According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 21, 2023, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4083 yuan/ton. Compared with December 17 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4116 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (12.17-12.21), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. At the beginning of the week, some domestic factories had a shortage of dimethyl carbonate in stock, with a narrow increase in the shipping price of dimethyl carbonate by 50 yuan/ton. However, due to the weak downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate, some companies saw a slight price increase, which generally boosted the overall market situation. Subsequently, dimethyl carbonate was mainly consolidated and operated. During the weekend, the overall dimethyl carbonate market experienced a slight decline, with a drag on the demand side, The overall market price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong and Anhui regions has slightly decreased, with a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of December 21st, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3800-4200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is light, and the overall support from the downstream demand side is limited. A dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly be weak with narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand consumption.

Recently, the market for epichlorohydrin has been mainly stable, and the market atmosphere is light. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 17th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price on Monday (December 11th).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has slightly increased recently (12.11-12.15), with an average price of 6968 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7010 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.61%. The price of raw material glycerol is mainly stable, and the impact of cost on the epichlorohydrin market is not significant.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some factories in Jiangsu, Shandong, and other regions have restarted their facilities, leading to an increase in spot supply in the market. Factory delivery contracts are the main focus, and inventory on the supply side is not under pressure. However, the demand side has a weak intention to replenish demand, mainly due to weak downstream epoxy resin operations. The mentality towards raw material procurement is cautious, and some companies in the market are offering low prices under shipment pressure, resulting in a light market atmosphere.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, and supply side support still exists. However, the demand side is weak, and it is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Looking back at the bisphenol A market in 2023, the domestic bisphenol A market struggled to escape the curse of hovering at a low level in the first half of the year. In June, it fell to the lowest point in five years. On June 15th, the domestic market price was at 8712 yuan/ton. Finally, the third quarter saw a market boom and quickly surged to the highest point of the year. On September 16th, the domestic market reported 12062 yuan/ton, but ultimately demand was unable to support the high price market. Bisphenol A once again experienced a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, on October 1st, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was reported at 11450 yuan/ton, while on October 19th, it was reported at 9612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.05%. The main reason for the continuous decline of bisphenol A in this round is that there are many device restarts; The second is the production of new devices, with sufficient supply; Thirdly, demand remains sluggish.

The market experienced the largest decline in October, with factories suffering severe losses. The domestic market price has dropped from 10450 yuan/ton to 10062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.12%. Firstly, in October, the decline in phenol/acetone, a dual raw material, was significant, and bisphenol A lost its cost support for a while, showing a broad downward trend; Secondly, with relatively stable supply, demand is sluggish, and terminal factories mainly consume inventory and contracts. Faced with a high willingness of actual traders to offer discounts and shipments in the market, the market is deteriorating. In October, bisphenol A experienced a rapid decline, and factories suffered severe losses. As of the end of the month, bisphenol A factories suffered losses of nearly a thousand yuan/ton.

In November, the supply side tightened and the market fluctuated at a low level. Entering November, the domestic production capacity operating rate dropped to 60% for a while, and in the latter half of the year, the double raw materials saw a slight increase. With the support of cost, the willingness of manufacturers to ship weakened under pressure and loss, but terminal demand was sluggish, and the bottom fluctuated slightly after a sluggish market.

The expected increase in supply in December has once again put pressure on the market to bottom out. There were many maintenance and unplanned parking devices in November, but they gradually resumed in December. The supply side is loose. Recently, delivery contracts for bisphenol A factories have been the main focus, and spot trading in the market has been flat. As of now, the negotiated price for bisphenol A in the market has reached 9600-9700 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offer is 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade mid to high end materials in East China at 15650 yuan/ton. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to restart the first phase of its PC plant, but there is no significant fluctuation in other areas. The operating rate is less than 50%.

