US President Trump’s claim that a trade agreement with China was “very, very close” has boosted the market. But data on China’s imports of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal show that once trade flows are cut off, it will be difficult to recover.

Data released by China Customs on Monday showed that China imported zero crude oil from the United States in January for the second consecutive month. China imported 245,616 barrels of crude oil per day from the United States in 2018, an increase of 25% over the previous year.

Crude oil was originally one of the commodities that could effectively reduce China’s trade surplus with the United States, but the emergence of Trump trade tariffs led to the strangulation of crude oil trade between China and the United States, although crude oil was not affected by Beijing’s retaliatory measures.

Despite Trump’s conciliatory remarks and the extension of negotiations between senior Chinese and American officials, there are few signs that trade activity is resuming.

Refinitiv’s ship tracking and port data show that no U.S. crude oil is expected to arrive in China in February and March. Data show that a tanker carrying nearly 2 million barrels will arrive in mid-April.

Given that the United States sails to China in the Gulf of Mexico for six to eight weeks, a significant increase in crude oil imports from the United States will occur as early as May or June.

LNG and coal trade have almost disappeared.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a similar situation. According to Lufford data, only one shipment was unloaded in January and no scheduled arrivals were made in the coming months.

Seven shipments were unloaded in January 2018, and a total of 33 shipments of LNG with a total of 2.3 million tons were imported in the whole year of 2018.

Coal is another more successful American energy export product hit by the trade war. Refinitiv data show that no U.S. coal was unloaded in January.

Data show that there is only one unloading so far in February, and another is expected before the end of the month. There are two plans for March.

In 2018, China imported 3.6 million tons of U.S. coal, the largest in April, with seven batches of coal coming ashore.

If a proper agreement is reached between China and the United States, the momentum of a sharp decline in China’s energy imports from the United States may be reversed since the intensification of the trade dispute between China and the United States last year.

But considering that it takes time to re-establish trade relations, order and transport, it may actually take longer than Lamp thought it would be.

Given China’s apparent and growing demand for crude oil, liquefied natural gas and even coal, especially high-quality coking coal for steelmaking, energy procurement may be the best way for China to increase imports of American products.

But Beijing has shown that China can quickly and easily stop buying American energy products.

U.S. supply accounts for a small proportion of China’s total imports, and Beijing has no difficulty in procuring alternative goods.

The United States accounted for only 2.7% of China’s crude oil imports in 2018. LNG imports from the United States accounted for about 4.3% of the total and coal imports from the United States accounted for about 1.3%.

But as China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and coal and the second largest importer of liquefied natural gas, a small increase in the share purchased from the United States will soon bring a large US dollar revenue to the United States.