According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate fell again and again this week. The average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on February 16 was 426600 yuan/ton, down 3.4% from the average price of 441600 yuan/ton on February 12. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 452600 yuan/ton on February 16, down 3.21% from the average price of 467600 yuan/ton on February 12.

From the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices continued to maintain a downward trend this week. In terms of supply, lithium carbonate production enterprises maintained steady production, and the mica smelting enterprises affected by environmental protection events in the early stage resumed production, and the new capacity climbed significantly. At present, with the warming of temperature, the output of salt lakes has increased, and the total output has increased slightly, leading to an increase in the overall supply.

In terms of demand, the overall recovery of downstream and terminal markets is slower than expected, and the load rate of some production lines remains low. In addition, the current falling price of lithium carbonate has left the industry in a wait-and-see state, and there has not been a large number of purchases. The market is mostly just in need of purchase.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market has declined, the upstream spodumene market has been in weak operation recently, the lithium carbonate price has also been falling, the market mentality is insufficient, the downstream merchants are not willing to receive goods, the actual market transactions are limited, most of them are low-price orders, the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations has declined, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream market has declined, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate has declined due to the falling price of lithium carbonate. In addition, the precursor iron phosphate enterprises generally have a large inventory, and the price fluctuates violently and continues to decline. The recovery of market demand was also less than expected, and the short-term procurement demand was low.

The lithium carbonate analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current lithium carbonate production is gradually rising, the downstream demand is weak, and the power end market still has no obvious signs of recovery. Considering the actual inventory digestion, it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price downturn will continue to fluctuate downward.

On February 14, the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 14, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11000 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from 11325 yuan/ton of aluminum fluoride on February 1; It is temporarily stable compared with 11000 yuan/ton on February 13. The cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials continued to decline, and the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable this week.

Analysis points

As of February 14, the price of fluorite was 3050 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the price of 3156.25 yuan/ton on February 1, down 2.40% from the price of 3125 yuan/ton on February 13; As of February 14, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from 10000 yuan/ton on February 1; The price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable compared with 9828.57 yuan/ton on February 13. This week, the raw material fluorite fell sharply, the price of hydrofluoric acid was weak and temporarily stable, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Later forecast

The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, and the cost of aluminum fluoride fell. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The domestic cobalt price fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 13, the cobalt price was 289500 yuan/ton, down 2.13% from 295800 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend; The cobalt price fell by 2.26% from 296200 yuan/ton on February 1. The demand of cobalt market is weak, the international cobalt price falls, and the domestic cobalt price falls in shock.

MB cobalt price fluctuated and fell

From the statistical table of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price fell in shock this week, and the international cobalt market fell, but the decline slowed down. The domestic cobalt market is still bearish, and the domestic cobalt price is under great pressure.

Sales of new energy vehicles declined in January

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association on the 10th, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis and 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis. According to the data released by the Passenger Transport Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 389000 in January, down 7.3% year-on-year and 48.2% month-on-month. In January, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 332000, down 6.3% year-on-year and 48.3% month-on-month. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both declined on a month-on-month basis, the demand for cobalt market declined, and the pressure on cobalt price decline increased.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the Business News Agency, believes that the international cobalt price has fallen in shock, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined. The domestic cobalt market demand is less than expected, and the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt price has increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is still optimistic, the demand growth of cobalt market is still expected, and the market volatility of cobalt market is expected to stabilize.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the average price in the domestic market was 21933.33 yuan/ton as of September, down 0.30% from last week. This week, the domestic magnesium ingot market was weak and stable, the market trading continued to be stalemate, the manufacturers were in a strong mood of stabilization, and the quotations were mostly firm, but the actual high price transaction in the market was not ideal, and the supply and demand sides still showed a cautious game.

Mentality

There are some differences in the mentality of the magnesium ingot market. Factories without inventory pressure still maintain the attitude of high prices, and the willingness to ship at low prices is not high; Some magnesium plants have weakened their support for the cost of magnesium ingots due to the lower price of raw materials, and the price has moved down.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, which is down 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. As the futures price fell below the 8000 yuan/ton threshold, the latest bidding price of some steel mills was pushed down, resulting in insufficient market confidence, and the quotations of most ferrosilicon manufacturers fell.

