Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, from 196.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 192.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a 2.04% drop. Weekend prices fell by 82.09% year-on-year. On May 21, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 29.88, which was unchanged from yesterday and set a new historical low in the cycle, a decrease of 84.11% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 783.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 786.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.43%. Over the weekend, prices fell 80.37% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, and the market price fell from 10114.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10028.57 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.85%. Weekend prices fell by 14.50% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 16950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16866.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.49%. Weekend prices fell by 18.39% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late May, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market started to decline slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the price of sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

Last week, the domestic PA66 market underwent a narrow adjustment. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on May 22nd was 20866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.62% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Last week, the PA66 market underwent a narrow adjustment, and overall, spot prices of various brands have increased. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently around 66%, which has decreased compared to the previous period. The contraction of supply has formed a certain support for the spot market, and after half a month of digestion, the market supply has decreased, and the supply side support has rebounded. The pricing operation of enterprises has been adjusted up in a narrow range, resulting in average inventory pressure. In terms of upstream, the raw material of adipic acid is relatively weak, while hexamethylene diamine is stable. Due to the lack of positive maintenance in the market, prices have remained stable for two consecutive weeks. The PA66 raw material end has average support for spot goods. The demand situation is stable, and terminal enterprises need to follow up on their purchases. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue to consolidate its market in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the spot price of PA66 corrected within a narrow range. The raw material market is weak, and the cost support for PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise has decreased, supply has tightened, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that in the short term, PA66 may be supported by suppliers and tend to be more organized and operated.

The domestic phenol market continues to decline, and according to the market analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price of phenol in East China has dropped to 7200 yuan/ton.

Market Trends of Phenol in Major Regions of China

The factory has centrally lowered prices, with Sinopec North China lowering prices by 200 to execute 7300 yuan/ton, and Sinopec East China lowering prices by 100 to execute 7300 yuan/ton. Lihua Yiwei Yuan lowered the price by 200 yuan to execute 7300 yuan/ton.

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on May 19th is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly ups and downs

East China region/ 7180-7200./ -200

Shandong region/ 7300./ -100

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 7300./ -100

South China region/ 7650./ -300

The supply side is loose, and the fluctuation in port inventory at the beginning of the week was not significant, lasting at 28000 tons. In addition, due to the impact of some domestic goods being urged to pick up goods in the middle of the week, traders actively shipped out at a discount.

The demand side has not changed much, and the small orders at the end just need to participate, and due to the factory’s downward adjustment, downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased.

Next Wednesday, there will be a parking plan for the package, and a reduction in supply will be beneficial and stimulating for the market. However, the progress of downstream procurement is also crucial. The business community is expected to push up next week, but the increase is limited, with a focus on terminal demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the first half of May, with spot prices of various brands showing mixed fluctuations. As of May 16th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15616.67 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.21% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent market for bisphenol A has gradually declined. At the end of last month, it was affected by the increase in pure benzene and phenol at the raw material end, and the far end cost of crude oil has decreased significantly in the past half of the month. Bisphenol A has weakened its support from the cost side. The market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the mentality of the holders is not good. The focus of the offer has decreased, and it is expected that the market situation may be weak and difficult to improve.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC has been adjusted and operated in the range of around 70% for half a month, and the industry has not yet shaken off its high load position in the past three years, resulting in abundant on-site supply. Last week, some devices lowered their load, with an overall decrease of 4% being relatively narrow, which resulted in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream PC companies just need to maintain production and have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of May, the PC market remained weak and stable, with narrow fluctuations. The upstream bisphenol A market has fallen, weakening support for PC costs. The high load of domestic polymerization plants remains stagnant, and there is no improvement in demand side follow-up, while supply side pressure remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to operate in a weak position.

In the first half of May, the nitrile rubber market slightly fluctuated and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from 15825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a cycle high of 15950 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber has fluctuated slightly; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. The factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises was significantly increased in early May, and nitrile rubber merchants made a slight adjustment in their quotations. At present, the mainstream market price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 15400-15600 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream reported at 16900-17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14900-15200 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported 15100~15300 yuan/ton.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material butadiene decreased and the price of acrylonitrile increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in the cost of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of butadiene was 8281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44% from 8851 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 15th, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 1.55% from 9662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9812 yuan/ton.

