According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have weak quotations, with the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The manufacturers’ sales are average, and market transactions are light. On the market, the main focus is on wait-and-see, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in gold extraction, water purification, filter cartridge and other uses, especially in gold charcoal, where there are many inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators should be smoother. Imported carbonized materials have shown a rebound trend recently, and the industry can pay more attention.

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyformaldehyde in Shandong have been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5125.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.39% month on month and 5.67% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: narrow range consolidation and operation in the domestic methanol market. Last night, the Shanxi coking plant was shut down for maintenance, and the coal price fluctuated weakly, with no cost support for the market. Domestic supply is gradually recovering, and downstream demand may change or be limited. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market may be in a weak position to consolidate and operate.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidating, with average cost support. Downstream procurement remains in demand, and manufacturers are shipping normally. Analysts from the business company Polyformaldehyde expect prices to decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly increased this week, with the price of potassium chloride rising from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.83%. On November 6th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.03, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 64.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have fluctuated The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2800 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2900-2950 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2950-3050 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market increased slightly this week, from 7420.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7460.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.54%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.24% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly increased this week, rising from 5350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 540000 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.93%. The weekend price decreased by 11.11% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Analysis: On November 6th, at the beginning of the week, liquid ammonia in Shandong continued its upward trend last Friday. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 1.69%. The main reason is the continuation of tight supply. Mainly due to short-term malfunctions in the manufacturer’s equipment, partial shutdowns, and delayed supply. On Monday, large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei generally raised prices by 100 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer keeps up. In addition, downstream urea spot prices have been strongly affected by futures, resulting in strong performance, coupled with tight supply, and production restrictions in the Shanxi region. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that the equipment of northern liquid ammonia enterprises will recover in the near future, and the downstream industrial demand will be average. In the short term, liquid ammonia may not have enough momentum to push up, and the possibility of a high price drop cannot be ruled out.

1、 Trend analysis

It shows that copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 68056.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% from the 67711.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.21%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 4% and risen by 7%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly after a decline.

LME copper inventory

According to the above figure, the situation of LME copper inventory accumulation has eased, with inventory falling from high levels, which has boosted copper prices.

Macroscopically: Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market gave a dove like interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks, causing industrial metals and stocks, crude oil, and other assets to rise together, reflecting an improvement in investors’ risk appetite.

Supply side: Recently, there has been less disturbance in overseas copper mines, but the processing cost of copper concentrate has continued to decline, mainly affected by the demand for raw material replenishment in smelters at the end of the year. In September, the domestic refined copper production reached 1.012 million tons, an increase of 2.3% month on month and 11.3% year-on-year; Expected to reach 996000 tons in October.

On the demand side: Terminal consumption has rebounded, and some companies are buying on dips to replenish inventory.

To sum up: The recovery of macro sentiment has seen relatively stable terminal demand. The market’s dove bet on the Federal Reserve and the decline of US bond yields have pushed the US dollar down, and the metal pressure has been postponed, which further improved the prospects of metal demand. Global copper inventory levels have fallen, supporting copper prices. Copper prices are expected to experience strong short-term fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market first fell and then stabilized in October, and the prices of various wire drawing brands were overall reduced. As of October 31st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7742.86 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -2.95% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials in October, the domestic propylene market rebounded after falling due to the impact of crude oil fluctuations. As of the end of the month, it has not yet recovered to the price level at the beginning of the month. During the month, the European and American economies and geopolitical conflicts caused fluctuations in crude oil prices, resulting in a weak market and a simultaneous decline in PDH. At the end of the month, the trend of propane was poor, with only significant stability and small fluctuations in methanol. The upstream raw materials are generally weak, with poor support for PP.

