1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1126 yuan/ton on October 16th, and 1120 yuan/ton on October 23rd. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.59%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has slightly declined this week. Although the urea market has risen, the current domestic and international demand is poor, and the bidding price of ammonium sulfate has been lowered. The market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, while dealers have poor enthusiasm for purchasing goods. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced operating rates and reduced demand for ammonium sulfate procurement. As of October 23rd, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1050 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1080-1130 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent downward trend in ammonium sulfate prices has resulted in low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream and distributors. At present, market demand is weak, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will mainly decline in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been operating in a weak state, with spot prices often decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 23, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.49% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently, with the price of raw material methanol showing a slight downward trend and poor cost support. Downstream demand procurement is maintained, while transactions in the formaldehyde market are flat, with mixed market fluctuations and market consolidation as the main trend.

On the supply side:

In the early stage, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, but the overall operating rate decreased last week, with an average load drop of about 3% to 74%. In terms of source of goods, most enterprises’ warehouses undertake low levels in the early stage, and their inventory positions are still acceptable. However, due to the impact of early profit market competition, it has dragged down the profit space of merchants and aggregation factories. The supply side has loosened its support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, and some enterprises need to digest their pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. At the same time, many business owners have bearish sentiment, and following up on operations is even more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The recent trend of the POM market has been fluctuating and declining, and last week’s market weakness continued. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has slightly decreased, and the overall supply of goods on site is abundant, while the support of suppliers for spot goods has weakened. On the demand side, terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and some raw material inventory has not yet been digested. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits in the current POM market, and the industry’s supply storage is expected to be broad. Therefore, it is expected that the POM market may continue to operate in a weak trend in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has been weak recently, with various wire drawing brands increasing. As of October 20th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7728.57 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+-3.13% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials in September, the domestic propylene market maintained stable operation after being supported by crude oil. However, in the short term, the insufficient rise in crude oil may lead to weak future market conditions, and the PDH side will weaken simultaneously. In terms of methanol, there has been significant stability and small fluctuations, with mixed fluctuations in the upstream raw materials of PP, and overall support is still in place.

The trend of raw materials in various directions varies, and the support for PP on the cost side is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average industry load has recently exceeded 81%, slightly lower than before. The overall supply of goods is stable, but some enterprises have experienced unplanned maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply pressure. In terms of demand, the downstream production of plastic weaving remains at over 45%, while the production rate of film and injection molding enterprises remains around 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, with average trading activity, and the overall market for wire drawing materials is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7687.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -4.21% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 5.48% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a narrow increase in load, and the operating rate has risen to over 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is orderly, with stable prices for non-woven fabrics being the main focus, and the digestion speed of end products is normal. It is expected that in the short term, the decline in fiber materials may be narrowed due to cost drag.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent market for melt blown PP has remained stable with little movement. As of October 20th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is about 8375 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.30%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has returned to normal, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is generally driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main benefits of melt blown materials are concentrated on the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a sideways consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the recent decline in the polypropylene market has narrowed. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is acceptable, and the support of the cost side to the market is average. The construction of terminal enterprises continues to maintain the previous level, and the purchasing operation is biased towards weak and rigid demand, accelerating the trend of profit and loss. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market may experience cost support and its decline will narrow.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 19, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7170 yuan/ton, which is 0.70% higher than the reference average price of 7120 yuan/ton on October 13.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 19, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7016 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 7016 yuan/ton on October 13. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid increased, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support has strengthened. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and there is currently no change in market supply. There is no significant increase in downstream demand, and market trading is weak. Under the drive of cost, some enterprises have raised the price of phosphoric acid. As of October 19th, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7200 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7150 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6450-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall high level consolidation of the phosphorus ore market has been operating, and there has been little change in the supply and demand side of the site. The overall supply of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in some regions is still tight, while downstream demand remains stable, with most of the orders already in demand and pre orders. Currently, the overall price of phosphorus ore in the site has not changed much. As of October 19th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 950-1050 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus increased. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is relatively good, with manufacturers mainly issuing preliminary orders and market prices slightly increasing. There are many downstream inquiries, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. Overall, procurement is relatively cautious, with a focus on taking what is needed and prioritizing what is needed. As of October 19th, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 26200-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased recently. The cost boost has driven up the price of thermal phosphoric acid. However, downstream demand is weak, and some dealers have not made any adjustments for shipment, resulting in limited growth in phosphoric acid. With the improvement of the yellow phosphorus market, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will continue to consolidate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 18th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3375.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Friday (October 13th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. Recently, the raw material sulfuric acid market has been operating weakly and steadily, with a narrow range of fluctuations in raw material methanol. The cost support is limited, and downstream procurement is just needed. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and the holders follow the market to ship. The enterprise quotation range is between 3200-3500 yuan/ton, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is mainly stable.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is not significant, and the market trading is orderly. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The rebound in crude oil, low PTA processing fees, and expected supply contraction have boosted the PTA market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly on October 16th, with an average market price of 5871 yuan/ton in the East China region, an increase of 0.28% compared to the previous trading day.

The ongoing escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has led to increased concerns about potential supply risks and a significant increase in international oil prices. On October 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $87.69 per barrel, up $4.78 or 5.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 90.89 yuan/barrel, an increase of 4.89 US dollars or 5.7%.

PTA factory has maintenance and load reduction phenomena. The current PTA industry is operating around 75%.

