According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride has recently slightly declined. As of January 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation method maleic anhydride remained at 7199.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the price of 7300.00 yuan/ton on January 15.

In terms of supply: Recently, the prices of major factories have remained stable, with limited new orders signed, and downstream demand for restocking has been the main focus. As of January 22nd, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6400 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The overall market for hydrogenated benzene is on the rise, while the supply side is expected to increase due to the recent rise in hydrogenated benzene prices. Currently, enterprises are actively starting production, and some enterprises that have undergone preliminary maintenance have resumed production. The operating rate has slightly increased this week, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene is expected to increase. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises undergo maintenance, but as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have varying degrees of stocking plans, so the market expects overall good demand in the near future.

Recently, the international crude oil market has been volatile, with the upstream naphtha market mainly consolidating at a high level and the n-butane market remaining stable. As of January 22, the price in Shandong is around 5100 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Currently, the unsaturated resin market is about to shut down for a holiday, with weak downstream demand and average overall market trading.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the current maleic anhydride factory quotation is mainly stable, and downstream unsaturated resin is about to stop production for vacation, with limited demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will consolidate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2925 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2825 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.33%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2700-2860 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2500 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in spot prices. Mainstream distributors of potassium chloride have seen a decline in their quotes during the week.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7440 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7400 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.68% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5275 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.94%. The weekend price fell by 10.78% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 19th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7000 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the same period last week. This week, the price remained stable, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has remained stable, with mainstream prices around 7000 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, prices have remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a range of quotes of around 7000 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and demand is weak and less than expected. Upstream support is lacking.

Chemical index: On January 18th, the chemical index was 864 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.29% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.48% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market will mainly operate steadily.

The liquid epoxy resin market is showing signs of fatigue, with prices continuing to decline. On January 16th, the market quoted factory price of purified water hovered between 12700 and 13000 yuan, and the quoted price in Shandong region was as low as 12600 to 12900 yuan/ton of purified water. The raw material market continues to be sluggish, with the quoted price of bisphenol A at around 9150-9400 yuan/ton and epichlorohydrin at around 8050-8250 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not shown signs of improvement, leading to an increasingly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange. It is currently unclear when the sluggish state of the liquid epoxy resin market will usher in a turning point.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 1200.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1076.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The highest point was the average price of 1283.33 yuan/ton on March 1, and the lowest point was 1076.67 yuan/ton on June 15, a decrease of 16.10% compared to the highest point.

formaldehyde

In 2023, the formaldehyde market in Shandong fluctuated and fluctuated. From the above chart, it can be seen that formaldehyde has been on an upward trend for four months in 2023, with the highest monthly increase in August reaching 6.73%. The increase is mainly due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the rise of raw material methanol market, and the significant increase in formaldehyde market. Formaldehyde has been on a downward trend for 7 months in 2023, with the largest decline occurring in May, reaching 5.34%. The main reason for the decline is the continuous decline of raw material methanol, and downstream board factories have poor demand due to the impact of rainwater and high temperature weather, resulting in oversupply and a significant decline in the formaldehyde market.

Upstream methanol situation: In 2023, the domestic methanol market showed an “M” – shaped trend, with two obvious “ups and downs” cycles throughout the year. The “high point” of prices in February and March is mainly due to the joint support of costs and demand. Some coal mines have cleared their inventory in the early stage, and terminal procurement is relatively active. There is a significant increase in transportation vehicles, coupled with the impact of sudden related accidents. In the short term, coal prices may rise. Downstream acetic acid: demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream chloride: chloride demand or decrease. The temporary storage of methanol demand is favorable. The methanol market has seen a dual positive rise. The lowest price is in mid June, and the support for methanol production costs has weakened. Traditional demand has entered the off-season, and demand is weak. At the same time, some methanol parking facilities have recovered. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient. From the above figure, it can be seen that methanol and formaldehyde have maintained the same curve throughout the year. The market trend of methanol has a guiding effect on formaldehyde.

In recent times, the circulation of methanol has been restricted, and the market has shown a fluctuating upward trend. Cost support is good, and the Spring Festival is approaching. Downstream plate factories are flushing out inventory, and the shipment situation of manufacturers has improved. Under the dual benefits, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the beginning of 2022.

Cobalt prices have fluctuated and weakened this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 15th, the cobalt price was 218800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% from January 8th cobalt price of 220600 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 0.95% from January 1st cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton. This week, cobalt prices continued to decline, and the weak trend in the cobalt market remained unchanged.

