1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on January 1st was 13842 yuan/ton, and on January 7th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13837 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.04% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam has been fluctuating and consolidating at a high level. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. At present, the spot supply of caprolactam is tight, and downstream suppliers follow up on procurement as needed, with a market wait-and-see mentality as the main focus. As of January 7th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 14250 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased. On January 1st, the price of pure benzene was 7218 yuan/ton. On Friday (January 5th), the price of pure benzene was 7420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% from last week and 5.87% from the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7450 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously).

The downstream PA6 market has risen this week. As of January 7th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14725 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been fluctuating recently. The cost side support is good, and the caprolactam market is strong at a high level, but there are plans to restart the equipment in the later stage. It is expected that the short-term price of caprolactam will be mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range. It is recommended to pay attention to cost and supply-demand changes.

Price trend:

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the domestic primary sponge titanium market price remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 52000 to 55000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The production capacity of sponge titanium enterprises throughout the entire process has been released, and the inventory has increased. The domestic supply of sponge titanium is sufficient. Among them, Liaoning has the largest increase in production, with a growth rate of 45%. At present, there is overcapacity in sponge titanium production, and the raw material end continues to rise, resulting in high costs. Downstream titanium material market demand is weak. However, as the end of the year approaches, the stocking sentiment has improved and the inventory has eased, but the signing price remains negotiable.

Post forecast:

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that next week, sponge titanium enterprises will mainly focus on clearing inventory, and there is not much room for market price increase, so prices will maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda has increased this month, with an average market price of 2366 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2688 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has increased by 13.61%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.25%. On December 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 178.39, an increase of 0.01 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 102.10% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the understanding of Business Society. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating, with the mainstream market price ranging from 2600 to 2900 yuan/ton; The price of baking soda in Shandong region is consolidating, with the mainstream market price around 2500-2800 yuan/ton. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash increased in December. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2620 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2790 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.49%, an increase of 5.36% compared to the same period last year. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has increased this month.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has recently stabilized, while the upstream raw material soda ash has recently fluctuated. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food, and other sectors of baking soda have mainly purchased on demand in the near future. It is expected that the price of baking soda will continue to consolidate in the future, with a specific focus on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased significantly in December. The price of isooctanol increased from 11500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.61%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 32.14% year-on-year.

On December 28th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.22, a decrease of 0.37 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 170.90% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong has significantly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and falls

In December, the ex factory price of propylene fluctuated and fell, dropping from 7105.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6868.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27% at the end of the month. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support, which has a bearish impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side, the DOP market has seen a significant increase

The market price of DOP increased significantly in December. The price of DOP increased from 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12091.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.60%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 23.38% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early January, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices have shown an upward trend at the end of the month, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently seen a significant increase, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Ethylene glycol prices rose in December

The price of ethylene glycol rose in December. According to data from Business Society, as of December 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.21% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4295-4400 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4300 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China’s spot market is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4295 yuan/ton to the outside world.

The factory price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, with a factory price of 3680 yuan/ton in the northwest region.

Review of ethylene glycol market

The expectation of overseas import volume contraction runs through December. At the beginning of the month, the news of equipment maintenance in Saudi Arabia pushed the price of ethylene glycol to stop falling and stabilize, reversing the previous decline. Affected by the Red Sea incident in the later stage, coupled with the month on month inventory of ethylene glycol at the port, the price of ethylene glycol increased significantly.

At the end of the month, crude oil prices fell, and the market’s bullish sentiment began to decline. In addition, there were not many downstream inquiries, and the market gradually returned to fundamental considerations.

Expected future market for ethylene glycol

The main variables currently affecting the price of ethylene glycol are whether the implementation of import volume reduction has been realized, and whether the underlying cost support brought about by crude oil and coal prices will shift.

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still in a weak state, and the high inventory reality suppresses the upward space of prices. Currently, prices have shown significant upward momentum, and it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Introduction: In the first half of 2023, the domestic market for butyl acrylate showed an N-shaped trend, and in the second half, it showed an N-shaped trend. Affected by the decline in prices of dual raw materials, the release of new production capacity for butyl ester, and the recovery of lower than expected downstream demand in the fundamental common market. The demand for butyl acrylate slowly recovered in the second half of the year, and the upstream raw material butanol and octanol prices rose beyond expectations. The price of butyl acrylate rebounded slightly from September to October. The price fluctuation of butyl acrylate is significantly weak compared to last year.

Comparison of quarterly fluctuations in the domestic butyl acrylate market

In terms of price fluctuations, the price of butyl acrylate in the domestic market was around 10800 yuan/ton in the first quarter, a decrease of 5700 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022; The price in the second quarter was around 9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7100 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The price in the third quarter was around 9900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2200 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The price in the fourth quarter was around 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The peak price in 2023 was around 11500 yuan/ton, which occurred in mid to late September and early October, respectively. The lowest price was around 8800 yuan/ton, which appeared in early April. The price peak price difference range in 2023 is 2700 yuan/ton, which is significantly narrower than the high and low price difference in 2022.

