According to S&P Global Prussian News, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) recently released data that predicted that coal production in the United States will reach 722 million tons in 2019, a decline of 4.3% from 2018; coal production in the United States will fall to 682 million tons by 2020, a drop of 5.6% from 2019. This forecast means that U.S. coal production is likely to reach its lowest level in nearly 40 years in two years.

Compared with January, EIA lowered its coal production forecast by 7.5 million tons this year, but increased its output forecast by more than 2 million tons in 2020. In terms of exports, the export volume is expected to be 101 million tons in 2019, down 13.3% from last year, while the export volume is expected to continue to decline to 93 million tons in 2020.

According to EIA’s forecast, coal consumption for power generation in the United States is estimated to be 583 million tons in 2019 and 547 million tons in 2020, down by 8.9% and 6.3% respectively. Meanwhile, the total coal consumption in the United States is expected to be 636 million tons this year and to drop to 599 million tons in 2020.

At the same time, EIA data show that in 2018, the proportion of thermal power in U.S. power generation will be 27.7%, while in 2019 and 2020, the proportion of thermal power will be reduced to 26% and 24%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 25.9% and 23.7%.

Although coal-fired power generation is expected to decline gradually, EIA forecasts that natural gas power generation will rise. EIA predicts that natural gas will account for 36% of electricity generation in 2019, up from 35.8% in January and 37% in 2020.