According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 12, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 9066 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 216 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39%, and a decrease of 9.69% compared to early September.

After the end of the Double Festival holiday, the overall domestic n-butanol market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. Two days before the start of the holiday, domestic logistics and transportation gradually resumed, and the downstream of n-butanol was briefly stocked, driving the overall focus of the n-butanol market to rise slightly. However, the sustained support for downstream demand is limited. After the demand side weakened, the market trading atmosphere was light. Starting from October 10th, many regions in Shandong saw weak decline in the n-butanol market, with some factories lowering the price of n-butanol by around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of October 12th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8800-8900 yuan per ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors

In terms of demand: After the Double Festival, although there was a brief period of positive demand in the n-butanol market, due to the lack of effective and sustained support for the market, the support for n-butanol became loose after the demand weakened, leading to a rapid decline in the n-butanol market.

In terms of cost: After the holiday, the overall trend of the propylene market has declined, and the support for n-butanol on the cost side is weak. The momentum for n-butanol to support the market is insufficient, and the market is weak and declining.

In terms of equipment: As October approaches, the basic maintenance of domestic n-butanol units has been completed, and factories that have completed the maintenance plan are gradually resuming production. The operating load of n-butanol units will increase, and the overall output will also be in an increasing period. Therefore, the support provided to n-butanol in terms of production supply and equipment operation is also average.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is light, and downstream stocking is cautious. Entering the fourth quarter, downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, and the overall downstream construction is average, with limited support for n-butanol. In addition, the current supply side of n-butanol is relatively loose, and the supply side support is average. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly be weak and adjusted for operation, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.