1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell slightly in January, from 240400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 229616.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline was 4.49%, up 35.23% year on year.

Macroscopically, the US CPI data continued to decline, the pace of interest rate increase slowed and the expectation was strengthened, the global liquidity environment was marginally improved, and China’s economic outlook was optimistic to drive the recovery of domestic demand.

In terms of supply: in terms of nickel ore, the Philippine rainy season continues to disturb the supply, and the ore price is relatively firm; In terms of ferronickel, the market supply and demand are weak, and the iron price is running smoothly. However, on the news, Indonesia will restrict the construction of nickel smelters and guide the development of new plants to high-value-added products. However, it has not been disclosed whether it will affect the ferronickel plants with existing construction plans.

Demand: stainless steel inventory has reached a new high. The market expects that the peak season after the holiday will have a positive effect on the stock removal. The downstream prospect is optimistic and the nickel price is positive. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether stainless steel can really usher in the peak season.

To sum up: domestic policies are favorable frequently, the market has strong expectations for future economic recovery, and the demand outlook has been boosted. The production resumed after the holiday, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate and strengthen in February.