According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend since March. As of March 9, the average market price in East China was 5872 yuan/ton, up 4.92% from the beginning of the month and down 10.42% year on year.

From the perspective of PTA supply side, there are many PTA units under maintenance and production reduction at present, among which, 325 thousand tons of Luoyang Petrochemical were overhauled on March 3, and 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical were overhauled on March 6. The industry started about 72%, and PTA was slightly destocked. Therefore, in terms of supply and demand, PTA is expected to go out of stock in April, supporting the strength of PTA prices.

However, the negative expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase led to the continuous decline of the international crude oil price, which had a certain inhibition on the rise of PTA. As of March 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.72/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.59/barrel.

In the downstream, polyester starts remain at a high level of more than 80%, and domestic orders in spring and summer have increased. In the context of a moderate recovery in demand, although there is no significant increase, it can maintain at a high level of rigid demand. However, foreign trade orders are still not improving. The factory feedback that new orders are insufficient, and the final foreign trade orders of weaving factories shrink.

Some PTA units are planned to increase the load next week, and the new production capacity of 2.5 million tons of PTA in Guangdong may be tested. At the same time, the downstream market still faces insufficient demand and uncertain foreign trade prospects. Analysts of Business Agency believe that the PTA market price may weaken due to shocks.