Price trend

Last week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak, with spot prices slightly reduced. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11533.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -3.35% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market operated weakly last week, and the supply side load of domestic EVA enterprises continued to decrease to around 74%. Due to the maintenance of some petrochemical plants in the early stage, the market supply has decreased narrowly. However, due to the wavering market confidence, some auction transaction prices fell, and manufacturers’ pricing was steadily lowered. EVA suppliers have loosened their support for spot goods.

From the demand side perspective, last week’s EVA terminal enterprises started production steadily with little movement, and their stocking situation tended to lag behind. The logic of purchasing and consumption for just in need remained unchanged. Among them, there are very few new orders for traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires. Merchants are affected by the downward market trend, resulting in an increase in actual orders, discounts, and transactions. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, last week’s EVA prices continued to be weak. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load has slightly declined, and the ex factory prices of petrochemical plants have loosened narrowly. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 796 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 790 yuan/ton on April 19th. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market decreased by 0.84%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price slightly declined. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises mainly focus on procurement in demand, and the trading atmosphere is flat. The export market is still weak and difficult to improve in the short term. This week, urea prices have risen, but after the increase, the market has a resistance to high prices, and new transactions are limited, which has a certain impact on ammonium sulfate. As of April 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 750-790 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 790-810 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of ammonium sulfate has slightly fallen recently. The export market is sluggish, and there is currently no positive news in the market due to downstream demand for procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate price will mainly consolidate and operate within a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have shown a delayed trend this week, with overall stability and small fluctuations. On April 18, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 109000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the average price of 108800 yuan/ton on April 14. On April 18th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 115800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% compared to the average price of 116800 yuan/ton on April 14th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week, with the spot price difference between industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate continuously widening. In terms of supply, the production recovery and profit margin restoration of lithium salt enterprises after maintenance have led to a continuous increase in lithium carbonate production. However, it is understood that some lithium salt companies have reported that their supply in April has already been fully pre-sale with long orders and no discount coefficient. Currently, there is no excess supply for individual sales, so the liquidity of lithium carbonate spot is still relatively tight.

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode enterprises purchase low-priced goods from a small number of lithium salt enterprises and the trading market to supplement the supply of scattered orders outside the long-term contract. However, their wait-and-see sentiment rises as prices fall, and there has been no replenishment action by positive electrode enterprises in the spot market. Recently, the market has entered the signing of long-term orders in May, with a slight decrease in prices, in order to purchase more low-priced goods from the trading market to supplement supply. However, the purchasing price from lithium salt enterprises remains high.

The lithium hydroxide market has fluctuated and risen narrowly. Recently, the prices of spodumene concentrate have remained stable and the prices of lithium carbonate have fluctuated slightly. Cost support is relatively stable, and the inventory of finished products on the supply side is in the middle position. The downstream high nickel production is extremely stable, with an increase in production. The market atmosphere is active, and the demand side has increased to support the market’s price boosting mentality. However, downstream buyers of high priced raw materials are still cautious, and the lithium hydroxide market is mainly adjusting narrowly.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate has slightly declined, as lithium iron phosphate enterprises tend to negotiate orders based on actual discounts on the price of lithium carbonate purchased. Therefore, recently, with the slight decrease in the price of battery grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium iron phosphate has loosened and decreased.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures continues to fluctuate, and the total position continues to decline. On April 18th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 109900 yuan/ton, the closing price was 108400 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 111850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.73%. The transaction volume was 131600 lots and the position was 174354 lots.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that as the May Day holiday approaches, downstream markets will gradually increase their demand for raw material reserves. Downstream buyers mainly buy from the trade market on dips, and the purchase price of lithium salt plants remains high. The price difference between industrial carbon and electric carbon continues to widen, which continues to benefit the demand for electric carbon. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will mainly operate steadily.

Technical prediction of asphalt market: it will continue to operate at a high level

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 28.30%.