 
At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. But there are maintenance plans for the later part of the second quarter.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is loose, coupled with the insignificant increase in downstream inquiries, the nitrile rubber industry chain is currently in a weak situation; In the later stage, it is expected that nitrile rubber enterprises will have maintenance plans in the second quarter, which may alleviate supply pressure to some extent. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term, and it is still necessary to pay attention to enterprise maintenance and demand trends.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (May 12th): 175.00 yuan/ton

On May 12, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell sharply, 20 yuan/ton lower than that on May 11, down 10.26%, 41.67% year-on-year. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market for polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

In the future, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid may drop slightly, with the average market price of about 170 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3988 yuan/ton, which is 4398 yuan/ton compared to May 4th. This week, the price of liquefied natural gas in China decreased by 9.32%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, domestic liquefied natural gas prices continued to decline and rebounded to rise. After the May Day holiday, there was an oversupply in the market, weak trading on the market, strong willingness of liquid plants to discharge their inventory, and a decrease in the price of liquefied natural gas. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have lowered their prices. On the afternoon of May 9th, PetroChina Northwest Liquid Plant bid for raw gas prices in mid May (May 11-20). The starting price is 2.08 yuan/square meter, and the transaction volume is 2.19-2.36 yuan/square meter. The low end is reduced by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared to the previous period, while the high end is reduced by 0.18 yuan/square meter compared to the previous period. The transaction volume is 80 million square meters, and there is no unsold auction. Due to the cost decline, the price of liquefied natural gas continues to weaken. After continuous price reductions, the pressure on the liquid level was relieved, and prices rebounded and rose on Thursday.

On May 11th, the domestic mainstream market’s liquefied natural gas quotation situation:

Region/ offer

Inner Mongolia region/ 3800-4100 yuan/ton

Shaanxi region/ 3830-4050 yuan/ton

Shanxi region/ 3800-4200 yuan/ton

Ningxia region/ 4000-4120 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 4050-4100 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 4100-4450 yuan/ton

Sichuan region/ 3630-4050 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 4400-4500 yuan/ton

3、 Future Market Forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic liquefied natural gas market has started to rebound and rise after a continuous decline, and downstream restocking has begun to increase. At present, the market is in a stage of consolidation and consolidation, and it is expected that the domestic liquefied natural gas market will mainly consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 3400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3325.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.21%. On May 7th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 105.56, a decrease of 1.58 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.54% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 81.22% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have slightly decreased The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3100-3300 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2700-2800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 8620.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8520.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.16%. The weekend price fell by 9.52% year-on-year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased, from 5475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.91%. The weekend price decreased by 24.48% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8620.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The current price has decreased by 4.70% compared to the previous year, and the current price has decreased by 9.52% compared to the previous year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent decline in the potassium carbonate market has been the main trend, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, and the market price of potassium chloride continues to decline. The transaction volume in the potassium carbonate market is flat, and the shipment volume is poor, resulting in a decline in the potassium carbonate market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 8300-8500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and fallen: on May 6th, the distribution price of potassium chloride by Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. was around 3300 yuan/ton, and the prices have remained stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. During the May Day holiday, the potassium fertilizer market did not have strong transactions. After the holiday, the market is currently dominated by bearish conditions, with low demand and abundant supply of potassium fertilizer, resulting in oversupply.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has entered a low season with high inventory, and downstream purchases remain in demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 30th, the zinc price was 21374 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% compared to the zinc price of 22782 yuan/ton on April 1st. Weak demand and increased supply led to a volatile decline in zinc prices in April.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, leading to a decline in the level of manufacturing prosperity. In April, due to factors such as insufficient market demand and the rapid recovery of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter, which formed a high base, the PMI of the manufacturing industry fell below the critical point, and the economic level fell month on month. The production index and equipment manufacturing industry index are still in the expansion range, and it is expected that production and market demand will steadily rebound in the future. The economy will still maintain a recovery momentum, but the overall growth rate may be lower than market expectations, and the support for the future zinc market’s rise will weaken.

Zinc concentrate processing costs decreased in April

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in April, the zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, but the pace of decline slowed down. The enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start operations stabilized, and the expected decrease in zinc market production was still supported by the rise of the zinc market.

Zinc prices fluctuate and fall in London LME market

From the trend chart of zinc ingot prices in the London LME market, it can be seen that zinc prices in London experienced a significant fluctuation and decline in April. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market has increased, and London’s zinc ingot inventory has greatly increased. The demand in the international market remains weak, and the international zinc price has significantly fluctuated and fallen.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the economy is still weak, with zinc prices experiencing a significant fluctuation and decline in April. The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises to start construction has declined, and the supply of domestic zinc market has decreased. However, in the international market, the energy crisis in Europe has eased, and the starting of European zinc smelting enterprises has increased, and the supply of zinc market has increased. In general, the supply of zinc market is sufficient, but the economic weakness is insufficient. In the future, there is sufficient supply of zinc in the market, and the recovery on the demand side is limited. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.