More than a month before the Spring Festival, there were still significant changes in the supply and demand as well as cost aspects of the bisphenol A market. However, in the face of this year’s sluggish market situation, there was a strong intention for upstream and downstream light positions at the end of the year. Currently, the market is still more bearish than bullish, making it difficult to be optimistic.

Positive: From the perspective of supply, the 150000 ton/year plant of South Asia Plastics undergoes shutdown and maintenance. From the perspective of cost, based on the current trend of phenol and acetone, there is a high probability of fluctuation around the current market situation, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is difficult to have significant positive effects. Among them, the recent market changes of phenol and acetone are greatly affected by port inventory, factory maintenance, and industry trends. Currently, the negotiated price of phenol in the East China region is between 7750-7850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is 6800 yuan/ton. The average cost of bisphenol A fluctuates between 10000-10500 yuan/ton. From the perspective of bisphenol A factories, the theoretical value is still in a loss state.

Negative: In terms of supply, there were many new units added in December, and the market expected supply to increase. Longjiang Chemical is currently undergoing commissioning with an annual output of 200000 tons, while South Asia Plastics Phase II is gradually stabilizing with an annual output of 170000 tons. Hengli Petrochemical’s 240000 tons per year and new units in Qingdao Bay need attention for production. From a demand perspective, the two downstream products, epoxy resin and PC, have started production between 50-60%, and currently the epoxy resin industry is still at a loss line, with industry production also being suppressed. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in production rates until January.

As the end of the year approaches, the chemical industry index is still fluctuating at a low level, and there is a lack of positive market news. Currently, bisphenol A is facing an increase in supply and the gradual release of production capacity. Traders have a weak mentality, and it is expected that bisphenol A will continue to hit the bottom in the short term. If the cost side is supported, bisphenol A may remain low and hover. Considering the lack of positive news in the two downstream markets, it is highly likely that bisphenol A will fluctuate at a low level until the end of the year.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2933.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.57%, and the weekend price decreased by 20.72% year-on-year. On December 17th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 76.86, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.78% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 38.51% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly increased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material is around 1160 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price has slightly declined this week, dropping from 5710.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5698.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.21%. Weekend prices fell 6.97% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late December, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at low levels, and cost support is average. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late December, with consolidation being the main trend.

Plasticizer DOTP fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the price of DOTP was 11840 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.99% compared to the price of DOTP on December 5th, which was 12080 yuan/ton. The main reason for the cost support for the record high DOTP price in December is due to the lack of cost support as the high price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, causing DOTP prices to fluctuate and fall this week.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isooctanol surged in early December, but this week, the rise of isooctanol supported a decline, and the price of isooctanol fell from its high point. As of December 15th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared to the quoted price of 12825 yuan/ton on December 8th. In early December, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers increased at a high level, leading to active procurement by major plasticizer factories. As a result, demand for rigid isooctanol increased, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol products; As the price of isooctanol rises, plasticizer manufacturers experience a decrease in profits and losses, the operating load of plasticizers decreases, the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient, the demand for isooctanol decreases, and the high price of isooctanol falls back.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the high starting point of plasticizer DOTP has fallen, the supply of DOTP has decreased, the enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has decreased. In the future, the high price of isooctanol will fall, the cost of raw materials will decrease, and the cost demand for plasticizer DOTP in the market will compete. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently increased. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5037.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%, a month on month decrease of 2.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, while downstream acetic acid: The demand for acetic acid is increasing; Downstream dimethyl ether: demand for dimethyl ether may increase; Downstream chlorides: Increased demand for chlorides; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream MTBE: As some manufacturers reduce their operating load, the demand for MTBE will decrease. The demand for methanol is mixed.

After the recent rise in the methanol market, it has temporarily stabilized with good cost support. Downstream procurement remains in high demand, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently. On December 12th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from 7080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Asia US arbitrage space narrows, mixed xylene external market prices lower

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has stabilized at a low level. As of December 12th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia is between $842-843 per ton.

Mixed xylene port inventory continues to increase

The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of early December, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 31000 tons.