At present, the price of asphalt is rising, but it is still at a historically low level, with monitoring levels of one year, two years, and three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average asphalt price in the past three years is 3928.83 yuan/kg, with a median value of 4120.17 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 3421 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 4819.33 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 245.57 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1152.76 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 17th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3629 yuan/ton to 3699 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93%, a month on month increase of 2.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%. Driven by the rise of international crude oil, cost support has strengthened, and asphalt spot prices continue to rise. The demand for spot resources has differentiated, with the temperature in the northern region recovering slowly and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm being limited; The widespread rainfall in the south has hindered the demand for essential goods, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. In the short term, the spot price of asphalt remains relatively strong, with a focus on strength in the north and weakness in the south for the time being.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises stabilized production after resuming production in April, driving a slight increase in asphalt production in Shandong region, and the overall supply remains abundant; The main refinery in Xinjiang, Ke Petrochemical, saw a slight increase, driving a slight increase in overall supply. There is a bearish impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and in the short term, oil prices will continue to operate at high levels. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of continued upward trend after later adjustments, mainly due to the unresolved supply side risks and the difficulty in cooling geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States will stimulate gasoline demand. Both supply and demand will provide strong support for oil prices. As of April 17th, Brent crude oil futures closed slightly lower, with the settlement price of the main contract at $90.02 per barrel, a decrease of $0.08.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, demand for asphalt is slowly recovering, with limited low-priced resources and some shipments being supported. In the southern region, there are mostly cloudy and rainy weather, which hinders demand for asphalt. There is mainly a small amount of speculative low-priced demand. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of April 17th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has fallen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3788 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3797 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3756 yuan/ton. It closed at 3768 yuan/ton in the last trading day, a decrease of 36% compared to the previous settlement day, a decrease of 0.95%. The trading volume was 127739 lots, and the position was 227515 lots, with a daily increase of -1588.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and asphalt supply remains abundant, with slight differences in demand between the north and south. The asphalt analyst of Business Society predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On April 16th, the price of pure benzene was 8707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from last week. The trading volume in the petroleum benzene market is flat. The holding party is reluctant to sell at a low price, while the demand side continues to be bearish and discusses differences. Most refineries in Shandong have been experiencing continuous poor shipments, and today’s prices continue to decline, with small orders in demand being sold.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On April 16th, the price of nitric acid was 1753 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93% compared to last week. The quotation for concentrated nitric acid has increased, and currently there are more inquiries in the nitric acid market. Supported by costs, the price of nitric acid has risen, and the market transaction atmosphere is positive.

In terms of demand

There is currently no significant rebound in market demand, and customers with demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products are in urgent need of purchasing. Downstream trading is not active.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the shipment of meta phenylenediamine remains stable, mainly based on orders, with a focus on market transactions in the later stage. It is expected that the price of meta phenylenediamine will remain stable.

Last week (April 8-14), under the influence of upstream raw material prices, the price of nylon filament stopped falling and rebounded. Sinopec raised the price of high-end caprolactam last week, and the high-speed spinning chip market for PA6 chips surged during the week, with strong cost support; The overall supply of nylon filament industry remains high, with most of the manufacturer’s equipment operating stably and sufficient inventory; The shipment situation of downstream manufacturers is poor, and their willingness to replenish raw materials is not strong. There are few negotiations on dips, and there is currently no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have rebounded, and cost support is gradually increasing. The nylon filament market is operating at a normal level, with sufficient inventory from manufacturers and downstream markets purchasing on demand. Both positive and negative factors coexist in the market. Driven by the rise in cost, the nylon filament market prices have stopped falling and rebounded.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (April 8-14), the price of nylon filament followed the rise of raw materials. As of April 14, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18860 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.86%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.76%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) was reported at 19750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%.

Upward trend of raw materials

Last week (April 8-14), the prices of crude oil and pure benzene in the market fluctuated at high levels, while the prices of PA6 chips in the conventional spinning and slicing market were tight and rising. The positive support from upstream and downstream markets coexisted, driving up the price trend of caprolactam in the spot market. As a result, the price of high-end caprolactam in Sinopec increased last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of caprolactam in the domestic market as of April 14 was 13167 yuan/ton, an increase of 443 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 3.49%. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will continue to be strong and upward.

