According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of styrene in Shandong was 8000 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 8560.00 yuan/ton on December 31st, with a year-on-year increase of 7.00%. The lowest point of the price trend appeared at around 7163.33 yuan/ton at the end of June, and the lowest point appeared in mid September at 9766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.34% from the lowest point.

styrene

In 2023, the overall price of styrene showed a trend of “fluctuating decline, rise, and fluctuating decline”. From the monthly K-bar chart of Business Society, the number of months in which styrene prices fell in 2023 was more than the number of months in which they rose. Among them, July had the largest upward trend, reaching 15.29%, and June had the largest downward trend, reaching 8.34%.

The specific market situation of styrene in 2023 is as follows:

In January, before the Spring Festival, under optimistic expectations after the epidemic was lifted, the price of styrene continued to rise and reached 9000 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has recovered slowly, with prices falling back to 8400 yuan/ton in February, March, and April.

In May, weak costs and pessimistic macroeconomic sentiment dragged down prices, with prices continuing to decline from 8200 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 5.84%. In June, due to the continued downward shift in raw material prices and an increase in port inventory, prices further declined, with a monthly decline of 8.34%.

In the third quarter, there were many unplanned maintenance and slow restarts of the styrene unit, resulting in a supply increase that was lower than expected; On the cost side, as crude oil enters the peak season and major oil producing countries continue to reduce production, oil prices continue to rise. At the same time, pure benzene continues to deplete inventory and supply and demand are tight, leading to a stronger price; Multiple positive factors are driving the price center of styrene to continue to rise.

In the fourth quarter, prices fluctuated horizontally. The maintenance of the styrene plant is still concentrated, with relatively low production and low port inventory, which provides good support for prices. The overall stability of downstream construction is maintained, and there is still a demand for styrene. The supply and demand of pure benzene are tight, and the price is relatively firm. Therefore, the price trend of styrene deviates from crude oil and remains fluctuating in the range of 8300-9000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of styrene market in 2024:

Cost side

In 2023, pure benzene inventory continued to decline and supply and demand were tight, supporting strong prices. The overall price center shifted upwards, and the mainstream price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated between 6040-8915 yuan/ton, with an annual increase of 10.51% as of December 31. Looking ahead to 2024, pure benzene will continue to maintain a tight supply-demand balance and be at the profitable end of the industry chain. The price trend will be relatively strong downstream. In 2024, pure benzene is expected to be put into production by 1.2 million tons, while major downstream industries such as styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are expected to build 4.28 million tons of production capacity. From the price trend, pure benzene prices will still be constrained by upstream and downstream factors, but overall performance is relatively strong, and it is expected that the market will continue to rise.

Supply side

Since 2020, styrene production capacity has rapidly expanded, with a growth rate of over 20%. In 2023, 3.755 million tons of new equipment were put into operation, with a total production capacity of 20.865 million tons, an increase of 19.81% compared to 2022. As shown in the above figure, there are plans to invest 2.8 million tons/year of production capacity in 2024, most of which are concentrated in the first half of the year, and the industry’s production capacity is still increasing. In the upcoming year 2023, styrene is still in a large production cycle, and the industrial chain will also experience concentrated production. The growth rate of production capacity in various core links upstream and downstream may reach a high level. Looking ahead, styrene is rapidly moving towards supply saturation or even excess.

Demand side

The demand for styrene mainly lies in the three downstream industries, with EPS accounting for 24%, PS accounting for 24%, and ABS accounting for 22%, totaling 70% of the total consumption. In recent years, with the expansion of PS and ABS production capacity, their proportion in styrene consumption has increased. In 2024, based on the initial estimation of the production plan and annual operating rate of the equipment, the new production of styrene is expected to reach 2.04 million tons, and the new demand from the three major downstream industries is expected to reach 4.6 million tons. The supply-demand gap is expected to be 2.56 million tons, indicating that the supply pressure of styrene will be alleviated. In summary, the increase in production capacity in the three downstream sectors is favorable for the styrene market.

styrene

The import volume of styrene in China in 2023 was 790500 tons, a decrease of 30.85% compared to 2022. The export volume of styrene from China in 2023 was 366200 tons, a decrease of 34.90% compared to 2022. Looking ahead to 2024, domestic styrene is still in the period of expanding production capacity, with abundant supply. It is expected that imports will continue to decline, and monthly imports may remain below 50000 tons/month. Affected by the continuous expansion of domestic production capacity, the profits of the equipment have been continuously compressed and have been in a state of loss or low profit for a long time. Some overseas equipment has also been affected and stopped production due to economic efficiency issues, resulting in a decrease in overseas production and an increase in domestic exports. Looking ahead to 2024, styrene exports are expected to maintain a stable and increasing trend.

