According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 16th to 23rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3655 yuan/ton to 3618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%, a month on month decrease of 1.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%. The domestic asphalt market is fluctuating and falling, international crude oil prices are weak and consolidating, and the asphalt fundamentals are biased towards bearish factors. Early maintenance and production equipment have gradually resumed, and the market supply has increased. However, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and actual delivery is average.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, with the main bearish factors being the delayed expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, continued market concerns about the economic and demand outlook, and an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of May 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.90 per barrel, a decrease of $0.98 or 1.2%.

On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the asphalt market is relatively light. With the improvement of weather, terminal demand has increased, but business inquiries are still the main focus, and transactions are still mainly in demand.

As of the close of May 23, the petroleum asphalt futures market closed down. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3688 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3698 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3653 yuan/ton. It closed at 3669 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 15% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.51%. The trading volume was 194635 lots, and the position was 224567 lots, with a daily increase of 12472.

In the future market forecast, crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with increased supply and slight differences in demand between the north and south. Asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22nd, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 8525 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 8.95% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 7825 yuan/ton on May 13th; Compared to May 1st, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 11.44% to 7650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde has surged, supported by downstream demand, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship. The price of isobutyraldehyde has stabilized after rising.

Strong consolidation of raw material propylene prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of propylene was quoted at 6882.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94% compared to the volatile price of propylene at 6818.6 yuan/ton on May 15; Compared to the quotation of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st, it has slightly increased by 1.21%. Crude oil prices have stopped falling and stabilized, with support from propylene costs and strong consolidation of propylene prices. Propylene units have restarted and increased, with sufficient supply of propylene and cautious downstream procurement. Propylene enterprises have generally sold their goods, while propylene prices have fluctuated and stabilized. Cost support still exists, while support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde remains.

Downstream favorable support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of new pentanediol was quoted at 10650 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% compared to the price of 10100 yuan/ton quoted on May 15. The quotation of neopentyl glycol enterprises has significantly increased, with strong cost support. The neopentyl glycol market is operating strongly, and the inventory of neopentyl glycol factories is low. Currently, orders are being scheduled until next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell spot goods, resulting in an increase in the price of neopentyl glycol in the market.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the strong consolidation of raw material propylene prices still supports the rise in isobutyraldehyde costs; In terms of supply and demand, the price of isobutyraldehyde has fluctuated and increased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde has tightened, and the price of neopentyl glycol has significantly increased. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and demand support for isobutyraldehyde is limited. In the future, cost support still exists, supply and demand are tight, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises are generally willing to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

The market for ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on May 1st, which was 8300 yuan/ton. The industrial chain support is limited, and the ortho xylene market remained stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene has stopped falling and risen, and the cost support for adjacent xylene has increased this week; The price of phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and stabilized, while the demand support for ortho xylene has weakened. The price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized this week.

The price of raw material mixed with xylene has stopped falling and risen

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 21, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7560 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% from the price of mixed xylene on May 14, which was 7460 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, while the cost of mixed xylene has increased. Some mixed xylene equipment has maintenance plans, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. The rise of mixed xylene provides significant support.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market tends to stabilize after rising

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 21, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.75% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 14, which was 7737.50 yuan/ton; Compared to May 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 2.98% to 7720 yuan/ton. This week, the market for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased, sales are good, and the supply of ortho phthalic anhydride is tight. The market price of phthalic anhydride is strong, and downstream demand is strong. Purchasing high priced phthalic anhydride is cautious, and it is expected that the market will operate at a high level in the short term.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene has stopped falling and risen, and the cost support for neighboring xylene has increased; In terms of supply and demand, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized after rising, while the supply of ortho benzene has tightened and the demand has stabilized. The support for the rise of ortho benzene still exists. Overall, the supply and demand support for rising costs has weakened, and there is still support for the future rise in the neighboring benzene market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. On May 19th, the rare earth index was 404 points, a decrease of 59.88% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-24), and an increase of 49.08% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have slightly declined, while the price trend of metallic praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide was 407500 yuan/ton, with a mid month price drop of 0.61%; The price of neodymium metal was 517500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 410000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.61% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium metal is 537500 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 500000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.99% in the middle of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 400000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% in the middle of the month.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have slightly declined, and the supply in the domestic light rare earth market is relatively stable. However, some trading enterprises have offered to sell at a lower price, resulting in a slight decrease in the prices of mainstream rare earth products. There has been no significant improvement in the demand of downstream application enterprises. Magnetic material enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, but their purchasing sentiment has recently declined. Downstream enterprise raw material inventories have remained low for a long time, and the price of light rare earths is weak. The recent implementation of the policy of exchanging old for new equipment in China has boosted domestic demand for rare earths, limiting the decline in the light rare earth market.

According to statistics, in April 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870000 and 850000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 36% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and 32.3%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 32.4% of the total sales of new vehicles. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. The export volume of rare earths in April was 4566 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%; The total export volume of rare earths from January to April was 18049.5 tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The import volume of rare earths in April was 13145.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%; The total import volume of rare earths from January to April was 48842.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, which brings certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the ordering and purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. It is expected that the light rare earth market will mainly fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

The domestic titanium tetrachloride market remained stable this week. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10675.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (10825.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of titanium concentrate is running at a high level, which puts pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises are losing money, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising.

The downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, and the current market trading situation is average.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere in the market. Recently, the titanium tetrachloride market has mainly stabilized and consolidated temporarily.

