Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2799.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2835.62 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.31%, up 5.96% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on March 5 was 131.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 13.42% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 137.21% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, and urea supply was normal

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6082.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5950.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.17%, down 19.00% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is low, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1480 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4506.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.48%, up 0.08% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fell slightly, and support for urea prices weakened. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8275.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.10%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has gradually followed up, and industrial demand has increased. The use of fertilizer for spring ploughing is gradually followed up, and the agricultural demand is good. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is general. The start of plate and melamine enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly needed. From the perspective of supply, some gas-head enterprises have started to resume production. The daily output of urea is about 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is relatively sufficient.

Rising after a small shock

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of March. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea are low and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand increased. Some gas-head enterprises began to resume production, and the daily output of urea was about 16-17 million tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1256.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1283.33 yuan/ton, up 2.12%. The current price fell 7.51% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fluctuated and risen. From the above figure, we can see that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has risen this week. As of March 3, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1250-1350 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol rose, and the downstream plate factories maintained the purchase just in need, while the formaldehyde manufacturers were more active in shipping, and the market fluctuated.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, and the methanol market in southern Shandong was consolidated and operated, with the local ex-factory price of 2600-2650 yuan/ton, and the high-end price was quoted; The delivery price in Linyi is 2660-2670 yuan/ton. Downstream demand changes are limited, the fluctuation of international oil prices is relatively large, and the market is also in a negative mood, and the methanol market subsequently falls in a narrow range.

Recently, the methanol market has been volatile and low, the cost support is not good, and the downstream is still just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde market is likely to follow the methanol fluctuation, so the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Association predicted that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is mainly volatile.

The nitrile rubber market continued to rise in February. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price was 17475 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 6.23% from 16450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of nitrile rubber raw materials was running at a high level, with a small amount of replenishment in the downstream, and the market supply was relatively stable. The listing price of nitrile rubber enterprises was increased, and the market offer rose. As of February 28, the ex-factory price of orchid nitrile 3305 was 17200 yuan/ton.

In February, the domestic nitrile rubber plant started steadily.

In February, the price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose, and the cost of nitrile rubber was supported. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9887 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 6.52% from 9282 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of February 28, the price of acrylonitrile was 10500 yuan/ton, up 4.35% from 10062 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

At the beginning of the month, the downstream stock preparation supported the sharp rise of nitrile rubber. With the high price of nitrile rubber in the middle and late days of the month, the downstream replenishment speed slowed down, and the market of nitrile rubber in the middle and late days of the month had a narrow consolidation.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business agency believe that the current high raw material price is supported by the cost of NBR, while the downstream demand is slowed in the short term, and the demand support is weak in the short term. It is expected that the NBR market will be consolidated in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners was 2926.50 yuan/ton on February 20, and 2864.00 yuan/ton on February 28, a decrease of 2.14%.

The petroleum coke commodity index on February 28 was 222.76, down 1.94 points from yesterday, down 45.50% from the cycle peak of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 233.02% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late February, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries fell sharply, and the delivery and investment of local refineries slowed down. At present, the petroleum coke storage in domestic ports is high, and the supply of petroleum coke market is sufficient, and the intention of receiving goods from downstream enterprises is general.

The recent trend of international crude oil prices is volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, and the economic data is strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

The calcined coke market declined in late February; The market of silicon metal remained stable. As of February 28, the price was 17960 yuan/ton; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is down. As of February 28, the price is 18340 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of the Business Society predicted that the international crude oil market in late February was volatile and downward, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At present, the domestic petroleum coke storage is high, the imported coke storage is high, the market supply is sufficient, the local refining enterprises are under pressure to ship, and the downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase as required. It is expected that in the near future, the weakness of petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic PTA market declined slightly. On February 27, the average PTA spot market price was 5597 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous day, down 1.96% year on year.

PTA devices have been restarted successively, and the supply side has increased. At present, a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned to restart on February 28; A 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest is planned to restart on February 28; A 2.25 million ton PTA plant in Northeast China was restarted at the end of February and is currently under load increase.

In the crude oil market, the international crude oil futures closed higher on February 24, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $76.32/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures at $82.82/barrel. Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost oil prices. However, the global economic recession is expected to superimpose high oil inventories in the United States to limit the rise of oil prices.