Weak demand side in cobalt market

New energy vehicles still maintain a prosperous situation, with a year-on-year increase in production and sales. However, the first quarter is in the traditional off-season, and the release of production capacity by battery material factories has slowed down. The demand for cobalt has further decreased. Before the Spring Festival, the stocking sentiment of battery manufacturers for raw materials is sluggish, and the demand for cobalt in the market is weak.

Adequate supply of cobalt in the market

As the Spring Festival approaches, under the expectation of poor demand, the shipping pressure on holders is gradually being released, and production enthusiasm is being suppressed. However, most manufacturers still maintain normal production, and the pattern of cobalt oversupply remains unchanged. Overall, there is sufficient spot circulation.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, as the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of cobalt in the domestic market has both weakened. However, the oversupply pattern in the cobalt market has not changed, and the weak demand trend is relatively large. Overall, the cobalt market remains strong in supply and weak in demand, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and weaken in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4750.00 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price fell by 2.06%, and the overall trend is stable but weak. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, the overall DMF market is mainly operating in a narrow and weak range, with prices falling by 2.06% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is cold and the negotiation atmosphere is poor. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is a lack of positive support. Currently, manufacturers are operating under pressure, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in slow shipments.

Chemical index: On January 11th, the chemical index was 867 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.07% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain a stable, medium to strong operation, with prices remaining around 4800 yuan/ton.

Introduction: Diphenylmethane diisocyanate, abbreviated as MDI. According to the degree of polymerization of molecules, MDI can be divided into three levels: polymerization level, mixed level (dimer and trimer mixtures), and pure monomer level. MDI pure monomer (also known as pure MDI) is mainly used for synthesizing leather paste, shoe sole stock solution, and spandex; Polymerized MDI is mainly used in construction, diverse industrial molding, and refrigeration. Polyurethane rigid foam, which uses polymerized MDI as the main raw material, is currently recognized globally as a high-performance energy-saving building material. At present, commercially available products mainly consist of pure MDI and aggregated MDI, with aggregated MDI accounting for approximately 80% of the total market demand. The development of MDI industry in the world has a history of more than 50 years, but the manufacturing threshold is very high. Only a few enterprises such as Bayer (now Covestro), BASF, Huntsman, and Wanhua Chemical Group have mastered its production technology globally, and the industry concentration is very high.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the aggregated MDI market in 2023. The domestic aggregated MDI market showed significant fluctuations in 2023, with an average price of 15240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 15766 yuan/ton at the end of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.46%. From the trend chart of aggregated MDI prices, it can be seen that the highest point of aggregated MDI prices in 2023 occurred in early August, with a highest price of 17433 yuan/ton. The lowest point of aggregated MDI prices occurred in mid January, with a lowest price of 14960 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 16.53%.

The trend of the aggregated MDI market within the year has broken the traditional “gold three silver four” and “gold nine silver ten” patterns, resulting in disorderly market fluctuations and reduced operability for traders.

In the first quarter, the market rose first and then rebounded. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, market operators, driven by expectations of the recovery of domestic economy and downstream demand, combined with the maintenance of supply side facilities in Ningbo and Chongqing in February, controlled the supply volume of the market, and the market situation fluctuated upwards. However, the recovery of downstream demand did not meet expectations, and market prices rebounded after mid March. In the second quarter, the market situation was weak and consolidated from April to May. In June, multiple units in Shanghai underwent centralized maintenance, and the market was once again supported to rise. In the first half of 2023, the good performance of exports was one of the main supports for the market’s reversal of trend and upward trend.

August to October is the traditional peak season for the insulation industry of exterior wall pipelines in North China and Northeast China. In August, production enterprises control the quantity of shipments, but the market supply is insufficient. Traders’ quotations have risen, leading to strong follow-up. In September, the overall follow-up ability of the downstream market was weak, and the buying sentiment was relatively average. Traders gradually lowered their prices to adapt to the market. In October, some companies guided price increases, boosting market confidence among traders and slowing down the market’s upward trend. In the fourth quarter, multiple sets of MDI devices at home and abroad entered maintenance status, resulting in a significant reduction in overall supply. The spot filling of the domestic aggregated MDI market is still relatively limited, and the overall performance of the downstream formaldehyde free board, household appliances, and automotive industries is still good. The domestic aggregated MDI prices are rebounding.

