Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 7th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 158600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.11% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 72.50% compared to the same period last year.

Since December, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has continued to decline. In recent times, the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market has continued to decline, with weak prices of upstream spodumene concentrate and a continued decline in costs. The mentality of the industry is insufficient, and downstream inquiries are generally enthusiastic, with a focus on low demand follow-up. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has weakened.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate have continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on December 7th was 110000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.86% compared to the average price of 123400 yuan/ton on December 1st, which weakened support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, the current cost side continues to be weak, with limited follow-up on the demand side. Market transactions are mainly based on long-term cooperative orders, and there is still insufficient positive support. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

In early December, the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, and spot prices of various brands were often lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 6th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11000.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.23% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In December, the domestic ABS industry took on a high load from the previous period, with a weekly average operating rate of about 75%, which was basically sideways compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and inventory is steadily increasing. In addition, in November, the new equipment of Ineos Benling was put into operation, and current shipments continue to expand, resulting in a full supply of goods on site. The company’s loss situation continues, with high supply pressure. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

In terms of raw materials: In early December, the upstream three materials of ABS showed a weak trend, with the acrylonitrile market stabilizing after a decline. The raw material prices have fallen in mid month, and the current repair is insufficient. The cost support for acrylonitrile is average; The main downstream production is still stable, but there is an expectation of an increase in the load of the acrylonitrile unit. The market’s bearish mentality has intensified. At present, there is insufficient trading and prices are weak and stagnant.

In early December, the domestic butadiene market accelerated its decline. The main production enterprise Sinopec has significantly lowered its ex factory quotation by 500 yuan/ton, creating a bearish drag on the market atmosphere. At the same time, some devices have restarted, and there is sufficient supply of goods on the supply side. Downstream industries have frequently stopped and reduced their load, and the dragging force on the demand side has gradually strengthened. The butadiene market has encountered obstacles in transactions, and supplier prices are under pressure, leading to a decline in the market’s focus.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the decline in styrene market prices in early December has widened. International oil prices continue to decline, with pure benzene, the raw material for styrene, following suit. In addition, spot resource transactions are weak, and the cost support for styrene is weak. The main downstream market is not good, with merchants mainly offering discounts for shipments. The spot trading of styrene is weak, and the market is fluctuating and falling.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have shown poor stocking enthusiasm, mainly focusing on digesting existing inventory. Enterprise operations tend to maintain production, making it difficult to increase demand. The wait-and-see sentiment of midstream traders has intensified, and their willingness to purchase goods is low, resulting in weak demand side.

Future Market Forecast

In early December, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was poor, and the support for the cost side of ABS was weak. The operation of the petrochemical plant is generally maintained in the early stage, and the supply pressure is maintained at a high level. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. The concentration of bearish sentiment on the market has led to a complete decline in ABS prices. It is expected that the bearish fundamentals will be difficult to digest in the short term, and there may be downward momentum in the ABS market. It is recommended to closely monitor the demand side situation.

The peak season of Jinjiu has ended, and the carbon black market has entered a rapid decline channel, with a market decline of over a thousand yuan. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is between 9800-10050 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 9.61% compared to October.

In terms of raw materials, in November, the price of high-temperature coal tar from carbon black raw materials continued to decline weakly. As of the 29th, the coal tar market quotation was 4417 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 500 yuan from early November, with a decrease of 9.85%. In the first half of this month, the price of coal tar market began to decline, with differentiated market performance in various regions. Downstream deep processing products suffered severe losses, and the operating rate of enterprises significantly declined. In mid month, downstream product prices of coal tar all showed varying degrees of decline. Some regions have already experienced a situation of inverted prices of coal tar and raw material coal tar, and their willingness to purchase raw material coal tar is relatively negative. There is a strong bearish atmosphere on the market, The continuous decline in coal tar prices has dragged down the price of carbon black in the market. Entering the end of the month, the pessimistic sentiment in the downstream market has slightly improved, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm has increased. At the end of the month, there was significant production cost pressure on coking enterprises, with an overall decline in operating rates. The supply and demand of coal tar on site were slightly tight, and downstream market demand rebounded, driving a narrow increase in coal tar market prices and strengthening support for carbon black cost.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. In September, due to the arrival of the “Golden September and Silver October” in the downstream tire and rubber industry, the demand for raw material carbon black increased significantly, and the terminal stocking sentiment was strong. Carbon black enterprises maintained a high operating level of 65% -72% to deliver downstream purchase orders. Since October, the carbon black market price has remained high. With good profitability in the carbon black industry, carbon black enterprises have less equipment maintenance, The enthusiasm for construction remains high, and there is sufficient supply of carbon black in the market, with some carbon black enterprises in the main production areas having significantly higher inventory. The cumulative production of carbon black from January to October 2023 was 4.4328 million tons, an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 338100 tons in production.

In terms of terminals: In November, the impact of the off-season gradually became apparent, and the demand for all steel tires and semi steel tires gradually slowed down. The demand for carbon black terminals weakened, and downstream tire industry enterprises saw a decline in export orders. The operating rate declined compared to the previous period, and most tire enterprises had a certain amount of carbon black raw material inventory, which led to poor enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black.

