Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2799.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2835.62 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.31%, up 5.96% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on March 5 was 131.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 13.42% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 137.21% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, and urea supply was normal

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6082.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5950.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.17%, down 19.00% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is low, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1480 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4506.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.48%, up 0.08% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fell slightly, and support for urea prices weakened. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8275.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.10%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has gradually followed up, and industrial demand has increased. The use of fertilizer for spring ploughing is gradually followed up, and the agricultural demand is good. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is general. The start of plate and melamine enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly needed. From the perspective of supply, some gas-head enterprises have started to resume production. The daily output of urea is about 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is relatively sufficient.

Rising after a small shock

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of March. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea are low and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand increased. Some gas-head enterprises began to resume production, and the daily output of urea was about 16-17 million tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.