The styrene data analyst from Business Society believes that in 2024, the price of styrene will be balanced by changes in cost guidance, import and supply volume, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm. From a cost perspective, pure benzene will continue to maintain a tight supply-demand balance and be at the profit end of the industry chain, with a relatively strong price trend compared to downstream. From the supply side perspective, production capacity continues to expand. From the demand side perspective, downstream production capacity continues to expand rapidly, and if the equipment is put into operation as scheduled, it will bring about a significant increase in demand. From the perspective of imports and exports, with the continuous increase of domestic production capacity, the proportion of imports and exports has reversed, and the proportion of exports has continued to increase. In summary, it is expected that the styrene market in 2024 will mainly increase compared to above 2023, and it is expected to operate mainly in the range of 7000 to 10000 yuan/ton.

Price: 2983 yuan/ton

Analysis: On February 5th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily decline in the main production area of Shandong was 2.19%. The main reason is that manufacturers try to ship as much as possible before the holiday, leading to an increase in ammonia emissions from large factories, as well as the resumption of work after some equipment failures and maintenance, resulting in a loose supply side performance. Last weekend, a large factory in Shandong lowered prices by over 300 yuan/ton. On Monday, dealers mostly reported lower prices, resulting in sluggish sales. And the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, urea remains weak in operation, and the weak demand side suppresses the price of liquid ammonia. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2800-3000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: Downstream procurement will slow down before the holiday, with sufficient supply and no improvement in downstream demand. It is expected that liquid ammonia will remain weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 4th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6410 yuan/ton, which is 0.31% lower than the reference average price of 6430 yuan/ton on January 29th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 4th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6366 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6366 yuan/ton on January 29th. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of hot process phosphoric acid slightly decreased, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The raw material prices have remained stable this week, and there have been no fluctuations in the cost side for the time being. At present, phosphoric acid factories and downstream enterprises are gradually on vacation, leading to a decrease in market supply and a weakening demand for terminal replenishment. As of February 4th, the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5950-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5450-6950 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market prices remained stable, with pre holiday market trading approaching its end and few new orders. As of February 4th, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The overall supply and demand adjustment of phosphate ore is not significant this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream stocking and winter storage of phosphate ore have come to an end, and the market has remained stable and organized. The fluctuation of phosphate ore market is relatively small, and the overall market is relatively quiet. As of February 4th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the phosphoric acid market has been stabilizing recently. The shutdown of phosphoric acid enterprises has begun to increase, and downstream replenishment demand has weakened. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will remain stable and operate steadily.

Recently (1.29-2.2), the market trend of ethyl acrylate has also remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of February 2, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in Shandong was 10600 yuan/ton,

The market price of ethyl acrylate in East China is 10500 yuan/ton, and in North China it is 10700 yuan/ton; The market price in South China is 10800 yuan/ton.

The market price of ethyl acrylate tends to stabilize for most of the time. With the increase in stocking demand before the Spring Festival, the overall price of the acrylic acid and ester industry chain has risen, driving the stable price of the ethyl acrylate market. However, downstream users still generally maintain a rhythm of essential purchase, and the market mostly maintains a low consolidation operation before and after the Spring Festival.

At present, the rise of the ethyl acrylate market is mainly affected by the rise of raw materials, with limited support from the raw material and spot ends. From the perspective of the acrylic ester industry chain, the ethyl acrylate market has the smallest fluctuation, and the pre holiday prices are mostly stable.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream domestic market slightly increased in January. The price of neopentyl glycol increased from 9800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.08%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 7.37% year-on-year. On January 31, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 14.19% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream distributors of new pentanediol have seen a slight increase in their quotes this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in January. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.09% at the end of the month. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, but due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of new pentanediol has increased.

