According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8308.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 7716.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.12%. The price fell 0.32% year on year.

styrene

The styrene market price fell in November. It can be seen from the figure above that the price of styrene dropped more than the increase in the past month. The main reason for the decline was that the focus of the pure benzene market continued to move down, and the cost support was poor. Tianjin Dagu styrene plant was planned to restart, domestic styrene supply increased simultaneously, styrene inventory pressure was high, and it was difficult to support the styrene market. The spot price of styrene continued to decline. At present, export orders promote the decline of port inventory. In December, Xinpu Chemical shut down. Sinochem Quanzhou’s annual production capacity of 450,000 tons and Zhenhai Li’ande’s annual production capacity of 620,000 tons of styrene are planned to shut down. The domestic supply is expected to decline, which is good for the styrene market.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fell sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7200-7500 yuan/ton (the average price is 7384 yuan/ton); The price at the end of the month was 6700-6850 yuan/ton (the average price was 6759 yuan/ton), down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year. This month, the pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell in November. At present, the trend of PS (polystyrene) market is weak, the trading and investment atmosphere is difficult to improve, the shipping rhythm of merchants is slow, and the shipping pressure of merchants is not reduced. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 9400-10950 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 10200-11400 yuan/ton.

In November, the EPS market declined. At the beginning of this month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11025 yuan/ton, and at the end of this month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10500 yuan/ton, down 4.76%, up 0.72% compared with the same period of the year. At present, the average operation of EPS devices in China is more than half, down from last week. The demand is still weak, and the buying price is weak. EPS manufacturers are under pressure when shipping, and some devices are operating under low load or temporarily shut down. Downstream buyers are mainly wait-and-see, EPS manufacturers’ shipment is not smooth, the market is pessimistic, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the overall delivery is fair.

In November, the domestic ABS market weakened and prices fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS was 12050 yuan/ton on November 1 and 11950 yuan/ton on November 28, with a range of – 0.83%. In late November, the load of ABS industry was adjusted in a narrow range. At present, the commencement of equipment is generally maintained at more than 90%, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The enterprise was dragged down by the raw material side, and the factory price was lowered. ABS upstream three materials fell together, weakening the support for ABS cost side. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, the weekly output was stable, and the pressure on the supply side remained unchanged. The demand side did not improve, and the seller camp reduced the price and took the goods. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market will continue its narrow range consolidation operation.

Recently, the pure benzene market has declined, and the cost support is not good. However, the styrene factory has expected to reduce production at the beginning of the 12th Five Year Plan, and the styrene market has reached a low level, so the business community expects that the styrene market will increase slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China rose from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.37%. A year-on-year decrease of 47.25%. On December 4, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 43.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 0.37% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price was temporarily stable this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week is 6233.33 yuan/ton. The market price of upstream raw materials was adjusted at a low level, with average cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future market forecast

Neopentyl glycol market trend in the first half of December was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 2, 2022, the market price of diethylene glycol was 6133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with November 28, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 6050 yuan/ton), the price increased by about 83 yuan/ton, or 1.38%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the diethylene glycol market was operating at a high level with strong shocks. During the week, prices rose and fell. Some diethylene glycol suppliers raised the delivery price of diethylene glycol by 50-200 yuan/ton, while some suppliers adjusted the delivery price by 50-100 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the diethylene glycol (DEG) quotation fell briefly due to the impact of the terminal shipment on the market mentality. However, the recent international crude oil futures have risen sharply, with strong support on the cost side. With the limited arrival of imported ships, the port inventory remains low and volatile, and the supply is expected to remain tight. In the second half of the week, the DEG quotation rebounded. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly. The diethylene glycol price trend is dominated by high shocks, and the market mentality is relatively mild. As of December 2, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 6050-6300 yuan/ton.

At present, the limited arrival of diethylene glycol at the port and the low stock fluctuated, but the downstream demand was unstable, and the terminal shipment still affected the market mentality. The diethylene glycol data engineer of the business community believed that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market was adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the header shipment and the subsequent arrival at the port.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in November, and the market price was sorted up. As of November 30, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China was 1410.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.32% compared with the average ex factory price of 1266.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the sulfur market in the East China market was sorted up. Affected by public health at the beginning of the month, transportation was limited, manufacturers’ shipments were blocked, and some quotations were lowered. However, with the opening of the phosphate fertilizer winter storage market, the export market improved, the downstream demand for sulfur increased, the port sulfur price rose, and the market atmosphere was bullish, driving the domestic refinery price upward. Later, downstream demand was stable, refinery shipments were smooth, and the sulfur market continued to rise.

The downstream sulphuric acid market declined weakly in November. At the beginning of the month, the market price of sulphuric acid was 414.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, 321.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 22.30% in the month. In November, domestic sulphuric acid continued to decline. Affected by public health events, the enterprise’s shipment was not smooth, and the inventory pressure increased. In addition, the market was hit by low price goods. The market was bearish, and the trend of sulphuric acid declined.

