According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 1st to 8th, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 11525 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year increase of 35.13%. The prices of foreign and domestic production enterprises remain strong, with some bidding sources being sold at a premium, providing support for the market situation. Some devices have been restarted, but there have also been device maintenance, resulting in slight fluctuations in domestic production. The operating load of major downstream industries continues to decline, and demand expectations remain weak.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Recently, geopolitical factors have had a greater impact on international crude oil prices than fundamentals, forming a major guide for oil prices. The current market focus is on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with the standoff between Iran and Israel remaining the focus. As of April 5th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.6%.

In terms of naphtha, the international crude oil price increase supports the naphtha market, and refineries actively push for price increases; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8514.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains at 11600 yuan/ton. The maintenance of a 70000 ton/year equipment in Lianyungang Petrochemical is expected to take place in early April and resume in mid May. A 200000 ton/year unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical is still under maintenance. The supply of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream products of butadiene have a stable and rising market, with ABS prices rising significantly and only nitrile rubber prices falling slightly. The inverted profits of downstream industries have led to relatively low production levels, with a small amount of inquiries from essential needs before and after the holiday, and downstream contracts being mainly digested. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on April 5th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1425-1435 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1445-1455 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remains stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1055-1065 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 985-995 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, there is still a positive impact on the supply side, but the profits of most downstream industries are inverted, and the overall performance of market demand is weak. As a result, butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be weak and mainly consolidating.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have fluctuated downward this week. As of April 7th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1.78% from last week’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7785.71 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.28% compared to last week.

The price of raw material PP has slightly increased, and the operation of raw materials is relatively strong. There is support for low prices on the cost side. Film companies have low interest rates and limited room for profit margins.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises have a strong desire to replenish their inventory due to their urgent needs. Weak demand.

Future Market Forecast

The bearish and bullish game predicts that the CPP price will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future.

Recently (3.29-4.3), according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price quoted by 94% of anhydrous calcium chloride enterprises was 1325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week’s price, with a decrease of 2.39%. The market price of 94% anhydrous calcium chloride has been lowered, with a reference price of 1250-1450 yuan/ton including tax in Shandong and 1250.00 yuan/ton in the northwest market; The reference price for the Southwest region is 2400.00 yuan/ton, and the reference price for the Central South region is 2200.00 yuan/ton. This is for reference only, and actual orders are mainly negotiated.

Trend of raw material hydrochloric acid:

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of hydrochloric acid fell at the end of February, and the domestic price of hydrochloric acid plummeted by 8.11%. Although there was a rebound in early March, the overall support for the cost of calcium chloride was limited.

Downstream cement trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in March, construction sites in East China resumed work slowly, market demand was sluggish, clinker inventory was at a medium to high level, and sales pressure on enterprises was high. In order to ship goods, manufacturers led the way in lowering prices, resulting in a weak and declining cement market.

Market analysis:

Constrained by poor demand, manufacturers are seeking opportunities to ship and have lowered prices to stimulate outbound shipments; Affected by this, the market price of anhydrous 94% calcium chloride closely followed the downward adjustment. In terms of demand, the demand for goods was weak, stable, and cold, with overall supply exceeding demand.

Future Market Forecast:

Due to poor demand in the downstream industry of calcium chloride, coupled with sufficient supply from manufacturers, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is poor, and there is still a possibility of a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 2nd, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6625.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.79% compared to March 21st (the reference price of acrylic acid was 6262.50).

Since late March, the acrylic acid market has been continuously rising, mainly due to the cessation of decline and rise in raw material propylene prices, coupled with supply side inventory pressure, cost and supply support.

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, since the end of March, the price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, and costs have increased in the face of support from the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side: Since late March, some factory facilities have been shut down for maintenance, and the export market has performed well. The overall supply in the market has shrunk, and the support from the supply side is strong, which has boosted the price boosting mentality of the industry. As the end of the month approaches, some facilities in Shandong have resumed operation, and the supply side is still operating without pressure. The market’s low-priced supply has decreased, and the downstream operating load is low. Multi dimensional demand is mainly followed up, and the inquiry atmosphere is active. The mentality of purchasing high priced raw materials is still cautious.

