According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 1st to 8th, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 11525 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year increase of 35.13%. The prices of foreign and domestic production enterprises remain strong, with some bidding sources being sold at a premium, providing support for the market situation. Some devices have been restarted, but there have also been device maintenance, resulting in slight fluctuations in domestic production. The operating load of major downstream industries continues to decline, and demand expectations remain weak.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Recently, geopolitical factors have had a greater impact on international crude oil prices than fundamentals, forming a major guide for oil prices. The current market focus is on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with the standoff between Iran and Israel remaining the focus. As of April 5th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.6%.

In terms of naphtha, the international crude oil price increase supports the naphtha market, and refineries actively push for price increases; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8514.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains at 11600 yuan/ton. The maintenance of a 70000 ton/year equipment in Lianyungang Petrochemical is expected to take place in early April and resume in mid May. A 200000 ton/year unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical is still under maintenance. The supply of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream products of butadiene have a stable and rising market, with ABS prices rising significantly and only nitrile rubber prices falling slightly. The inverted profits of downstream industries have led to relatively low production levels, with a small amount of inquiries from essential needs before and after the holiday, and downstream contracts being mainly digested. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on April 5th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1425-1435 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1445-1455 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remains stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1055-1065 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 985-995 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, there is still a positive impact on the supply side, but the profits of most downstream industries are inverted, and the overall performance of market demand is weak. As a result, butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be weak and mainly consolidating.