According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 17, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7366 yuan/ton. Compared to March 12 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7166 yuan/ton), the price increased by 200 yuan/ton, or 2.79%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, this week (3.13-3.17), the domestic butanol market in Shandong Province as a whole showed an upward trend. This week’s rise in the n-butanol market was mostly due to the phased fluctuations in the demand side. Downstream demand for n-butanol was positive, with a good trading atmosphere on the floor and improved new orders. Supported by demand, the overall domestic n-butanol market rose steadily, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton during the week. The overall change in the construction of n-butanol supply side this week was not significant, and the supply side provided general market support. As of March 17, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the n-butanol field operators have a good mentality, and the overall improvement of n-butanol shipments provides support for market confidence. The n-butanol statistician of the Business Agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is expected to be strong and mainly subject to adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Orthoxylene prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price trend chart of ortho xylene of the business agency, as of March 20, the price of ortho xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, up 2.41% from 8300 yuan/ton on March 1. The ortho xylene industry chain is in a stalemate, and the domestic ortho xylene market has fluctuated and risen this week.

The market of raw material mixed with xylene fluctuated and fell this week

As can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency, as of March 20, the price of mixed xylene was 7370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.51% compared to the price of 7560 yuan/ton of mixed xylene on March 10; The price of mixed xylene decreased by 1.07% compared to 7450 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. This week, the price of mixed xylene fell, and the upward momentum of orthoxylene weakened. The downward pressure increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stopped rising and fell this week

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community, as of March 20, the quotation for phthalic anhydride of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of ortho phthalic anhydride of 8537.50 yuan/ton on March 10; Compared to the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 1, the increase was 2.96%. This week, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell back, while the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant and stabilized, while support for the rise of ortho xylene remained.

Future prospects

Analysts from the business news agency Orthoxylene Data believe that this week, the market in the upstream and downstream of the Orthoxylene industry chain stopped rising and remained stagnant. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, while the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell. The support for Orthoxylene growth weakened and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the demand support for the decline in the cost of orthoxylene remains, and it is expected that the price of orthoxylene will stabilize in the future.

Trade name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (March 20th): 7433.33 yuan/ton

On March 20th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.36% compared to March 17th, and down 33.83% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. The price of raw material propylene rose slightly, increasing cost support. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market declined slightly, and downstream customers showed moderate enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde procurement.

In the future, it is expected that the market price of isobutyraldehyde in China may fluctuate slightly and rise, mainly through consolidation. The average market price is around 7500 yuan/ton.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1092 yuan/ton; Compared to March 12th, prices remained basically stable; Compared to March 1st (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1074 yuan/ton), the price was increased by 18 yuan/ton, or 1.68%; Compared to December 8th (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1056 yuan/ton), the price was increased by 36 yuan/ton, or 3.41%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, in early March, supported by the gradual improvement of the downstream demand side, the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore market as a whole ushered in an upward movement. Entering this week (3.13-3.17), the overall domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable at a high level. The overall supply side of the phosphate rock field remains tight, and the supply side continues to support high market quotations. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, the downstream demand of the terminal continues to increase, and the downstream demand side of the phosphate rock performs steadily. As of March 17, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is referenced around 1050-1150 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is referenced around 960-990 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphorus ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and factors such as the raw ore specification and the powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated on a real basis.

Prediction and analysis of future market trend of phosphate rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is good, the supply and demand transmission is smooth, and the overall market support is good. The phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate at a high and strong level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 16, the zinc price was 22438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 23220 yuan/ton on March 9. The spread of the banking crisis in Europe and the United States has dampened market sentiment, and zinc prices have fallen sharply this week.

Several banks in the United States have failed

Two days after the collapse of the Silicon Valley bank, the American Signature Bank in New York State was also closed by regulatory authorities, after another cryptocurrency bank, Silvergate Capital, announced that it would cease operations as early as March 8. Within a week, three American banks failed in succession! Most European and American stock markets collapsed, the banking crisis spread, and market sentiment was dampened. Commodity prices generally fell, while zinc prices followed suit.