Entering mid October, the downstream polyester market demand gradually weakened. Recently, inventory has accumulated and production and sales have been average, resulting in poor demand for PTA in the short term. There is no expectation of significant increase in terminal orders, inventory digestion is insufficient, and the market atmosphere is cautious and wait-and-see. The current weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 65%, which will further decline due to this impact.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the high volatility of crude oil still provides support for PTA costs. PTA factory has a strong willingness to shut down for maintenance, and unplanned shutdowns will not be ruled out in the future. However, the downstream market has shown weak performance and limited support for PTA demand. It is expected that PTA prices will mainly undergo narrow fluctuations and adjustments in the near future.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 16th, the price of DOTP was 11540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.73% compared to the price of 12241 yuan/ton on October 7th. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, with a significant drop in PTA prices. In addition, downstream customer restocking has ended, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP costs has decreased. This week, the price of DOTP fluctuated and decreased.

PTA prices have dropped significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on October 16th was 5871 yuan/ton, a significant drop from the price of 6213.64 yuan/ton on October 7th, with a decrease of 5.51%. Since October, crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, PTA costs have decreased, and the market trading atmosphere is average. PTA demand is poor, and PTA prices have dropped significantly this week; As crude oil prices rebound and rise, PTA costs support an increase, and PTA prices stop falling and rebound.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 16th was 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to the fluctuating price of 12360 yuan/ton on October 7th. Upstream propylene prices have fallen, while the cost of isooctanol has decreased. This week, the downstream replenishment of isooctanol has ended, and the demand for isooctanol is poor. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and consolidated.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that PTA prices have significantly decreased this week, with isooctanol prices fluctuating and consolidating. Replenishment has ended, and downstream customers of isooctanol and PTA have poor purchasing enthusiasm. PTA prices have plummeted, and isooctanol prices have fluctuated and consolidated. Overall, the raw material cost of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and decreased, coupled with the end of downstream customer restocking of plasticizers, resulting in poor demand for plasticizers. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will plummet in the future.

The price of ortho xylene is weak and temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of ortho xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton or 5.43% compared to the 9200 yuan/ton price of ortho xylene on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable at 8700 yuan/ton. This week, crude oil prices rebounded and adjusted, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and fell, and the cost of ortho benzene decreased; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, with weak demand for ortho benzene and weak demand for cost reduction. This week, ortho xylene prices were weak and temporarily stable.

This week, the raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of mixed xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% compared to the price of 8200 yuan/ton on October 8th. Crude oil prices have rebounded and adjusted, mixed xylene prices have fluctuated and fallen, raw material costs have decreased, and the downward pressure on adjacent xylene market has increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of October 13th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on October 8th. The price of Naifa phthalic anhydride has decreased, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the phthalic anhydride market is operating cautiously, terminal demand remains cold, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that crude oil prices have rebounded and adjusted this week, mixed xylene prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of raw materials for adjacent xylene has decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the market for phthalic anhydride is weak. The downstream demand for adjacent benzene is still weak. In the future, both the upstream and downstream markets of the ortho benzene industry chain have declined, and the cost of ortho benzene has decreased. The demand for ortho benzene is weak, and it is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 12, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 9066 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 216 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39%, and a decrease of 9.69% compared to early September.

After the end of the Double Festival holiday, the overall domestic n-butanol market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. Two days before the start of the holiday, domestic logistics and transportation gradually resumed, and the downstream of n-butanol was briefly stocked, driving the overall focus of the n-butanol market to rise slightly. However, the sustained support for downstream demand is limited. After the demand side weakened, the market trading atmosphere was light. Starting from October 10th, many regions in Shandong saw weak decline in the n-butanol market, with some factories lowering the price of n-butanol by around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of October 12th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8800-8900 yuan per ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors

In terms of demand: After the Double Festival, although there was a brief period of positive demand in the n-butanol market, due to the lack of effective and sustained support for the market, the support for n-butanol became loose after the demand weakened, leading to a rapid decline in the n-butanol market.

In terms of cost: After the holiday, the overall trend of the propylene market has declined, and the support for n-butanol on the cost side is weak. The momentum for n-butanol to support the market is insufficient, and the market is weak and declining.

In terms of equipment: As October approaches, the basic maintenance of domestic n-butanol units has been completed, and factories that have completed the maintenance plan are gradually resuming production. The operating load of n-butanol units will increase, and the overall output will also be in an increasing period. Therefore, the support provided to n-butanol in terms of production supply and equipment operation is also average.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is light, and downstream stocking is cautious. Entering the fourth quarter, downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, and the overall downstream construction is average, with limited support for n-butanol. In addition, the current supply side of n-butanol is relatively loose, and the supply side support is average. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly be weak and adjusted for operation, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and slightly declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 11th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% from 15900 yuan/ton before the holiday. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have remained high, while the cost of nitrile rubber has remained basically stable; After the holiday, downstream inquiries were light and there were not many market transactions. The production enterprise’s quotation is temporarily stable.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have stabilized at high levels, and the cost of nitrile rubber has remained basically stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 11th, the price of butadiene was 8710 yuan/ton; As of October 11th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9825 yuan/ton.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been temporarily stable.

In the domestic nitrile rubber market, some brands have sufficient supply of goods, and merchants have slightly lowered their offers. Downstream rubber product industries such as rubber hoses and automotive parts have started stable operations. After the holiday, inquiries for nitrile rubber are cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market is slightly stagnant.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is relatively sufficient, and downstream inquiries are light. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.