Future Market Forecast:

From a cost perspective, the inventory of short-term raw material propylene enterprises is temporarily controllable, with downstream rigid demand procurement as the main source, which may still support the acrylic acid market. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no pressure on short-term supply inventory, and companies have weak intentions to lower prices. The mentality of price support still exists, and downstream demand may continue to follow suit. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material propylene prices.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1062 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the basic price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

In March, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend. In the early stages, the phosphate ore market remained stable and consolidated after a slight increase. At the beginning of the month, some mining enterprises in Sichuan Province in China raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, with an increase of about 10-30 yuan/ton. The overall focus of the phosphate ore market has slightly increased, driven by the exploration of rising prices in some regions.

In the latter half of the year, the domestic phosphate ore market experienced slight fluctuations. Due to factors such as geographical location and shipping situation, the phosphorus ore market in different regions of China has experienced slight fluctuations and fluctuations, resulting in a narrowing of the overall price difference between high and low prices on the market. As of March 31st, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Import and export data of phosphate ore from January to February 2024

In January 2024, China imported a total of 315800 tons of phosphate rock (including 315800 tons of unrolled phosphate rock and 100 kilograms of ground phosphate rock), an increase of 119800 tons or 61.12% compared to December 2023. The total import amount was 28.7277 million US dollars (including 28.7254 million US dollars for un milled apatite and 2250 US dollars for milled apatite), an increase of 66.19% compared to the previous period. The average import price was $90.95 per ton, a month on month increase of 3.16%.

In February 2024, China imported a total of 249100 tons of phosphate ore (including 151800 tons of unrolled apatite and 97300 tons of ground apatite), a decrease of 66800 tons or 26.82% compared to the previous month. The total import amount was 21.9829 million US dollars (including 13.8064 million US dollars for un milled apatite and 8.1765 million US dollars for milled apatite), a decrease of 23.48% compared to the previous period. The average import price was $24.91 per ton, a decrease of 2.96% compared to the previous month.

The cumulative import volume from January to February 2024 was 564900 tons, an increase of 512500 tons compared to the same period last year (52400 tons), a year-on-year increase of 978.11%.

In January 2024, China’s exports of phosphate ore totaled 3315 tons (all of which were unmilled apatite), a decrease of 21.85 million tons or 65.92% compared to December 2023. The total export amount was 1.0608 million US dollars, an increase of 15.78% compared to the previous period. The average export price is 320 US dollars per ton, a month on month increase of 92.09%.

China did not export phosphate ore in February 2024.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall trading volume of the domestic phosphate ore market is light and mild. Most downstream new orders for phosphate ore are mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the market continues to wait for demand to be released. The current supply and demand transmission is still good. According to the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate slightly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipment. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated and declined in March. From March 1st to 29th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9900 yuan/ton to 9668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34%, and the price increased by 2.64% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the price of cyclohexanone in China fell weakly. Recently, the raw material pure benzene weakened weakly, and the cost support was average. Downstream demand was weak, and the market spot supply was stable. High priced shipments were hindered, and there is currently no good news to drive it. The focus of market transactions has declined.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of cyclohexanone was observed and consolidated. Recently, the raw material pure benzene has been relatively strong, and the cost support has become stronger. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is stable, and downstream demand is mostly followed up. Due to a slight rebound in the pure benzene market, the cyclohexanone industry has stopped falling and stabilized.

In mid month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was operating weakly. Recently, the raw material pure benzene rose first and then fell, and the cost support changed from strong to weak. Downstream chemical fibers were purchased on demand, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone in the market was stable and abundant. Downstream high prices followed suit, but high price shipments were hindered, and the focus of transactions declined.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic price of cyclohexanone weakens. The supply of cyclohexanone enterprises is stable and abundant, but downstream demand is weak, and high prices are slowing down, leading to a decline in market transaction focus.

