According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market is going down unilaterally. From November to the 23rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong region has dropped from 3806 yuan/ton to 3452 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.28%, a month on month decrease of 9.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.84%. The main reason for the decline in asphalt prices is the significant decline in international crude oil. Although there was occasional rebound during this period, the support was not strong, and the prices of major production enterprises were stacked twice in a row. At the same time, there was obvious competition for brand resources, and some implemented volume price preferential policies. However, downstream demand was relatively weak, and the asphalt market situation continued to decline.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, during the same period (November 1st to 23rd), the international crude oil futures market fluctuated and fell, leading to a significant increase in US crude oil inventories. More importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about future demand. As of the close on November 13th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures’ main contract was 81.96 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.49 US dollars or 0.6%.

On the demand side, there is still a demand in the northern region to catch up on work and end up, which provides some support for low-priced shipments, but resource competition is obvious; The demand in the southern region is stable, with many inquiries and low-priced resources being the main focus. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 23, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2401 opened at 3518 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3554 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3460 yuan/ton. It closed at 3554 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume was 318736 lots, the position was 263932 lots, and the daily increase was 12765 lots.

Future market forecast shows that asphalt manufacturers have accumulated inventory and slightly increased shipping pressure; The demand is weakening day by day, the supply-demand contradiction is gradually rising, and the market price is bearish. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market is operating weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 21, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7100 yuan/ton, which is 7080 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on November 14. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid increased by 0.28%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 21, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6900 yuan/ton, which is 6883 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on November 14. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price increased by 0.24%.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market price fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has weakened, and the cost support for thermal phosphoric acid is insufficient. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, and the cost of wet process phosphoric acid still has support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and downstream procurement is on demand. There are relatively few market inquiries, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. As of November 21st, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7300 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-7650 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market overall remained stable and slightly upward again this week. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou region have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock in a narrow range, with an increase of about 20-30 yuan/ton. As a result, the supply of low-priced goods on site has decreased, and the price difference between high and low prices has narrowed. As of November 21st, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000 to 1100 yuan/ton, with higher prices around 1150 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The domestic yellow phosphorus market price has been lowered this week. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is light, and many yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. Enterprise quotations are mainly firm. The quotation in the yellow phosphorus market has loosened slightly, and downstream procurement is still cautious, with more wait-and-see trends and a focus on just demand. As of now, the quoted price in the yellow phosphorus market is around 25680-27300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that there has been a slight adjustment in the price of phosphoric acid recently. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus has weakened, and the cost support for thermal phosphoric acid has weakened. Downstream demand performance is poor, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will operate weakly, with narrow adjustments being the main focus.

Product Name: Neopentyl Glycol

Latest price (November 21st): 9900.00 yuan/ton

On November 21st, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol slightly decreased, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to November 20th, a decrease of 1.98%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.41%. The raw material isobutyraldehyde market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream polyester resin market is average, and downstream customers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing neopentyl glycol.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and decline. The average market price is around 9600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8600.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8758.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.84%. The price has increased by 7.24% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene fluctuated slightly last month, while this week’s market was volatile and exploratory. Supply is tightening, international oil prices have rebounded significantly, cost support is good, and the styrene market continues to rise. Recently, styrene inventory has been low, and it is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will mainly rise.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week, while spot transactions of pure benzene have weakened. Supported by the rise in styrene market, transactions in the far month have been positive, with prices rebounding slightly. The transaction was good, and the refinery’s offer continued to rise during the day. However, the trend of pure benzene in East China did not meet market expectations, and buying gas in Shandong fell, resulting in a significant decrease in transaction volume.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene have fluctuated. PS prices fell earlier this week. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with a strong sense of caution on the market and insufficient confidence among merchants. The mainstream price of GPPS in the East China market is between 8950 and 10100 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9350 and 10550 yuan/ton.

The EPS market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 10125.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall, the transaction is average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly on demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable, with overall fluctuations among the three upstream materials. Among them, the acrylonitrile market continues its previous strong trend. Although the demand level is average, the price of propylene at the raw material end has surged, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has increased; In addition, due to the expansion of domestic production capacity losses in the early stage, there are now delays in resuming work on individual devices, resulting in a decrease in market supply and increased supply side support. Acrylonitrile leads to bullish guidance and price increases. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

At present, according to the news, international oil prices have risen, cost support is relatively strong, domestic styrene units have decreased, and there are many positive factors. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will be mainly strengthened and consolidated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market has temporarily stabilized this week (November 13-17). As of November 17, the price of 40D spandex was 32950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 11.72%.

This week, the domestic pure MDI market experienced a decline. Imported goods have gradually arrived at the port, and overall traders have increased their enthusiasm for shipping, but downstream demand is weak. Market spot mainstream negotiation 21500-21800 yuan/ton wire transfer in barrels for self pickup, with slightly lower import source prices. Driven by the decline in raw material BDO in the early stage, cost support has weakened. Currently, PTMEG prices are stagnant and the quotation for 1800 molecular weight remains at 21000 yuan/ton.

