Price trend

In early June, the domestic PA6 market first fell and then rose, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of June 12th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the price of Caprolactam rose last week. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and cost support is still acceptable. The spot supply of Caprolactam in the market decreased, and many enterprises raised prices slightly. The willingness to restock downstream has increased, with low price transactions being the main focus. It is expected that the market price of Caprolactam will stabilize and improve in the short term.

On the supply side:

In the near future, the overall load of PA6 production enterprises is relatively stable, operating in a narrow range of around 70%. The market supply is stable, and there is an expectation of an increase in operating rates in the future. There is a risk of inventory position continuing to rise, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average, with factory pricing under pressure.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stocking on site is cautious, with no improvement in the situation of new orders. Buyers are resistant to high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has been fluctuating in a narrow range. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of Caprolactam has recovered, and the support of PA6 cost side has been strengthened. It is expected that the PA6 market will be mixed in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the cost side market.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has fallen again. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on June 9th was 20333.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week’s weak market situation in PA66 continued last week, and overall, spot prices of various brands have generally declined. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry remained above 60% this week, which has decreased compared to the previous period. The coexistence of enterprise construction and maintenance shows a trend of rotating negative reduction, but the on-site supply is relatively sufficient, so the supply contraction is not significant in supporting the spot goods. Poor inventory digestion has affected corporate confidence, and pricing operations are cautious. In the upstream, the market for raw material Hexamethylenediamine was average, while that for Adipic acid fell sharply. The raw material pure benzene has been sorted out after a decline, and downstream demand has obvious off-season characteristics, resulting in a lack of positive guidance in the market. The raw material side of PA66 has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 fell weakly. The weakening of the raw material market has led to poor support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and the supply support is not obvious. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak consolidation market in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 6th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.25% compared to the price of 5387.50 yuan/ton on June 1st at the beginning of the month; The price of acetic anhydride decreased by 4.58% compared to 5462.50 yuan/ton on May 28th. Recently, acetic anhydride enterprises have been operating normally, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride. The price of raw material acetic acid has fluctuated and decreased, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased.

Acetic acid prices fluctuate and fall

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of June 6th, the price of acetic acid was 3166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.55% compared to June 1st, which was 3216.67 yuan/ton; Compared to May 28th, the price of acetic acid decreased by 2.56% to 3250 yuan/ton. The acetic acid market has fallen, the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased. The pressure on acetic anhydride to decline in the future has increased.

Future prospects

Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data Analyst believes that acetic anhydride enterprises are operating normally, with sufficient supply of acetic anhydride, weak downstream demand, poor purchasing enthusiasm of acetic anhydride customers, and an oversupply of acetic anhydride; Under the fluctuation of acetic acid prices, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and supply exceeds demand. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

This week (5.29-6.5), the nitrile rubber market was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.01% from last Monday’s 15475 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have fallen, while the cost of nitrile rubber has declined; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. This week, some companies have adjusted the factory prices of nitrile rubber. At present, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 13800-14000 yuan/ton.

This week (5.22-5.29), the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, and the cost of nitrile rubber decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 5th, the price of butadiene was 6378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.66% from last Monday’s 7140 yuan/ton; As of June 5th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 10.89% from last Monday’s 9300 yuan/ton at 8287 yuan/ton.

 
At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. However, there are rumors in the market that the Lanhua nitrile plant is scheduled for maintenance in mid June, and the supply of nitrile rubber may slightly tighten at that time.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is stable, coupled with the lack of significant downstream inquiry growth, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber industry chain will be in a weak situation in the short term, and the price of nitrile rubber will consolidate at a low level; In the later stage, if the nitrile rubber device is shut down for maintenance, the pressure on the nitrile rubber supply surface may be relieved to some extent, and there may be an upward trend for nitrile rubber in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic cyclohexanone market continues to be weak. From May 29th to June 2nd, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9325 yuan/ton to 9262 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.67%. The price decreased by 2.60% month on month and 20.22% year-on-year. Pure benzene is subject to weak fluctuations and lacks cost support. Downstream chemical fibers follow up on demand, while the supply of cyclohexanone products is abundant, and due to shipping resistance, the transaction focus has declined.

In terms of cost, the raw material is pure benzene. The maintenance of individual supply units has recovered, the domestic supply has increased, and the maintenance of downstream styrene and phenol units has affected the consumption of pure benzene. The price of domestic pure benzene market is weak and volatile, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. The downstream consumption of raw materials is dominated by inventory. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Business Society was 6530.50 yuan/ton. The cost side of cyclohexanone is bearish.

On the supply side, the operating rate of cyclohexanone industry units remained at around 60% this week, with a slight increase in supply. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone was slightly bearish.

On the demand side, caprolactam: the cost side was adjusted in a volatile manner, but the overall change was small. The supply and demand of caprolactam itself was basically stable. Enterprises delivered more early orders, and downstream polymerization plants replenished as needed. The caprolactam market fluctuated slightly. On June 2, the benchmark price of caprolactam in the business community was 12185.00 yuan/ton. The demand side of cyclohexanone is bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene may continue to experience weak volatility and weak cost support. The supply of goods has increased, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will operate in a weak manner in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price trend in May first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 19500.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 16200.00 yuan/ton. Within the month, it was reduced by 3300 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 16.92%.