On the supply side, the global economy still faces challenges in 2024, and the domestic economy continues to recover. After experiencing a brief pulse of consumption rebound brought about by the economic restart in 2023, the economic growth in 2024 is closer to the “new normal”. In 2024, China’s MDI production capacity is expected to continue to grow, and the proportion of China’s production capacity in the global production capacity will continue to increase. The main MDI production enterprise in China, Wanhua Chemical, has a MDI production capacity of 3.4 million tons, accounting for 30% of the global total production capacity. As of now, Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s first phase of the 400000 ton/year MDI plant will begin maintenance on November 15th, and the second phase of the 800000 ton/year plant will be shut down for maintenance on December 3rd. The two sets of equipment will be maintained for about 50 days each. Chongqing BASF will conduct maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. Chongqing BASF’s 400000 ton/year plant is expected to undergo maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. The maintenance of supply side devices and the manufacturer’s control of market volume delivery provide favorable support for the aggregation of MDI.

In terms of imports and exports, China’s aggregated MDI market exports remain optimistic in 2023. According to customs data, the cumulative export volume from January to November 2023 was 990100 tons, an increase of 112200 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 12.78%. At present, aggregate MDI is in the growth stage of net export volume. According to the statistics of production and sales countries, the top five exporters are the United States, the Netherlands, Russia, Belgium and Türkiye. The export volume is calculated by trade mode, with general trade, import processing trade, and logistics goods in customs special supervision areas ranking among the top three trade modes. According to registered place names, the top five provinces in terms of export volume are Shandong Province, Zhejiang Province, Shanghai City, Guangdong Province, and Fujian Province. In 2024, the domestic and foreign economies are gradually recovering, which is expected to further drive export growth and drive the domestic aggregated MDI market to recover and improve.

On the demand side, due to the abundant profits in the aggregated MDI industry, the impact of raw materials on the MDI price difference trend is not significant, mainly because the demand side has a decisive impact on the MDI spot price. The downstream demand for aggregated MDI is relatively concentrated, mainly for white goods; Secondly, there are fields related to construction such as pipelines and adhesives. Thanks to the recovery of the domestic home appliance market and the rebound in the growth rate of new house completion area, the demand for refrigerators, freezers, and panel industries downstream of MDI has continued to be good. Small and medium-sized refrigerator factories, external wall/pipeline insulation, automobiles, adhesives and other industries mainly rely on on-demand procurement, and the demand has maintained a stable growth trend. Some downstream sectors are significantly affected by seasonal consumption during the off peak season, and more attention still needs to be paid to traditional peak season policy guidelines such as “Golden Three Silver Four” and “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, as well as changes in demand.

Overall, there are favorable factors affecting the supply, demand, and import and export of domestic aggregated MDI in 2024. The domestic aggregated MDI market is expected to rise in the first half of 2024.

In recent days (1.1-1.10), the market for butyl acrylate has experienced a stable price after an increase. In the early stage, the increase in raw material n-butanol and the intensification of supply side contraction have become the core driving force supporting market price increases. However, after the high level of raw materials fell before the holiday, the upward momentum of the butyl acrylate market weakened. In addition, due to the off-season of traditional consumption, the overall performance of butyl acrylate consumers is lackluster. As of January 10th, the average price of butyl acrylate in East China was 9640 yuan/ton, up 4.78% from the beginning of the month,

The main factor affecting the butyl acrylate market is that the downstream acrylic lotion market was in the off-season in January, and the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods was insufficient. The wait-and-see attitude towards the raw material market was higher, and the actual transactions were limited. On the supply side of the tape master roll industry, the industry has added production while manufacturers have started production relatively steadily. Downstream consumption is slow, and on-site supply is relatively abundant. On the demand side, due to the recent stable and fluctuating market trends of industrial chain products, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market has intensified, and the atmosphere of market negotiations is light.

According to analysts from Business Society, after entering January, with a strong increase in raw material octanol and a slowdown in market demand, users in the butyl acrylate market are mainly buying small orders. Based on comprehensive market data, the butyl acrylate industry is playing a game between terminal demand and market prices are operating steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 8th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Since January, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has remained stable, and enterprises can adjust flexibly according to their own situation. The mainstream quotation reference is between 3100-3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have declined, with narrow fluctuations in the upstream methanol market, weak cost support, and decent demand performance. Downstream enterprises mainly accept orders for immediate needs, while the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is on stability.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, the supply side is temporarily stable, and downstream restocking is needed. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.