The domestic price trend of fluorite continues to rise, with an average price of 3781.25 yuan/ton as of the 16th, an increase of 7.08% from the beginning of the year price of 3531.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 20.52%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting mining and tight supply of fluorite

In 2024, due to the impact of mine safety rectification, mining enterprises have insufficient production capacity, and the gaming situation in the fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In terms of upstream mining, there is tension, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, some mine accidents have led to safety hazard inspections in the region’s mines. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the production of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is tight, and the inventory of fluorite has further decreased in the second quarter. The overall market prosperity is high, and the price of fluorite is rising.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid is rising, and refrigerant production is still feasible

The domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid is increasing, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China has risen to 11200-11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.93% compared to the beginning of the year. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is on the rise, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal. The rise in hydrofluoric acid prices is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase according to demand, and the domestic fluorite market is rising.

In 2024, downstream refrigerant prices have significantly increased, and the refrigerant industry has a high enthusiasm for starting production. In the second quarter, due to entering the peak consumption season, dealer purchases have increased, and the price trend of R22 has increased. The mainstream of negotiations is between 25000 and 27000 yuan/ton. The new quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is good, and some other refrigerant products have recently seen a rise in prices, which has affected the upward trend of the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Market forecast: The recent national fluorite mine safety rectification action has begun for more than two months, and the risk investigation work has reached its peak. It is difficult to improve the supply in the short term, and fluorite prices still have an upward trend in the short term; However, as mines gradually resume work and the peak season of the refrigerant industry comes to an end, coupled with limited acceptance by hydrofluoric acid enterprises, the long-term upward pressure is increasing, and the price of fluorite is constrained.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of this week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4850.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%, a month on month increase of 2.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.99%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average in a supply-demand game state. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the methanol market has been weak and volatile, with poor cost support. Polyformaldehyde production is normal, and orders are scheduled for shipment. Polyformaldehyde analysts at Shengyishe predict that prices may slightly decline.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 14th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9333 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the price of benzoic acid was 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% from last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly decreased this week. On May 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, and on May 7th, the price of mixed xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from last week. International crude oil has experienced strong fluctuations, and the cost support for mixed xylene has strengthened. The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the pressure on port supply has slightly eased. Part of the early maintenance equipment is gradually restarting, and downstream equipment is not operating high, resulting in limited support for xylene. The price has slightly decreased due to this impact. The mainstream price of meta xylene is stable, and the device is operating normally.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has increased this week. On May 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan/ton, and on May 7th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3% from last week. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has returned to a relatively high level, and the supply of goods from suppliers is sufficient. The demand for downstream PTA and EVA, as well as the export volume of acetic acid, have increased simultaneously. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid has risen.

In terms of demand

Under the support of downstream polyester bottle chip costs, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, maintaining market stability. The supply of polyester chips in the market is tight, manufacturers have improved their shipments, and the market atmosphere has rebounded.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the recent rebound in international crude oil has provided some support for isophthalic acid, and some domestic factories and equipment have undergone maintenance, leading to an expected decline in production. In the short term, with certain positive support from the supply and demand pattern, the market is likely to continue to operate strongly.

This week, the epoxy propane market is mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is based on 9225.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price on May 6th.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: Raw material propylene. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6774 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6852 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15%. After the holiday, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market slightly increased, while the raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated narrowly after the holiday. The cost side is still supported.

Supply and demand side: After the holiday, the spot supply in the East China market is tight, and the inventory pressure in the Shandong market has eased. The supply side supports the market with a strong mentality. On the demand side, downstream is observing and following up on demand in moderation, and overall performance is average.

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the propylene market for future raw materials may have a narrow consolidation operation, while the liquid chlorine market is still viable, and short-term cost support may continue. On the supply side, there may be an increase, but the pressure is temporarily controllable. On the demand side, wait and see is the main focus, and supply and demand support is average. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may fluctuate steadily with a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands fluctuating. As of May 11th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7807.14 yuan/ton, up or down -0.46% from the price level on May 6th.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, international crude oil prices have weakened due to the downward trend before and after the holiday. Recently, due to the positive expectation of OPEC+production reduction and the influence of international geopolitical factors, oil prices have rebounded. Meanwhile, due to its impact, the overall price of propylene has increased. The domestic market momentum for propane is relatively strong, with strong price movements. Overall, the cost support for PP has remained relatively strong in recent times.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average load this week is around 75%, which is comparable to the pre holiday level. And there are still maintenance plans for enterprises such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Ningbo Jinfa in the later stage, leading to an expected reduction in market supply. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually being digested, and supply pressure is expected to decrease. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises has generally remained stable, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having a comprehensive operating rate of about 42%, 62%, and 57% at the end of the month, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere is average.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has experienced a narrow decline. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7712.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.16% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 2.66% compared to the same period last year. After the holiday, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises for PP fiber materials have a stable and stable load, with an average operating rate of around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and it is expected that the future market of fiber materials may still be constrained by weak demand and consolidation operations.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this week. As of May 11th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is around 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.13%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the temperature will heat up in May, and the digestion of terminal products will slow down. Melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the overall polypropylene market has fluctuated and stabilized after the holiday. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. There is an expectation of contraction in the supply of goods, and the supply pressure has eased. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is essential to maintain production. The current supply and demand in the market are relatively weak, and the dominant force is still the cost side. It is expected that the PP market will maintain a consolidation operation in the short term.