Both supply and demand data have fallen, and the performance of the butyl acrylate market is mediocre

In the first half of the year, there were many butyl acrylate factories that carried out load reduction operations, resulting in a production volume of only 1.024 million tons, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the same period in the first half of the year. In terms of imports, due to the increase in imports from Russia since the second half of last year, according to customs data, the cumulative import volume of butyl acrylate from November 2023 to November 2023 in China was 10798.937 tons, a decrease of 2417.407 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 18.29%. The cumulative export volume from January to November was 216835.105 tons, a decrease of 22358.683 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 9.35%. In November, due to the maintenance and load reduction of multiple factories for butyl acrylate, the spot supply was tight. The situation of oversupply in 2024 may still exist, but with the recovery and continuous development of the domestic economy, the supply-demand relationship may gradually move towards balance.

The demand continues to be weak, and the overall driving force of downstream industries is limited.

In 2023, the downstream tape master roll industry of butyl acrylate will also maintain a light demand situation. The purchase volume of adhesive tape master rolls is low, and there is insufficient support for the market price of adhesive tape master rolls. Adhesive tape master roll manufacturers are offering discounts to promote transactions. The cost has weakened the support for the tape master roll, resulting in a significant shortage of new transactions on the market and high pressure on actual transactions.

In terms of acrylic lotion, affected by the cost and the characteristics of downstream demand in slack and peak seasons, the price of acrylic lotion also has a certain rise and fall law with seasonal changes. The peak season of acrylic acid lotion industry is concentrated in March, April, September and October, among which March and October have a large increase. 1. Downstream demand was sluggish in June, November, and December, and prices showed a downward trend. As a downstream product, acrylic lotion is greatly affected by the terminal real estate industry. The repair speed may be slightly slow, and the market price increase may be limited.

As the end of the year approaches, the domestic market for butyl acrylate has slightly rebounded, but it is still in a loss making state. The main reason for the increase is that the price of upstream raw material butanol has exceeded expectations. Although there is a high cost pressure, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the confidence of the industry in the future market is insufficient. The supply-demand contradiction is still concentrated in the downstream terminal consumption speed.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated in December. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the highest point on the 16th was 1193.33 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong had dropped to 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the current price has dropped by 6.38% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In December, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fluctuated and stabilized. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has had relatively small fluctuations in the past three months, but this month’s market has risen and then fallen, remaining basically unchanged. As of December 27th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1220 yuan/ton. In December, the price of raw material methanol also returned to the beginning of the month at the end of the month, with average cost support. Downstream sheet factories were affected by environmental protection, and demand continued to be poor. Production enterprises faced significant shipping pressure, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: In December, the domestic methanol market first rose and then fell. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the cold wave, most parts of the country experienced a cliff like cooling, leading to a significant increase in daily consumption of power plants and an increase in terminal stage purchases. However, downstream acceptance of high priced market coal is limited, and transportation continues to be mainly based on long-term contract coal; The cold wave weather has to some extent boosted the consumption of electric coal, and there are still expectations of an increase in daily consumption of power plants on the basis of high levels. Some terminal demand purchases with insufficient coal reserves continue to be released. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support, and downstream sheet metal factories are taking early holidays, resulting in a decline in demand. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 12825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12925 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.78%, and the weekend price increased by 1.37% year-on-year.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have seen a slight increase in quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market saw a slight decline this week, with prices dropping from 9542.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9521.43 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.54% at the end of the week. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7440 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7520 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.08%. The weekend price has increased by 6.82% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices fluctuate, with average cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price of spandex dropped from 32575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 32125 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%, and the weekend price fell 9.51% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late December, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (December 25th): 13025.00/ton

On December 25th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, with a price increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to December 22nd, an increase of 1.96%, and a year-on-year increase of 34.74%. Upstream propylene prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream plasticizer market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 13100 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the DBP price was 9662.50 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased by 0.26% compared to the DBP price of 9637.50 yuan/ton on December 15; Compared to the DBP price of 9737.50 yuan/ton on December 20th, the price has decreased by 0.77%. The raw material n-butanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The support of DBP cost increase is difficult to sustain, and the operating rate of DBP enterprises has decreased. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased. This week, DBP prices rose first and then fell.

Price reduction of plasticizer products

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the prices of plasticizer DOP and DOTP both rose first and then fell this week. The prices of plasticizer products generally fell, which was negative for DBP prices. The prices of new DBP orders also fell.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22nd, the price of isooctanol was 12775 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of isooctanol on December 15th, which was 12650 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.99%. This week, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. The main manufacturers of isooctanol are offering discounts for sales, and isooctanol products have stopped rising and falling.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 22, the price of n-butanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to December 15, when the price of n-butanol was 8550 yuan/ton. The equipment production of n-butanol enterprises has stopped short, the supply of n-butanol has decreased, and the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and increased. However, downstream production has declined, and the shipment of n-butanol is average. Major n-butanol manufacturers have offered to sell, which has supported a decrease in n-butanol prices. The downward pressure on n-butanol in the future is increasing.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that plasticizer product prices have generally decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizer DBP prices has increased. In terms of raw materials, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. However, the prices of major n-butanol and isooctanol manufacturers have fallen, and the cost support for DBP raw materials has not been sustained. In the future, it is expected that the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol will fall, the cost support for plasticizers will weaken, and DBP cost demand will play a game. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.