1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners was 2926.50 yuan/ton on February 20, and 2864.00 yuan/ton on February 28, a decrease of 2.14%.

The petroleum coke commodity index on February 28 was 222.76, down 1.94 points from yesterday, down 45.50% from the cycle peak of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 233.02% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late February, the price of petroleum coke from local refineries fell sharply, and the delivery and investment of local refineries slowed down. At present, the petroleum coke storage in domestic ports is high, and the supply of petroleum coke market is sufficient, and the intention of receiving goods from downstream enterprises is general.

The recent trend of international crude oil prices is volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, and the economic data is strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

The calcined coke market declined in late February; The market of silicon metal remained stable. As of February 28, the price was 17960 yuan/ton; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is down. As of February 28, the price is 18340 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of the Business Society predicted that the international crude oil market in late February was volatile and downward, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At present, the domestic petroleum coke storage is high, the imported coke storage is high, the market supply is sufficient, the local refining enterprises are under pressure to ship, and the downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase as required. It is expected that in the near future, the weakness of petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out.