Looking ahead, the overall trend of the new pentanediol market in mid to early February may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices fluctuated widely in January. At the beginning of the month, nickel prices were 130033.33 yuan/ton, but at the end of the month, nickel prices slightly dropped to 129550 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 0.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%.

LME nickel inventory

According to LME inventory, LME nickel inventory slightly increased in January.

Macroscopically, inflation data in the United States has slowed down, and the resilience of the US economy has increased. Relevant data shows that the core PCE price index in December recorded an annual rate of 2.9%, the lowest level in nearly three years. Prior to this, personal spending in the United States increased by 0.7% month on month in December, a new high since September 2023. Market optimism about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in March has weakened.

Supply side: Capacity expansion and clearance cycle. In December 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24500 tons, a month on month increase of about 6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.57%; It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 23700 tons in January 2024. Major overseas nickel companies resumed production in the third quarter, with good profits and weak willingness to proactively reduce production.

In terms of demand: Some terminal industries have high prosperity, but the growth rate of demand is not as fast as supply. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, and there is a very good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises “replenish inventory at low prices, but do not purchase at high prices.”. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory returned to neutral levels, and steel mills reduced production in January. The space for nickel beans used in new energy has been squeezed out. Last week, nickel prices rebounded, suppressing demand.

In summary, weak cost support and downstream buying on dips, coupled with policy uncertainty factors in the subsequent Indonesian election, have led to a more obvious attitude of downstream buying on dips and not buying at high prices. The basis is weak, and nickel prices have accumulated inventory for three consecutive weeks after rebounding. The maintenance of the MHP project in Indonesia has led to an increase in the intermediate product coefficient, continuous reduction in production and low inventory of nickel sulfate. There is a weak expectation of replenishment after the holiday, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to stabilize while exploring an increase. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate and grind to the bottom.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the focus of the domestic NMP market continued to shift downwards in January, indicating an overall weakness. At the beginning of January, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 12800 yuan/ton. On January 30th, the average price was 12566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83%.

2、 Analysis and Review

 
As of January 30th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ January 30th

East China region/ 12200-13000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 12500-13000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 12500-12800 yuan/ton

In January, the domestic NMP market continued to decline. As of the 30th, the mainstream retail price for electronic grade NMP in China was 12300-12800 yuan/ton. The BDO prices on the raw material side have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient support on the cost side. The demand side of NMP remains weak, approaching the Spring Festival, and downstream production enthusiasm is not high. We are preparing to take an early holiday. The NMP factory on the production side remains stable, with a weak mentality. The quotation follows the market trend, and the price bottoms out, reducing the room for downward adjustment.

The domestic BDO market fluctuated and declined in January. From January 1st to 30th, the average domestic BDO price dropped from 9535 yuan/ton to 9424 yuan/ton, with a 1.17% decrease in price during the cycle,

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and the market’s positive signals are weak. Currently, NMP is close to the bottom, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that NMP prices will consolidate and operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7510.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The current price has dropped by 18.68% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in January. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for two consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this month. The overall market situation of raw material potassium chloride has significantly declined, with poor cost support, poor downstream operating rates, and weak transactions in the potassium carbonate market, resulting in a sustained decline in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in January was downward. The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 8.91%. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market has slightly improved, with downstream pre holiday stocking. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on January 26, 2024 was 19136.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the aluminum price of 19563.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (January 1). This week, aluminum prices have started to stabilize and have risen by 1.54%.

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

News related to raw material alumina this week

On the domestic side, affected by the orange warning of heavy pollution weather, some alumina enterprises in Binzhou and Zibo areas of Shandong Province have implemented emergency emission reduction measures. As of now, the production capacity has been reduced by about 2.4 million tons per year, and the impact period may reach the end of the month.

In terms of overseas ores, some mines in Guinea have temporarily solved the diesel supply problem by signing an import contract with a certain fuel supply company through customs, involving an annual production capacity of about 15 million tons. Guinea’s mines have actively addressed diesel supply issues through various channels and have achieved initial results. However, the shortage of domestic ores still exists in the short term.

Inventory low, month on month inventory reduction this week

Social inventory is at an absolute low level. This week, social inventory continues to be depleted. As of January 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 412000 tons, with a month on month decrease. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly seven years.