From the downstream demand side, the terminal weaving startup rate rose, the terminal orders slightly improved, and the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased to more than 67%. However, the terminal recovery progress is slow, the follow-up of new orders is not positive, and the demand expectation has not been fulfilled.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that under the current low processing costs, it is still necessary to pay attention to the maintenance and load reduction dynamics of large factories. In addition, the rigid demand margin rebounded, but poor orders will still inhibit the sustainability of demand. With the start of the traditional peak season of “gold, silver and silver”, it is expected that demand will recover, the speed of PTA inventory accumulation will slow down, and the short-term PTA price will rise in a narrow range.

The price of DOTP rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the average price of DOTP was 9950 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the average price of 9925 yuan/ton on February 17. Cost support is limited, and the price of DOTP rose slightly this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 24, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from 9500 yuan/ton on February 17. Downstream demand is still weak. Downstream customers mostly replenish stocks on Monday and Tuesday. With the increase of replenishment, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and increased. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and adjusted this week. The cost support for DOTP is still there, and the upward momentum for DOTP price is still there.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the PTA price was 5617.27 yuan/ton, up 1.71% from the price of 5522.73 yuan/ton on February 17. Upstream raw material prices rose at a high level, PTA prices rose slightly, DOTP cost support still exists, and DOTP has a strong upward momentum in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, rose slightly this week, the price of PTA rose slightly, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material rose, the demand for DOTP remained weak, and downstream customers were on the hunt for bargains. In general, the cost support is still weak, and the demand is still weak. It is expected that the DOTP will shake and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12233 yuan/ton on February 17 and 12200 yuan/ton on February 23. Domestic caprolactam prices fell 0.27% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene was increased, and the cost support was acceptable. The spot supply in the market is reduced, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and deals are made at low prices. The market of caprolactam is mainly shaken, sorted and operated.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic price of pure benzene is 6900-7450 yuan/ton.

The price of downstream domestic PA6 market fell this week. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased steadily, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, it tends to be rigid. As of February 23, the reference price of PA6 was 14133.33 yuan/ton

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The caprolactam analyst of the Business Agency believes that the caprolactam market has been in consolidation and operation recently, and the terminal operating load has been increased, and the purchase is just needed. At present, there is no major fluctuation in the market. It is expected that caprolactam prices will be stable in the short term.

On February 21, the price of acetic anhydride dropped slightly

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride was 5250 yuan/ton on February 21, down 0.71% from the price of 5287.50 yuan/ton on February 20. The cost fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fell again on February 21.

Analysis points

The price of acetic acid fell, the price of methanol fell, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell, the start of acetic acid enterprises was stable, and the supply of acetic acid was sufficient; The sales situation of acetic anhydride is poor, the downstream just needs to purchase, the customer’s purchase intention is general, and wait-and-see is the main reason. The acetic anhydride manufacturer starts at a high level, and the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient. Acetic anhydride has great downward pressure.

Future prospects

The cost fell and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride was expected to fall in the future.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (February 20): 2769 yuan/ton

The comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly on February 20, up 13 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, from February 17, and 3.94% year-on-year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is about 1650 yuan/ton, the price has dropped by 130 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand increased. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

It is expected that the domestic urea market price will rise slightly in the future, with the average market price of about 2780 yuan/ton.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of the 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8287.5 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the price of 8237.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and down 2.50% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably. Now, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is sufficient, the delivery of phthalic anhydride is general, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile.

Cost side: o-benzene market is stable

The price trend of domestic orthobenzene is temporarily stable. As of the 17th, the price of orthobenzene was 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend is temporarily stable. The supply of orthobenzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory changes little. The stable price of orthobenzene brings some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

Demand side: DOP market has dropped sharply, mainly purchasing on demand

The downstream DOP market price continued to decline by 1.29%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9920 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream DOP price is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand for plasticizer industry is weak. The decline of DOP price has affected the low price of phthalic anhydride, but the overall price is low.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is stable in the short term, but the market of the downstream plasticizer industry continues to decline. The supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will fall in the later period.