According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market significantly declined in November. On November 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.41% from the 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Since November, the arbitrage space in Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external price of mixed xylene has decreased
Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has stabilized at a low level. As of November 29th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia is between $846-847 per ton.
The external price of mixed xylene has decreased, and port inventory has slightly increased
The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 23, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 27500 tons, a slight increase from 26000 tons in mid November.
Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and the cost support for mixed xylene has weakened
In November, international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and fall, weakening support for the cost of mixed toluene. As of November 30th, the WTI01 contract closed at $75.60 per barrel, with a settlement of $75.96 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $80.37 per barrel and settled at $80.86 per barrel.
Slight increase in demand support for toluene in the production of xylene
In November, the price trend of para xylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. In November, the supply of xylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was restarted, but some units were still undergoing maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot prices. The international crude oil price trend in November declined, and PX external prices fell due to this impact. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 961-963 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 986-988 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has slightly increased. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region has risen to nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has increased, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.
Weak market for phthalic anhydride and weak demand support for mixed xylene
The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is decreasing, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. In November, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, Manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their ex factory prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.
Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and mixed xylene demand support is weakening
Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.
Market forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil range will fluctuate, and the cost of mixed xylene will still be supported. Domestic supply will continue to accumulate, and it is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate weakly in the later period.
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