The market trend of raw material coal tar continues to decline, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is transmitted downwards to the terminal market. Due to the impact of buying up rather than buying down, new transactions in the carbon black market are limited. The demand performance of other rubber product industries and plastic masterbatch industries is also average.

At the end of the month, the downstream tire and rubber industry’s domestic market demand is weak and flat, with a small amount of replenishment of raw material carbon black as the main focus. Moreover, due to the impact of market buying up and not buying down, the reception of carbon black is relatively passive. There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market, with inquiries mainly focused on price suppression, and the demand side still maintains a strong demand.

Import and export data: According to customs data, China imported 28200 tons of carbon black in October 2023, an increase of 202.61% year-on-year and 14.07% month on month; From January to October 2023, China imported a total of 227300 tons of carbon black, an increase of 198.67% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 151200 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black import quantity in October 2023 are Russia, Japan, and South Korea; They account for 77.6%, 4.5%, and 4.1% of the total import volume, respectively.

According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in October 2023 were approximately 58800 tons, an increase of 4.51% year-on-year and a decrease of 6.83% month on month. From January to October 2023, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 589000 tons, a decrease of 17.22% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 122500 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in October 2023 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 30.2%, 23.2%, and 18.7% of the total export volume, respectively.

In the future, under the tug of war between supply and demand, the trend of raw materials is relatively stagnant, which may provide some support for carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to maintain a stable and consolidated carbon black market in the short term due to the multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

Price trend

In November, the domestic EVA market remained stable and slightly increased, with a narrow increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 1st, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.80% compared to early November.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The supply of ethylene at the raw material end remained at a low level in the first half of November. The delayed arrival of ethylene cargo at some ports and the decrease in capacity of the Panama Canal jointly suppressed the supply of goods from the mainland, and the contraction of domestic spot circulation only slightly eased at the end of the month. However, downstream industries have average starting positions and limited demand. It is expected that ethylene will maintain a strong consolidation operation in the future;

The vinyl acetate industry is currently in the off-season, with a pattern of high supply and low demand at the beginning of the month continuing, and prices are under pressure and weakening. In the middle of the month, some downstream stocking further weakened, and the trading situation was relatively weak. Although the load of overseas enterprises decreased at the end of the month and the supply of goods tightened, boosting prices, the results show that the improvement of supply and demand contradictions is limited. In November, the market for EVA raw materials fluctuated, providing moderate support for the EVA market.

In terms of supply:

Domestic EVA enterprises rebounded after experiencing a drop in load in November. The industry’s operating rate fell from around 80% at the beginning of the month to 72% in the middle of the month and began to rebound. The monthly average load was 78.40%, and the monthly production was about 173000 tons. The market supply remained abundant. The manufacturer’s ex factory pricing remains strong in the market, with reduced plans for device maintenance in the future and an expected increase in shipment and inventory. However, the overall inventory position of EVA is still acceptable, and the pricing operation of enterprises tends to be supportive of the market. Overall, the support from EVA suppliers for spot goods in November was average.

In terms of demand:

The demand side performance of EVA in November was volatile. The long-term weak demand for foam shoe materials has not changed. Photovoltaic companies saw a low rise at the beginning of the month. But with the temporary suspension of photovoltaic material stocking in the middle of the month, market buying sentiment has declined synchronously. At the end of the month, some low-end offers drove demand for adhesive films to buy on dips. The market buying sentiment has slightly rebounded, and the current buyer camp is mainly wait-and-see, with resistance towards the return of high priced goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market in November showed a generally upward trend in the first half of the month and a sideways trend in the second half. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has returned to a high level, and downstream, except for photovoltaic materials, tend to be generally weak. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials in the future may drive some consumption, but with no expected contraction in the supply side, the market is unable to change the long short pull situation. It is expected that the EVA market will maintain a fundamental game trend in the short term and continue to consolidate and operate. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in on-site demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market significantly declined in November. On November 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.41% from the 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since November, the arbitrage space in Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external price of mixed xylene has decreased

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has stabilized at a low level. As of November 29th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia is between $846-847 per ton.

The external price of mixed xylene has decreased, and port inventory has slightly increased

The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 23, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 27500 tons, a slight increase from 26000 tons in mid November.

Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and the cost support for mixed xylene has weakened

In November, international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and fall, weakening support for the cost of mixed toluene. As of November 30th, the WTI01 contract closed at $75.60 per barrel, with a settlement of $75.96 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $80.37 per barrel and settled at $80.86 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for toluene in the production of xylene

In November, the price trend of para xylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. In November, the supply of xylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was restarted, but some units were still undergoing maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot prices. The international crude oil price trend in November declined, and PX external prices fell due to this impact. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 961-963 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 986-988 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has slightly increased. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region has risen to nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has increased, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Weak market for phthalic anhydride and weak demand support for mixed xylene

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is decreasing, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. In November, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, Manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their ex factory prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and mixed xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

Market forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil range will fluctuate, and the cost of mixed xylene will still be supported. Domestic supply will continue to accumulate, and it is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate weakly in the later period.