Supply and demand

Last week (April 8-14), nylon manufacturers maintained a stable operating load and sufficient supply of goods. As April entered, downstream demand gradually recovered, but it was lower than expected. Downstream weaving factories mainly purchased according to demand, and the transaction atmosphere was mainly weak. The downstream ability to receive raw materials was limited, and some nylon filament manufacturers expressed signs of downstream demand weakening. It is expected that there will be little improvement in demand in the later stage.

Future Market Forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam and the market for PA6 high-speed spinning chips may still show an upward trend in prices, with good cost support. Nylon filament manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply. The enthusiasm for stocking in the downstream market is not high, and procurement is mainly based on demand. In the short term, the situation is still strong above and weak below. Business Society analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the consolidation and operation of raw materials, and prices may continue to rise slightly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5000.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 4975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, a month on month decrease of 2.21%, and the current price has dropped by 10.76% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has declined, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic market price of potassium chloride is at a relatively high level, with acceptable cost support, but downstream demand remains weak, and the sales of potassium nitrate in the market are poor, resulting in a decline in potassium nitrate prices. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has been consolidating. The market price of 60% potassium chloride crystals in China is mostly between 2300-2390 yuan/ton, while the price of 57% powder for small factories in Qinghai is based on 2050-2150 yuan/ton; Border trade areas: 62% of Russian white potassium prices are mostly between 2150-2200 yuan/ton.

Recently, some varieties of potassium chloride in the domestic market have been in a situation of no stock and no price. At present, the market supply of goods is relatively concentrated, mostly in the hands of large traders, with a strong intention to raise prices. It is expected that the potassium nitrate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be cautious.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 on April 11th was 5700 yuan/ton, which is 5633 yuan/ton higher than the average price on April 5th. The domestic chlorinated paraffin price has increased by 1.18%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has fallen, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has increased. The cost side has fluctuated, and overall support is good. Driven by cost assistance, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have raised their quotations. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is required. Detailed discussions on actual orders are needed. As of April 11th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5600-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has dropped this week. The current market trend is not good, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has risen this week, and the market transaction atmosphere is improving. Sales are smooth, and actual order negotiations are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the market for chlorinated paraffin has recently risen. At present, there is still support on the cost side, and the demand side is mainly based on demand. Today, the price of liquid chlorine has slightly fallen, and the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will stabilize and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On April 10th, the price of pure benzene was 8720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% compared to last week. Some traders are bearish in the future and actively sell their holdings, resulting in an increase in market commodity volume and average transactions.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On April 10th, the price of nitric acid was 1693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last week. Market transactions are average.

M-phenylenediamine: The domestic price of m-phenylenediamine has slightly decreased this week. On April 10th, the price of phenylenediamine was 3600 yuan/ton, a 5% decrease from last week. The purchasing power of downstream customers for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products is not strong, and downstream trading is not active.

This week, the trading atmosphere in the resorcinol market was light, with downstream tire industry construction remaining stable, and insufficient buying in the dye and pesticide intermediate markets. It is expected that the market for resorcinol will maintain stable operation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 9th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36000 yuan/ton. On April 2nd, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 37900 yuan/ton, a 5% decrease from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On April 9th, the price of pure benzene was 8723 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% compared to last week. It is expected that there is a high possibility of consolidation in the East China pure benzene market today. Some traders are bearish in the future and actively sell their holdings, resulting in an increase in market commodity volume and weakened buying sentiment.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On April 9th, the price of nitric acid was 1703 yuan/ton, a 2.69% decrease from last week. Market transactions are average.

In terms of demand

The overall market demand is average, with weak purchasing power from customers for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products, and less active downstream trading.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the shipment situation of meta phenylenediamine is relatively poor, with orders being the main focus. In the later stage, we will focus on market transactions. Expected weak consolidation of meta phenylenediamine prices.