In May, the TDI market rose first and then fell, with overall weakness and weakness. Before May 12th, the TDI market showed an upward trend, mainly due to tight spot prices on the market, leading to an increase in the guidance prices of major manufacturers. Under the guidance of the news, the prices offered by holders followed the trend; Starting from the 14th, the TDI market has shown a ladder like decline, with prices falling again and again, from 20166.67 yuan/ton to 16200.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 19.00%. During this stage, the market has continued to decline, mainly due to the impact of psychological factors. Since the release of news on the supply side and device production capacity, bearish sentiment in the trade market has been shrouded. Holders have been continuously lowering their orders to stimulate shipment, and the mentality of the operators has continued to be pessimistic. The focus of TDI transactions has been constantly downward, By the end of the month, TDI prices have stabilized.

The upstream toluene market first fell and then rose, with a price of 7130.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton or 4.30% compared to the price of 7450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the cost side, naphtha fluctuated and fell, while raw material prices were bearish. The price of toluene declined, and the performance of the toluene market was weak.

According to TDI data analysts from Business Society, the current TDI capacity utilization rate has increased, supplier support has weakened, and the trading market is cautious. Holders are actively shipping, but downstream demand is limited. Follow up on demand when entering the market to pick up goods, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the TDI market range will be sorted out in the future. Specific attention will be paid to factory news guidance and downstream follow-up after the holiday.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in May was “upside down”, rising first and then falling. From May 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11670 yuan/ton to 11442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.95% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.73%.

The main reason for the fluctuation of BDO price this time is in the supply side, with the domestic BDO operating rate at around 67%. And in mid to late May and early June, the maintenance/replacement of catalysts for the device involved a production capacity of 460000 tons (accounting for 15.8% of the total production capacity). However, the main downstream end product, spandex, has accumulated inventory and the market has declined. Other downstream end products have also shown weakness, increasing supply and demand pressure.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In May, the domestic calcium carbide market fluctuated narrowly, with a monthly increase of 5.77%. The high price consolidation of raw material blue charcoal has led to good cost support, insufficient downstream demand, and short-term fluctuations in the calcium carbide market. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level in May, with a decrease of 10.25% during the month. The market for methanol raw material coal is sluggish, and the overall market circulation is large. The supply-demand contradiction is still enveloping the methanol market. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been operating at low levels, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the downstream NMP industry is following the downward trend of the raw material market, and the load of TPU and PU slurry in the polyurethane field is around 40-50%. The enthusiasm for starting construction in the PBAT industry is not high, which suppresses the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The overall demand follow-up volume downstream of the terminal is limited. Short term BDO demand side biased bearish impact.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will soon restart, leading to an increase in supply and a weakening of supply side support. At the same time, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand at the end, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may continue to be weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of May 29, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 14360 yuan/ton, and on May 1 (silicone DMC reference was 15080 yuan/ton), the price fell 580 yuan/ton, or 4.77%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since May (5.01-5.29), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a weak decline. In early May, with the return of the Labor Day holiday, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC market was weak, and insufficient demand affected the pace of organic silicon DMC shipments. On the 8th and 9th, the prices of organic silicon DMC in Shandong large factories were continuously adjusted downwards, with a decrease of about 500 yuan/ton. Other factories also began to follow in the footsteps of large factories, reducing the prices of organic silicon DMC by about 200 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the market price of silicone DMC in China is around 14300-14800 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

In late May, the trading atmosphere in the silicone DMC market continued to be light, the downstream demand was not well boosted, and the demand was generally supported. The overall focus of the silicone DMC market continued to decline slightly, with a decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton. As of May 29, the domestic silicone DMC market price was near 14200-14500 yuan/ton.

Price trend

This week, the domestic POM market continued to be weak, with spot prices adjusting at a low level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 26th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 12950.00 yuan/ton, a 2.63% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market has gradually declined this week. The raw material methanol has declined significantly, and formaldehyde manufacturers are operating normally. However, downstream panel factories have weak demand, and formaldehyde shipments are under significant pressure. Inventory continues to be high, and the formaldehyde market continues to decline.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has rebounded, with some maintenance enterprises resuming work in the early stage, and the industry’s negative rate has rebounded to nearly 94%. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

At present, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, low operating rates, poor consumption release, and limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence and are more likely to complete task operations by reducing prices and placing orders towards the end of the month. Buyers tend to buy up rather than down, with a wait-and-see mentality. The actual orders are sporadic, and the actual orders are biased towards a single discussion.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the POM market was weak and sorted out. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has rebounded and there is ample supply. In addition, the inventory pressure in the industry continues to accumulate, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. The demand side enterprises have a relatively low demand for replenishment, and some downstream operating rates are low, resulting in a small amount of actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 25th, the price of PET water bottles has been in a weak trend, with an average price of 7320.00 yuan/ton. This week, PET prices have been mainly in a narrow and weak range, with a slight decrease of 1.08% compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton, and the overall market negotiation center is stable.

The domestic PET price is operating in a narrow range with a weak trend. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton, and the overall market is stable with a weak trend. At present, the focus of negotiations is stable, and manufacturers are actively shipping. Downstream procurement is on demand, and logistics is smooth. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On May 23, the rubber and plastic index was 649 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.77% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and a 22.92% increase from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.