1、 Trend analysis

It shows that copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 68056.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% from the 67711.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.21%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 4% and risen by 7%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly after a decline.

LME copper inventory

According to the above figure, the situation of LME copper inventory accumulation has eased, with inventory falling from high levels, which has boosted copper prices.

Macroscopically: Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market gave a dove like interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks, causing industrial metals and stocks, crude oil, and other assets to rise together, reflecting an improvement in investors’ risk appetite.

Supply side: Recently, there has been less disturbance in overseas copper mines, but the processing cost of copper concentrate has continued to decline, mainly affected by the demand for raw material replenishment in smelters at the end of the year. In September, the domestic refined copper production reached 1.012 million tons, an increase of 2.3% month on month and 11.3% year-on-year; Expected to reach 996000 tons in October.

On the demand side: Terminal consumption has rebounded, and some companies are buying on dips to replenish inventory.

To sum up: The recovery of macro sentiment has seen relatively stable terminal demand. The market’s dove bet on the Federal Reserve and the decline of US bond yields have pushed the US dollar down, and the metal pressure has been postponed, which further improved the prospects of metal demand. Global copper inventory levels have fallen, supporting copper prices. Copper prices are expected to experience strong short-term fluctuations.