Operating with strong fluctuations in the future market

This week, aluminum prices have stopped falling and stabilized. On the one hand, this is because aluminum prices have fallen below 19000 yuan/ton, stimulating downstream pre holiday stocking demand. On the other hand, the news about aluminum oxide is positive, and cost support has strengthened. At present, aluminum inventory is relatively low year-on-year, and the accumulation phenomenon is delayed, better than expected. In the future, we will focus on the dynamic changes in inventory. The short-term aluminum price fluctuates strongly.

Price trend in 2023:

The market situation of epichlorohydrin will decline in 2023. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of epoxy chloropropane for enterprises was 9100.00 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and 8125.00 yuan/ton on December 31, with a 10.71% decline in the market for the year.

In the first half of the year, the spot supply in the Jiangsu and Shandong markets was tight in January, and companies had a price boosting mentality. The market remained sluggish and stable before and after the Spring Festival, with small fluctuations in company quotations. In February, there was significant cost support, but downstream demand was weak, with only small purchases for basic needs. Factory shipments were under pressure, and cumulative inventory increased. The supply and demand side dragged down the market. The cost support for March still exists, with some epichlorohydrin units shutting down or operating at reduced loads. However, the demand support is weak, with downstream mainly consuming inventory raw materials. Market sentiment is under pressure, and the focus of epichlorohydrin negotiations is weak. In early April, some devices were in a state of shutdown, and the market spot supply was tight. Downstream inquiries increased, supporting the rise of the epichlorohydrin market. In the middle and late stages, as some devices gradually restarted, the market supply increased, and the demand side dominated the market trend, causing the epichlorohydrin market to fluctuate upwards. In May, the utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side remained low, but there was limited follow-up on the demand side. Downstream consumers consumed more inventory raw materials and mainly restocked on low demand. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the market was operating weakly. In June, the demand side dominated the market, mainly due to weak downstream epoxy resin operation, consumption of contract volume and inventory. The enthusiasm for entering the market inquiries was not high, and small orders for basic needs followed up. Market transactions continued to be under pressure, and holders offered to sell at a discounted price. With demand dragging down, the focus of negotiations in the epoxy chloropropane market continued to decline.

In the second half of the year, under the influence of supply and demand in July, the market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the month, downstream consumption contracts and inventory were mainly affected, and enterprise shipments were under pressure. High end negotiation prices declined. In the latter half of the year, the overall utilization rate of industry capacity was low, and the market supply was tight, supporting the rise of the market. The cost and supply side support in August are still acceptable, with downstream demand mainly following up and the market slightly rising. In September, the industry’s capacity utilization rate in the first half of the month was below 50%, and some companies had no inventory pressure. Downstream inquiries into the market increased, driving steady price increases for companies. In October, downstream consumption of inventory raw materials was the main trend, and small orders were followed up on buying dips. Holders were under pressure to ship, and some companies were offering discounts to ship. In November, spot supply was tight, but the weak demand led to a weak market trend. In December, some factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other regions shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. However, the main downstream epoxy resin transactions were limited, and the demand side support was weak. The market atmosphere was stagnant, and the market remained stable with little movement.

Market forecast for 2024:

Supply side: The production capacity of epichlorohydrin has maintained a growth trend in 2022 and 2023, with an additional production capacity of around 300000 tons in 2023. The production in 2023 has also slightly increased compared to 2022, and it is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show an incremental expectation in 2024.

On the demand side:

The main downstream epoxy resins, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, saw a decline in market prices in 2023. The starting price was 15833.33 yuan/ton, and the ending price was 13233.33 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 16.42%. In 2023, the production capacity utilization rate of the epoxy resin industry was low, and support for the epoxy chloropropane market was weak. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resins will continue to grow in 2024, More attention still needs to be paid to the impact of the production of epoxy resin on the market of epichlorohydrin.

Cost side: Upstream propylene: In 2023, the Chinese propylene market fluctuated and declined. Taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 7244.60 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, with a 5.19% decline in the domestic market. Based on a comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the center of gravity of propylene prices in 2024 may continue to decline compared to 2023, and the expected decline is relatively controllable.

Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2023 was 1368058 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 25.73%. In 2023, the total export volume of epichlorohydrin in China was 57860383 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 19.66%.

Comprehensive prediction:

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin will double increase in 2024, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will fluctuate narrowly in 2024, and more attention still needs to be paid to cost pressure.