The terminal textile industry has entered a seasonal off-season, with some products having high inventory and low downstream stocking enthusiasm, mainly focusing on purchasing on demand. In terms of orders, winter orders have started to start as the weather turns colder, but currently, orders at the weaving end may not be sustainable, especially with the end of supplementary orders, and there is still pressure for weaving shipments to weaken again. In addition, the start-up rate of texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing has decreased locally, with the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms around 75%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current inventory pressure in spandex factories is high. For example, Taihe New Materials spandex currently has a production capacity of approximately 100000 tons and inventory is around two months. Before the substantial recovery of terminal demand, the expectation of weak demand and accelerated inventory accumulation is that the spandex market will operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on November 10th was 5633 yuan/ton. On November 16th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5533 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 1.78% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax fell first and then rose, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine fell, and the cost side was mixed. At present, the market demand is light, and downstream procurement is just needed. Manufacturers and distributors often adopt a wait-and-see attitude. As of November 16th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is around 5900 yuan/ton, while the national standard market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is around 5000-5300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week. Recently, the market has stabilized, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has dropped this week, with weak on-site trading and relatively stable market demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has stabilized recently, with downstream on-demand procurement and relatively weak demand side, resulting in fewer market inquiries. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6033.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the current mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was decent, with downstream procurement being the main demand and average demand. The enthusiasm for stocking up was not strong, and manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders. The number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On November 14th, the chemical index stood at 862 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable and weak.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of isooctanol in the Shandong region rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province increased from 11120.00 yuan/ton on November 6 to 11280.00 yuan/ton on November 9, and then dropped to 11160.00 yuan/ton on November 12, a decrease of 1.06%. Overall, the market price of isooctanol increased by 0.26% this week, and the weekend price increased by 21.75% year-on-year. On November 14th, the isooctanol commodity index was 82.50, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and an increase of 134.71% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose first and then fell this week. The price increased from 7090.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7270.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.54%. The weekend price decreased by 0.82% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price rose first and then fell this week. The price of DOP increased from 11241.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11358.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.04%, and the weekend price increased by 13.42% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to late November, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week (11.1-11.13), the market for chloroform fell. According to data from Business Society, as of November 13th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.50% from 2887 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have slightly increased, while the cost of trichloromethane has slightly increased; However, downstream demand is weak, transactions in the trichloromethane market are scarce, enterprises have accumulated a small inventory, and factory prices have gradually decreased.

In the near future (11.1-11.13), the domestic production of methane chloride has remained around 6.1%, and a plant in Shandong Province is planning to restart its operation.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the raw material methanol has slightly increased, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased, and the cost support for trichloromethane has strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65% from the 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of November 13th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has been sorted out around 600 yuan/ton.

In the off-season, the terminal only needs a small amount of support for refrigerants. Currently, the market for refrigerant R22 is declining, and the operating low point fluctuates narrowly, leading to a significant weakening of demand support for trichloromethane. In 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for trichloromethane demand will weaken in the medium to long term.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, on the one hand, weak demand has a significant impact on trichloromethane, and on the other hand, there is slight cost support in the short term. It is expected that the market for trichloromethane will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the later stage.

This week (11.6-10), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to decline, with a slight slowdown in the decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.78%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy has dropped to 60-70000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have maintained a reasonable level of operation, gradually released new production capacity, achieved mass production, and domestic supply has steadily increased. The overall production of silicon materials this month has slightly increased compared to the previous month, while downstream silicon wafer manufacturers have started operating lower, resulting in a decrease in demand for silicon materials due to production cuts. The market is experiencing an oversupply situation. Moreover, the slowdown in the shipment speed of silicon material manufacturers has led to significant inventory pressure, forcing them to lower prices for shipments.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises continues to decrease, mainly due to the inventory backlog of manufacturers in the early stage and the slowdown in downstream procurement. The inventory level of silicon wafers continues to operate at a high level to continue digesting inventory. Currently, the inventory level is gradually returning to a reasonable level, and the procurement intensity may rebound in the later stage. The quotation for silicon wafers remained unchanged this week and remained unchanged from last week. The mainstream transaction price of the M10 single crystal silicon chip is 2.40 yuan per chip; The mainstream transaction price for G12 single crystal silicon wafers is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the perspective of the terminal demand side, the prices of battery cells and components have been inverted, and the price of battery cells has continued to decline, with a slowdown in the decline. The average price of single crystal M10 battery cells has decreased by 0.05 yuan to 0.46 yuan, while G12 battery cells have decreased by 0.01 yuan to 0.52 yuan. Although the domestic installation rate is basically stable, external orders have decreased and overall terminal demand has slowed down.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the silicon material market will continue to maintain a destocking mode in the short term, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers will gradually be eased, and the decline in the future will further narrow. Due to insufficient demand increment, weak operation may continue to dominate in the later stage.