The price of blue charcoal in Fugu market remains weak and stable, and some enterprises are expected to reduce the price recently. In Fugu market, the current low price of medium materials is 1450-1550 yuan/ton, the high price is 1660-1700 yuan/ton, the low price of small materials is 1410-1530 yuan/ton, the high price is 1660-1700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coke surface is 1050-1200 yuan/ton, all of which include tax in cash.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the market recovered slowly after the Lantern Festival and the transaction was not ideal. The price of raw materials, such as blue coke and ferrosilicon, has fallen slightly, and the actual transaction and negotiation space of magnesium market is large. Only some enterprises are not willing to ship at a low price due to cost factors, and it is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will run weakly and steadily in the short term.

DOP prices fell slightly on February 9

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 9, the price of DOP was 10180 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from 10200 yuan/ton on February 8 of the previous trading day. The price of raw materials fell, the downstream procurement was poor, and the price of DOP fell.

Analysis points

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, on February 9, the price of isooctanol dropped sharply by 1.99% to 9866.67 yuan/ton; The price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 0.15% to 8237.50 yuan/ton, the price of DOP raw materials dropped and the cost of DOP dropped. PVC prices fluctuated and fell, downstream procurement was poor, and the demand for plasticizers was weak.

Aftermarket expectation

The demand for plasticizer DOP is weak due to the decline of cost, and the pressure on the decline of plasticizer DOP is increased. It is expected that DOP will fall in the future.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 7, the DBP price was 9587.50 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the DBP price of 9675 yuan/ton on January 29; Compared with the DBP price of 9775 yuan/ton on February 1, the drop was 1.92%. The raw material price fell and the demand remained weak. The DBP price rose first and then fell this week.

DBP raw material prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 7, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8250 yuan/ton, up 2.17% from the price of 8075 yuan/ton on January 29. The stock replenishment before the holiday was poor, the price of ortho benzene rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride was general, the market of phthalic anhydride was stagnant, and the downward pressure of DBP weakened and the upward momentum remained.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 7, the price of n-butanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of n-butanol of 7833.33 yuan/ton on January 29, and decreased by 2.08% compared with the price of 8000 yuan/ton on February 1. The stock replenishment after the holiday was poor, the demand for n-butanol was weak, the price of n-butanol rose first and then fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the downward pressure on DBP increased in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DBP data analysts, the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material, rose slightly this week, while the price of n-butanol fell sharply, and the cost of DBP raw material fell; Demand is weak, and the downward pressure on DBP is increasing. In the future, the demand for plasticizer is weak due to the decrease of plasticizer cost, and the DBP price is expected to fall in shock.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (February 6): 10433.33 yuan/ton

The ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly on February 6, 2.19% lower than that of February 3, and 13.54% lower than that of the same period last year. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened.

Recently, the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fall slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 10000 yuan/ton.

Market overview: According to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, as of February 2, 2023, the market reference price of diethylene glycol was 5460 yuan/ton, down 223.33 yuan/ton or 3.93% compared with the price of January 28, 2023 (5683.33 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business agency that the overall domestic diethylene glycol market fell sharply this week. At present, the market price in East China is 5200 yuan/ton, and that in South China is 5450 yuan/ton. The US crude oil inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks, the supply of marine oil in a European country has increased, the export is strong, and the main central bank is raising interest rates soon ▪ With the pressure on oil prices, OPEC+maintained its output policy unchanged, the international oil price fell as a whole, and the cost-side support weakened. In terms of supply, the port shipment is low, the inventory is high, and the market supply is not short. As of January 30, 2023, the inventory of East China port is about 39300 tons, an increase of 5800 tons compared with last week, an increase of 67.23%; From the perspective of demand, this week is the first trading week after the return of the Spring Festival holiday. Most downstream factories have not restarted, the demand recovery is slow, the purchase of gas is insufficient, the quantity of goods taken downstream is poor, the market is sporadic, and the market mentality is cautious. In general, the support at the cost side is weak, the inventory at the supply side is high, and the demand side has no positive support for the time being, so the market price of diethylene glycol continues to decline significantly after the holiday.