The overall fluctuation of crude oil decreases, and the cost support for mixed xylene weakens

Recently (12.1-12.12), international crude oil prices have been weakly volatile, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of December 12th, the WTI01 contract closed at $68.75 per barrel and settled at $68.61 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $73.27 per barrel and settled at $76.03 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for mixed xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

The market for phthalic anhydride continues to decline, with weak support for mixed xylene demand

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running steadily, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is fluctuating at a low level, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. The phthalic anhydride market has slightly declined.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and mixed xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of early December, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 690%.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will fluctuate and fall, and the cost center of mixed xylene will shift downwards. Domestic port inventories will continue to increase, and it is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate weakly in the later period.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from 14675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly decreased, and the cost center of nitrile rubber has declined; The downstream gradually enters the low season in winter, with low inquiries and low market transactions. The overall price of nitrile rubber in the market is weakly adjusted. As of December 12th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 13500-13600 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly decreased, resulting in a downward shift in the cost of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 12th, the price of butadiene was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.27% from 9125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 12th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 10000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been generally stable.

The production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China continues to decline slightly to a low level of around 5.60%. Inquiries about nitrile rubber are cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market is slightly stagnant, leading to a weakening of the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, nitrile rubber plants are operating normally with relatively sufficient supply and weak downstream inquiries. In addition, the cost side is declining, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8300.00 yuan/ton. On the 6th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8175.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8233.33 yuan/ton, with a 1.33% increase from the lowest point to the highest point. The price has increased by 4.63% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the price of styrene in the market has dropped first and then increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fallen in the past month, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded this week. International oil prices first fell and then rose. In the early stage, the styrene market was affected by costs and fell all the way down. Later, it hit a low point and rebounded. Overall, the styrene market was greatly affected by costs.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price dropping at 6800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have also dropped by 400 yuan/ton). But by the weekend, the intention to purchase at low prices in East China was good, and the Shandong refinery’s offer stopped falling. Multiple downstream and traders entered the market to buy, with actual orders increasing in volume and overall transactions improving compared to before.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with an average PS quotation of 9666 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and an average PS price of 9600 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.69% and a decrease of 3.36% compared to the same period last year. The cost of PS is weak, and the market supply is sufficient. It is expected that the domestic price of PS (polystyrene) will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

This week, the EPS market has fallen, with weakened upstream support and thin terminal profits. Buying follow-up is limited, and overall transactions are average. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, with buying mainly in demand. It is expected that the EPS market will decline in the future.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has slightly declined, and the domestic ABS industry has taken on the high load from the previous period, with an average weekly operating rate of about 75%. Compared with the previous period, it has remained relatively stable. The production of the enterprise is stable, and inventory is steadily increasing. In addition, in November, the new equipment of Ineos Benling was put into operation, and current shipments continue to expand, resulting in a full supply of goods on site. The company’s loss situation continues, with high supply pressure. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

Recently, international crude oil prices have started to rebound, cost support has improved, and styrene port inventories have decreased. Under the dual benefits, it is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

This week, the acrylic acid market remained stable with some gains. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 8th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6200.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to Monday’s price.

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on December 7th, the reference price of propylene was 7018.25, a decrease of 1.23% compared to December 1st (7105.75), indicating weak demand. Recently, the main trend in the raw material propylene market has been a slight decline, and there is still pressure on the cost side of the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, the operating rate of the acrylic acid industry has slightly increased, and the supply side still has support for the market. The rise in the downstream butyl acrylate market has boosted the acrylic acid market to a certain extent. Some enterprises have raised prices, and the downstream butyl acrylate production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased. The SAP resin and water treatment production capacity utilization rate is mainly stable, and the enthusiasm for acrylic acid inquiries and procurement is average, with a focus on following up on urgent needs.

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, while the supply side support still exists. However, during the off-season of demand, inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand, and market transactions are average. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will undergo consolidation and operation in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.