On the cost side, some pure benzene traders are bearish in the future and actively sell their holdings, resulting in an increase in market commodity volume and weakened buying sentiment, with average transactions. As of March 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8457.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. In March, the domestic caprolactam market continued to decline, and there was significant supply pressure on the caprolactam market. Some enterprises reduced their load or experienced short-term shutdowns. As of March 29th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Shengyishe is 12870.00 yuan/ton. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene tends to fluctuate strongly, and the cost pressure will not decrease. Downstream demand is high with on-demand procurement, and the market spot supply is stable and abundant. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7330.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The current price has dropped by 19.14% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in March. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently, with slight fluctuations this month. The overall market for raw material potassium chloride has fluctuated and declined, with poor cost support. The competition pressure in the potassium carbonate market has increased, and downstream factories have limited purchasing enthusiasm, mainly based on demand, with slight fluctuations in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7150-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in March was downward. The final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai is around 2200 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2150 yuan/ton.

At present, no new goods have arrived at the potassium chloride port, and downstream factories are not actively purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Since entering March, the acetonitrile market has shown a poor trend, with prices fluctuating downward. As of March 25th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to the beginning of the month (9840 yuan/ton). Until recently, there has been weak positive news on the supply side, and the atmosphere in the acetonitrile market has been lukewarm, causing the price center to shift downwards.

In terms of cost:

The favorable situation in the acetonitrile market is difficult to find. The price of raw material acetic acid has fallen this month, and some acetic acid companies have sufficient inventory and lowered their prices. However, the overall industry operating load is still high, and the supply is relatively stable. Downstream operation is still acceptable, and demand is normal. However, the atmosphere of spot negotiations is still relatively average, and operators remain wait-and-see. The trading focus of the acetic acid market is downward.

At present, the overall performance of demand in various downstream industries is average: the pharmaceutical industry market is undergoing consolidation and operation, but the market demand is average, and more follow-up is needed. Pesticides have experienced a narrow decline, with prices and inventories of pesticide products at historically low levels. Upstream costs continue to be under pressure, and some varieties have undergone significant market changes. There are also few spot goods in channel factories, indicating signs of bottoming out and rebounding. The solvent and reagent industry has been negotiated and organized, and the spot market has been multi-dimensional with negotiations and transactions. Enterprises have maintained on-demand consumption, and the industry is operating in a volatile manner.

Future Market Forecast

In the face of unfavorable supply side conditions, the price of acetonitrile has fluctuated downward, and some by-product production units are expected to restart in the later stage. In addition, there is a possibility of an increase in the start of synthesis, and downstream terminal demand is still average. The drag of demand may suppress the upward space of acetonitrile. Business Society analysts predict that the market price of acetonitrile will remain weak in the short term, with price fluctuations expected to range from 9700 to 11300 yuan/ton. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the supply of devices and the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 22, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with March 17, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8233 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%.

Entering late March, the domestic butanone market has shown a weak downward trend. Entering this week, the decline of butanone has intensified. Under the influence of insufficient demand, the overall negotiation focus of the butanone market continues to move towards a low level, and the low price of butanone in Shandong has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is quiet, new inquiries are relatively light, the mentality of operators is average, and the overall pace of market shipments is slow. As of March 22, the domestic market price of butanone is based on around 7800-8400 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100-300 yuan/ton within five days.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the effective support on the butanone market is limited, and the overall supply and demand circulation in the South and East China markets is weak. Downstream caution and wait-and-see sentiment are strong. Business Society butanone data analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on March 18th this week was 1800 yuan/ton, and on March 21st it was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% in price.

The quotation for concentrated nitric acid is weak, and the current transaction volume in the nitric acid market is still lower than expected. Manufacturers mainly sell orders, and the market situation is weak without positive support. The focus is on the market transaction situation.

During the period of 3.18-3.21, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 10.31%, the downstream aniline price increased by 1.78%, the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.49%, and the TDI price decreased by 1.19%. Downstream demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products is weak. Although there is support for upstream liquid ammonia prices, downstream demand is weak. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that nitric acid prices may mainly fluctuate weakly.