The raw material flow in all directions is weak, and the cost side’s support for PP is weakened. In terms of industry load, the average industry load in October was around 79%, which fluctuated and adjusted during the month, with the position almost unchanged compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is stable, but in the second half of the month, some companies experienced unplanned maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply pressure. In terms of demand, the downstream production of plastic weaving remains at over 45%, while the production rate of film and injection molding enterprises remains around 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, with average trading activity, and the overall market for wire drawing materials is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also fell and stabilized. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7675 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -4.36% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.46% compared to the same period last year. Within the month, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material were operating with a horizontal load, and the operating rate was around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is orderly, and the prices of non-woven fabrics are in line with the market. The digestion speed of end products is normal. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may continue to suffer from cost and supply drag, and the consolidation market will continue.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has experienced narrow fluctuations. As of October 31st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8350 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by 0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.39%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has returned to normal, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is generally driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main benefits of melt blown materials are concentrated on the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a sideways consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market stabilized after a decline in October. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is poor, and the cost side’s support for the market is weakened. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of construction, and their purchasing operations tend to be weak and rigid. The current maintenance of some PP devices is about to begin, and it is expected that the PP market may be dragged down by the positive impact of supply contraction in the short term, leading to a more stable operation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly decreased in October. The average price of the mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China dropped from 13200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13075.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.95%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 26.23% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly decreased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of maleic anhydride significantly decreased in October. The price of maleic anhydride decreased from 8979.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7332.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.54%. The price at the end of the month increased by 3.27% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly decreased, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side perspective, the spandex market price stabilized at a high level in October. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.87% at the end of the month. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are generally proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early November, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream maleic anhydride market has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is average. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fell first and then rose in October, with an overall decline. From October 7th to 30th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16383 yuan/ton to 15683 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.27% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%.

At the beginning of the month, the overall follow-up ability of the aggregated MDI market was relatively average, and the market trend weakened and organized. The monthly closing price had a slightly average impact on the overall market driving force, and the market trading atmosphere was weak.

In the middle of the month, the main production enterprises completed the execution of the MDI plan for the month’s distribution channel aggregation, resulting in low inventory and tight supply, resulting in delayed shipments. Next month, the supplier maintenance will be more concentrated, and the supply inventory is expected to shrink, leading to a slight rebound in market prices.

In the latter half of the month, some production enterprises guided weekly price hikes, boosting market confidence among traders, and the market slowly rose. Continuing the mid month market rally, prices once again pushed upward.

On the supply side, after the holiday, some devices may have low negative operation due to adjusting the devices to solve some minor problems. The supply is expected to decrease slightly compared to the holiday period, and the overall supply rhythm will maintain a state of first increasing and then decreasing next month. On November 16th, the 600000 ton/year unit of Shanghai MDI factory began maintenance, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In October, the domestic pure benzene market was mainly organized in a narrow range. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for the business society was 7892.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: In October, the domestic aniline market experienced a significant decline. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 11525.00 yuan/ton. The impact of short-term aggregated MDI cost side bearish factors.

On the demand side, the demand side has started relatively slowly. With the arrival of winter in the north, the demand in the pipeline, spraying, and sheet metal industries has decreased compared to the previous period. The boosting power of the cold industry has not yet affected spot trading, and there has been an increase in attention within the market, but there is still a willingness to ship. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 27, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8166 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of propylene glycol 8466), the price was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.54%.

In October, the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. In early October, after the end of the National Day holiday, the atmosphere of propylene glycol trading on the market was cold, with weak downstream demand and limited new orders on the market. Insufficient downstream demand also affected the pace of propylene glycol shipments. On the market, shipments were slow, supply was under pressure, and supply and demand contradictions were revealed. Effective support on the market was insufficient, and the propylene glycol market continued to move towards low levels. On October 15th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 8100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.33% in the first ten days.

In late October, after the propylene glycol market fell to a low level, some factories did not have a strong willingness to continue reducing prices. The market began to stabilize and seek price support activation. With the phased replenishment of some downstream products, the demand for propylene glycol on the market improved, and the propylene glycol market also saw a slight turnaround. Some propylene glycol factories and suppliers raised the price of propylene glycol narrowly, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. However, after downstream demand calmed down, propylene glycol continued to rise weakly, and the wait-and-see sentiment on the market became stronger. The propylene glycol market once again experienced a slight decline and then consolidated. As of October 27th, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is quiet, with average downstream demand and limited new order transactions. There is still some wait-and-see and worry sentiment on the market. The propylene glycol data analyst from the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been stable recently. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, and the current price has decreased by 12.05% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has been relatively stable. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, and the market has continued to remain stable this week. As of October 26th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1120-1330 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol showed a slight upward trend, with good cost support. However, downstream plate factories have not started well, demand is weak, procurement is weak, and the formaldehyde market is fluctuating and consolidating.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has slightly increased. Currently, there is a possibility of a large downstream MTO device being put into operation, and the demand is good. In addition, macroeconomic benefits have also played a certain driving role. At the same time, port inventory has been significantly reduced, and the methanol market is gradually improving.

Recently, the methanol market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Downstream panel factories have maintained their demand for procurement, while formaldehyde manufacturers have shipped normally. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly rise in the near future.