In 2018, China’s aluminium industry deepened the structural reform of the supply side, strictly controlled the new capacity of electrolytic aluminium, promoted the replacement of the capacity of electrolytic aluminium, and the overall operation of the industry was stable. However, the impact of trade frictions gradually emerged, production costs continued to rise, industry benefits declined, and the overall development situation was not optimistic. First, the output increased year on year, and the growth rate of aluminium materials decreased. In 2018, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminium and aluminium materials reached 72.53 million tons, 35.8 million tons and 45.54 million tons, respectively, increasing by 9.9%, 7.4% and 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Considering the adjustment of statistical data, the output growth rate of electrolytic aluminium increased by 5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Due to the impact of trade frictions and the low domestic consumption, the growth rate of aluminium production fell by 7 percentage points last year.

Second, prices have fallen, costs have risen and benefits have declined significantly. In 2018, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminium was 14262 yuan/ton, down 1.8% year on year. Due to environmental protection rectification, bauxite prices continued to rise, coal prices rose, energy saving and emission reduction costs of enterprises increased, the comprehensive production cost of electrolytic aluminium increased significantly year on year. In 2018, the profit of the aluminium industry was 37.2 billion yuan, down 40% from the same period last year. Among them, the profit of aluminium mining and processing is 700 million yuan, up 19.6% from the same period last year; the profit of aluminium smelting and aluminium processing industry is 112 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan, down 54.6% and 31.4% respectively.

Third, capacity replacement has been accelerating and industrial structure has been further optimized. Since the issuance of Notice on Capacity Replacement of Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprises through Mergers and Restructuring (No. 12, 2018), more than 4 million tons of capacity of electrolytic aluminium have been replaced across provinces. Among them, more than 3 million tons of capacity have been transferred to energy-rich areas such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. While maintaining strict control over the high-pressure situation of capacity of electrolytic aluminium, the industrial structure of electrolytic aluminium has been continuously improving. Change.

Fourthly, the export of aluminium materials has increased substantially, and the international trade environment is not optimistic. Influenced by the fluctuation of the price difference of aluminium materials at home and abroad and the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, China’s aluminium exports in 2018 amounted to 5.23 million tons, an increase of 23.4% over the same period last year. The suspension of production at Heidelou Alumina Plant in Brazil has resulted in a shortage of alumina supply overseas, with China exporting 950,000 tons of alumina annually. China Bauxite Group, Weiqiao and other overseas bauxite resources development projects continued to advance. The chain reaction of trade frictions such as the United States, the European Union, Mexico and Vietnam is highlighted. The external development environment is becoming increasingly severe. The future export of aluminium materials will face a severe situation.

In 2019, the environment at home and abroad is becoming more and more complex, the deep impact of trade friction is about to emerge, the downstream consumption situation is not optimistic, and the downward pressure of the aluminum industry is still large. Our department will continue to deepen the structural reform of the supply side, continue to unite with relevant parties to maintain a high-pressure situation of strictly controlling the new capacity of electrolytic aluminium, strictly implement the policy of replacing the capacity of electrolytic aluminium, study and establish a long-term mechanism of resolving excess capacity by means of market-oriented legalization, actively expand the application of aluminium, and guide the high-quality development of the aluminium industry.