Price trend

In November, the domestic PA66 market saw a narrow decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 21333.33 yuan/ton on November 30th, with a price increase or decrease of -0.78% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of the month, PA66 took over the previous high market trend, and the market showed a narrow retracement of the previous super rise. Overall, the spot prices of various brands remained stable throughout the month. There has been little change in the operating rate of the production line within the month, and the overall industry load has remained stable at around 65%, which is basically horizontal compared to the previous period. The supply of goods on site is moderate, the inventory position is low, and the pricing operation of enterprises is stable with small fluctuations. The support from suppliers is still sufficient. Terminal enterprises still rely on maintaining production as their main source of goods, with on-site stocking centered around essential needs, and weak support from the demand side for spot goods. On the upstream side, the domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine is tight, and the price remains high due to the previous price hikes by international large factories. Adipic acid market bearish guidance, price bearish decline. The support from the cost side for the PA66 market is still concentrated on hexamethylene diamine. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell narrowly in November. The price of raw materials varies from high to low, which generally supports the cost of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is almost horizontal, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices fluctuated and fell in November. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 162.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 152.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.15%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 22.98% year-on-year.

On November 28th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 40.13, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 123.19% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has slightly declined this month, and manufacturers have limited inventory.

Cost side: Liquid chlorine prices rise first and then fall

From a cost perspective, the upstream liquid chlorine market for hydrochloric acid slightly increased in November, with an overall increase of 50 yuan/ton. Cost support has increased.

Demand side: Downstream demand is good

In November, the market for polyaluminum chloride slightly increased, with market prices rising from 1751.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1763.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.74% at the end of the month. The market situation of ammonium chloride slightly increased in November, with market prices rising from 687.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 717.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.89% at the end of the month. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early December, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream liquid chlorine prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have seen a slight increase, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and increases.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then fell in October. At the beginning of November, the market was average at 7050 yuan/ton. On November 28th, the average price was 7083 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.46%, a decrease of 1.75% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 28th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 28th

Shandong region/ 7000-7050 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6700-6750 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7000-7050 yuan/ton

After experiencing a wave of gains in November, the domestic propylene market entered a downward pattern. At the beginning of the month, the downstream polypropylene market improved, and the price difference between propylene and it widened, driving the downstream to actively enter the market. At the same time, some upstream devices were shut down, resulting in a decrease in supply, and the propylene market was actively pushing up. Subsequently, the price of propylene rose to a high level, and downstream profit margins decreased, leading to a boycott mentality and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In order to stimulate sales in the upstream, price reduction and inventory reduction were the main measures.

Cost side: In November, upstream propylene products mainly increased, with significant cost support. Downstream products fluctuate, and the main downstream polypropylene remains weak, with average purchasing power, which hinders the propylene market.

The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that overall, the current supply and demand of the propylene market are stable, and it is expected that the market will operate steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market was downward in late November. On November 20th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 17266.67 yuan/ton yuan/ton, and on November 27th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16650 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.57%.

2、 Market analysis

In late November, the focus of the domestic titanium dioxide market was downward. The domestic terminal market continues to be weak, with limited new orders in the market. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market, and demand has weakened. The prices of leading manufacturers have been lowered by a thousand yuan, and some manufacturers have followed suit to lower their prices. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has fluctuated slightly. The low-end prices in the market have slightly increased, and the downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a mediocre market situation. The market demand is not good, so we are more cautious and cautious in procurement. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38-42 titanium concentrate is around 1460-1480 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the tax-free quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has increased. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid on November 20th was 298 yuan/ton, and on November 27th it was 302 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.34%. The upstream sulfur market has recently seen a slight increase, with increased cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating at a high level, while the monoammonium phosphate market has recently seen a slight increase. Downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is strong, with a slight increase in sulfuric acid prices, and upstream raw material support is still acceptable. However, the downstream market is weak, with most enterprises mainly observing and watching. The market trading situation is light, and the market focus is downward. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on November 20th was 12975 yuan/ton, and on November 24th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13237 yuan/ton. This week, the price of caprolactam increased by 2.02%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has increased this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, weakening cost support. Some companies may undergo maintenance or load reduction of caprolactam units, resulting in tight spot supply in the market and stable downstream demand. Supported by supply and demand, the market trend of caprolactam is improving. As of November 24th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 13500 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has slightly decreased. On November 20th, the price of pure benzene was 7717 yuan/ton. On Friday (November 24th), the price of pure benzene was 7642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions were synchronized).

Downstream PA6 prices have slightly increased this week. The domestic PA6 market has rebounded narrowly, with some spot prices rising. As of November 24th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14487.5 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that in recent days, the caprolactam market has been dominated by market trends. The market for raw material pure benzene is weakening, with insufficient cost support. In the later stage, as the enterprise facilities gradually recover, the supply shortage phenomenon has been alleviated. Expected short-term consolidation of caprolactam prices.