Credit Suisse Crisis Triggered

Credit Suisse disclosed in its latest financial report that it had found “significant defects” in its internal control, while its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said that due to regulatory restrictions, it was unable to provide more financial support. The news “ignited” European and American stock markets. Most European and American stock indexes collapsed, and safe haven assets such as gold, treasury bond bonds and the US dollar rose in succession. Market concerns about the future economic downturn have intensified, with commodity prices generally falling, London’s zinc overnight market plummeting, and domestic zinc prices falling even further.

Aftermarket Forecast

According to the data analysts of Business News Agency, the banking crisis spread, the market sentiment was depressed, most of the stock markets in Europe and the United States collapsed, and the yield of treasury bond plummeted, increasing the risk of financial crisis and worries about the future economic downturn. The market sentiment in the zinc market is depressed, and concerns about insufficient future demand have intensified. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend since March. As of March 9, the average market price in East China was 5872 yuan/ton, up 4.92% from the beginning of the month and down 10.42% year on year.

From the perspective of PTA supply side, there are many PTA units under maintenance and production reduction at present, among which, 325 thousand tons of Luoyang Petrochemical were overhauled on March 3, and 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical were overhauled on March 6. The industry started about 72%, and PTA was slightly destocked. Therefore, in terms of supply and demand, PTA is expected to go out of stock in April, supporting the strength of PTA prices.

However, the negative expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase led to the continuous decline of the international crude oil price, which had a certain inhibition on the rise of PTA. As of March 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.72/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel.

In the downstream, polyester starts remain at a high level of more than 80%, and domestic orders in spring and summer have increased. In the context of a moderate recovery in demand, although there is no significant increase, it can maintain at a high level of rigid demand. However, foreign trade orders are still not improving. The factory feedback that new orders are insufficient, and the final foreign trade orders of weaving factories shrink.

Some PTA units are planned to increase the load next week, and the new production capacity of 2.5 million tons of PTA in Guangdong may be tested. At the same time, the downstream market still faces insufficient demand and uncertain foreign trade prospects. Analysts of Business Agency believe that the PTA market price may weaken due to shocks.

The spot price of silicon metal continued to fall this week, with a drop of about 100-150 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 13, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 17660 yuan/ton, down by% 0.95 month-on-week. The main reason for the stepwise decline of the spot silicon price is that the downstream consumption is slow, the metal silicon inventory is weak, and the market confidence is weak. At present, many silicon enterprises are still under the pressure of inventory and capital, and have to reduce the price to ship. The futures market continued to decline – 3.03% this week to close at 16960 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 13th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 17500-17800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 17500-17600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 17500-17600 yuan/ton, with an average of 17550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 17300-17500 yuan/ton, with an average of 17400 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 18100-18200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18150 yuan/ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price

Supply:

The total number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 339. As of March 10, the silicon metal furnace opening rate was about 47.35%, 154 in Xinjiang, 27 in Sichuan and 55 in Yunnan. The supply of silicon metal remained stable, and the number of furnace starts increased slightly. Among them, the operating rate in Southwest China remains low, and the boiler shutdown in Sichuan is about 70%. In addition, due to the limited impact of the film, it is expected that there will be many factories and households in the southwest region to stop production and repair.

Demand:

Polycrystalline silicon stabilized after rising, and the mainstream range reached the range of 200-225000 yuan/ton. The supply side has not changed much, the operating rate of enterprises has maintained a medium-high level, and the number of orders signed by large factories has continued to follow up, and new orders have been signed in April. However, the price of downstream silicon wafers is weak, the bargaining power of silicon manufacturers is weakened, and the price of large silicon manufacturers mostly remains at the price level of last week, which is expected to maintain interval adjustment later.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price was 19100 yuan/ton. The unsatisfactory consumption in the terminal automobile industry has led to the weak performance of aluminum alloy, and the purchase of silicon metal has just to be replenished.

The domestic silicone DMC market fell, and the market price was 16960 yuan/ton. The overall performance of the downstream demand of silicone DMC is still calm, the supply and demand transmission is slow, and the new orders received from the downstream are not followed up in time. In addition, some organosilicon plants have shutdown and maintenance plans this month, and the overall operating rate of organosilicon DMC has been reduced, which has suppressed the demand for metal silicon.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the supply of silicon metal has maintained a small growth, but the market demand is lack of support, and the empty side of the silicon market has a significant strength. After the recent two sessions, the policy has supported the consumption of silicon industry chain, and the cost in the southwest region is supported, and the decline space of metal silicon is gradually limited. It is expected that metal silicon will run weakly and stably in the short term.