At present, the crude oil market is dominated by the supply side. It is expected that the international crude oil price will fluctuate and fall next week, and the support at the cost side will still be weak. The superimposed market supply will not be short, the inventory will be high, and the supply side will be affected by the supply side. However, from the demand side, after the Lantern Festival next week, downstream factories will start in succession, and those that have already started will also gradually increase the load. The resumption mode after the year will be officially opened, and the downstream demand will gradually increase. In general, The support at the cost side is insufficient, and the supply side is affected by negative effects, but the demand may gradually recover. The diethylene glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the current domestic diethylene glycol market is basically guided by the change in demand, and it is expected that the price of the diethylene glycol market will fluctuate slightly next Tuesday.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell slightly in January, from 240400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 229616.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline was 4.49%, up 35.23% year on year.

Macroscopically, the US CPI data continued to decline, the pace of interest rate increase slowed and the expectation was strengthened, the global liquidity environment was marginally improved, and China’s economic outlook was optimistic to drive the recovery of domestic demand.

In terms of supply: in terms of nickel ore, the Philippine rainy season continues to disturb the supply, and the ore price is relatively firm; In terms of ferronickel, the market supply and demand are weak, and the iron price is running smoothly. However, on the news, Indonesia will restrict the construction of nickel smelters and guide the development of new plants to high-value-added products. However, it has not been disclosed whether it will affect the ferronickel plants with existing construction plans.

Demand: stainless steel inventory has reached a new high. The market expects that the peak season after the holiday will have a positive effect on the stock removal. The downstream prospect is optimistic and the nickel price is positive. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether stainless steel can really usher in the peak season.

To sum up: domestic policies are favorable frequently, the market has strong expectations for future economic recovery, and the demand outlook has been boosted. The production resumed after the holiday, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate and strengthen in February.

Price trend

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the average price of activated carbon at the beginning of 2022 was 9866 yuan/ton, and the average price of activated carbon at the end of 2022 was 10766 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.12%.

quotations analysis

Activated carbon

The annual price of activated carbon in 2022 is mainly in the upward trend of shock. According to the chart of the rise and fall of the month of 2022, it can be seen that the largest increase in the year is in March, with an increase of 1.99%. The largest decline in the year was in October, with a decline of 1.23%.

K-column diagram of activated carbon month

Phase I

From January to July, the price of domestic activated carbon rose slightly, and the ex-factory price of activated carbon for water purification of coconut shell in East China was between 9500-12000 yuan/ton; Due to the improvement of market logistics and transportation restrictions, most dealers are optimistic, and some terminal merchants enter the market to replenish the goods, and the market quotation is firm.

Phase II

From August to December, the domestic activated carbon market was light, most of the manufacturers’ quotations were stable, and some of them were fine-tuned. The dealers were mainly wait-and-see, the terminal demand orders were limited, the terminal replenishment sentiment was general, and the market was mainly filled by distributors.

Analysis of factors affecting the price of activated carbon – import and export data

In the first half of 2022, Japan accounted for the largest proportion of China’s activated carbon imports, with the import amount of 22.52 million US dollars, followed by the United States, with the import amount of 21.52 million US dollars. In the first half of 2022, compared with the whole year of 2021, Japan’s import pattern, although accounting for the largest proportion, has declined compared with the previous year, and the United States has also dropped from 27% in 2021 to 23% in the first half of 2022.

According to China’s customs data, in the first half of 2022, China’s active carbon imports were mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Beijing Province, Guangdong Province and other places, with the import amount of US $35.64 million, US $26.31 million, US $8.5 million and US $9.98 million respectively.

In the first half of 2022, China’s active carbon export regions are mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Fujian, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and other places, with export amounts of 87.8 million US dollars, 33.71 million US dollars, 30.33 million US dollars, 18.99 million US dollars and 17.88 million US dollars respectively.

Aftermarket forecast

Market output: In 2022, the global market output of activated carbon will increase to about 3.65 million tons, and the market growth rate will reach about 10.27%.

Demand side: activated carbon is a sharp tool for environmental protection. In recent years, with the intensification of industrial pollution in China and the rapid increase of domestic demand for activated carbon, China has become one of the main consumption areas of activated carbon in the world, and is the second largest active carbon consumer in the world after the United States.

To sum up, with the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, the requirements for food and drinking water and other environments are also continuously increasing, so the market demand for activated carbon is gradually expanding, and the industry capacity is rapidly increasing. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will be mainly in a strong trend in 2023.