This week, the lead market (3.3-3.10) rose first, then fell, and fell overall. The average price of the domestic market was 15125 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 15085 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.26%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the end of the peak season, the price continued to weaken, and the price rose slightly after the holiday.

In terms of futures market, Lun-lead fell as a whole this week, with the shock range of USD 2050-2150/ton. LME inventory increased by 200 tons this week, and Lun-lead support weakened. From the macro point of view, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week further increased, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the lead price fell. Shanghai lead fluctuated this week, with the main operating range of 15150-15350 yuan/ton.

The trend of the spot market this week was basically the same as that of Shanghai Lead, which rose first and then fell. On the supply side, the operating rate of primary lead increased slightly this week, and some maintenance plants resumed work this week. In terms of demand, the downstream is still in the off-season, the operating rate has declined slightly recently, the purchase intention of the storage enterprises is slightly low, the inventory is mainly accumulated as a whole, and the downstream maintains the purchase in demand. In general, the lead ingot market is still weak. It is expected that the future market will remain volatile and weak, and the market fluctuation in the off-season will still follow the macro factors.

The base metal index stood at 1203 points on March 11, which was the same as yesterday, down 25.56% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 10th week of 2023 (3.6-3.10), there was a total of 1 commodity in the non-ferrous sector, with cobalt (2.33%) rising. There are 16 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 1 commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were tin (-5.39%), nickel (-4.47%) and silver (-3.72%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.33%.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 145000 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last week, the market of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the overall price changed little. The mainstream price range was around 145000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not accepted.

This week, lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, with a limited range of price fluctuations. At present, the mainstream price is 145000 yuan/ton. The upstream price is weak, and the cost support of lithium iron phosphate is insufficient. The downstream purchase is based on demand, and the manufacturers supply only old customers. The overall market operation is stable, the operating rate is normal, and the logistics is smooth. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate operates smoothly.

Chemical commodity index: The chemical index reached 923 points on March 9, which was the same as yesterday, down 34.07% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 54.35% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of lithium iron phosphate of the Business Society believes that the lithium iron phosphate market is mainly stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the rare earth market has continued to decline since March, and the trend of the domestic rare earth market has declined. The rare earth index was 587 points on March 6, down 15 points from yesterday, down 41.71% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 116.61% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium all fell in China. As of the 7th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 755000 yuan/ton, down 7.93% from the 28th; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 625000 yuan/ton, down 8.42% since March; The price of neodymium oxide was 655000 yuan/ton, down 7.09%; The price of neodymium metal was 815000 yuan/ton, and the price trend fell by 8.94% in March; The price of praseodymium metal was 820000 yuan/ton, down 7.87%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 635000 yuan/ton, down 5.58%.

The domestic light rare earth market demand is hard to be optimistic. The downstream magnetic material enterprises still focus on digesting the inventory. The new order situation is rare and the purchase is very light. The metal demand situation in the rare earth market has not improved. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. In addition, the transaction situation of the rare earth oxide inquiry is also not optimistic. The prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is very cold, coupled with the gradual resumption of production enterprises, the supply of light rare earth market is increasing, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly declining.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.97 million yuan/ton as of the 7th, down 8.8% from the price of the 28th; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.96 million yuan/ton, down 9.26%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.79 million yuan/ton, down 5.9%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 10.55 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 13.95 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths has continued to decline, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, and the downstream procurement is scarce. The oversupply has made the market price decline difficult to change. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the market price of heavy rare earth is lower.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis, down 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, and the market share reached 24.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for new energy has declined, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market has declined.

The recent purchase list of rare earth downstream businesses shows poor demand. In addition to the increase in upstream supply, the contradiction between supply and demand is acute, and the transaction situation is rare. In the short term, the price of rare earth market is mainly declining. In the long term, the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth are sustainable development. The demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and the development of rare earth industry is optimistic.