The market of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply in November. This month, the start of ammonium phosphate enterprises was at a low level. There were few goods on the market, and the supply side was tight. The demand for winter storage market in the downstream was followed up, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in the downstream was increased. With the simultaneous good of supply and demand, the market of monoammonium phosphate rose. As of November 30, the average price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3450 yuan/ton, which was 16.95% higher than the average price of 2950 yuan/ton on November 1.

In the future market forecast, the sulfur analysts of the business community believe that the winter storage market of phosphate fertilizer is currently going on, and the downstream demand is increasing, so the sulfur support is good. At the same time, the port market price is high, which will boost the domestic sulfur market. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will rise mainly, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.

441 # silicon price trend

In November, the market price of metal silicon maintained a downward trend. As of the 29th, the national silicon metal quotation was 20,250 yuan/ton, down 5.68% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price remained weak and stable, the supply and demand sides fell into a stalemate game, and the upstream and downstream were mostly wait-and-see. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang affected production and transportation, hydropower in Southwest China rose, costs rose, market sentiment was different, and silicon prices were deadlocked. At the end of this month, Xinjiang’s production is expected to improve, and the weak demand makes it difficult to follow up, which depresses the price decline.

Market analysis

Supply side

At the end of this month, Sichuan entered a dry season, with prices continuing to fall but power costs rising, some manufacturers began to cut production. The management and control status in Xinjiang has improved. Large factories have started to resume production, and the production increase is expected to be strong in the short term. The overall operating rate is still at a high level.

Inventory

As of November 25, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 117000 tons, and the overall social inventory decreased by 4000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 46.3%. Port inventories declined, but remained high.

Demand side

The demand side remained sluggish, organic silicon consumption did not improve, and large factories stopped production for maintenance. The small and medium-sized aluminum alloy plants were forced to stop production because of the upside down of their profits, while the large plants only maintained their procurement needs. The orders of polysilicon enterprises are basically finalized, which makes it difficult to maintain the upward price of metal silicon. Downstream silicon wafer battery enterprises are slow in shipping, resulting in overstock of inventory and loose price of polysilicon.

Future market forecast

The demand side organic silicon, aluminum alloy and polysilicon have no obvious changes. The output at the supply side remains high, and the price of silicon metal may remain volatile and weak in the short term. However, due to the rising cost, the southern manufacturers are obviously looking forward to the rise, which does not rule out the possibility that the silicon price may rebound at the bottom in the future.

According to the data from the business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell this week. As of November 27, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 70000.00 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from the price of 7120.00 yuan/ton on November 21, and down 9.68% from the same period last month.

On November 27, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 65.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.38% from the highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 28.84% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Most domestic benzol maleic anhydride markets were shut down this week. This week, the main factories of n-butane oxidation method had sufficient supply, and the downstream resin procurement was cautious, with limited turnover. As of the 27th day, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 6300 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 6400 yuan/ton, and that in Shanxi and Hebei was about 6900 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, pure benzene fell this week, with an average price of 6767.17 yuan/ton on November 27 and 6992.17 yuan/ton on November 21, down 3.22%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell this week, at 6916.67 yuan/ton on November 27, and 6966.67 yuan/ton on November 21, down 0.72%. As for n-butane, as of November 20, the price in Shandong was 5000 yuan/ton.

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the Business Club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is suffering from serious losses at present, the factory is shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation supply is less; This week, the main maleic anhydride plants had sufficient supply, but Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturers began to close the offer and wait, while Shandong manufacturers’ production fell, and the price had an upward trend at the weekend. Maleic anhydride market is expected to rise in the near future.

This week (11.21-25), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the statistics of the business community, the decline this week was 0.73%, mainly due to the low level of raw acetic acid, and some manufacturers lowered their prices, especially the main factories in Shandong, which changed from auction to retail. In the past two weeks, the price fell continuously, which depressed market confidence, and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the market price of ethyl acetate was between 6300-6500 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the prices of acetic acid and ethyl acetate slightly deviated this week. Due to the heavy drop of acetic acid last week (nearly 4%), acetic acid had the reason to make up for the drop. This week, domestic acetic acid stopped falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid rebounded slightly by 0.38% this week, but the price is still hovering at a low level. The main reason was that the supply was slightly tightened, the acetic acid plant of Shanghai Huayi stopped due to failure, and the export of some regions increased, while the domestic supply declined for a short time. However, the rebound amplitude is small, and the downturn in downstream demand is difficult to support a strong price rise, especially in North China, Northwest China and other regions where demand is weak, and it is difficult to follow up the late rise.

From the above figure, the price trend comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they are highly correlated, and the trend is basically the same in the past three months. However, the opening of acetic acid curve has expanded in the last week and Tuesday, and the acetic acid curve has slightly risen, but the ethyl acetate curve is still in the process of downward exploration.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate this week was stable, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is about 60%. Major factories in Shandong and Jiangsu maintained normal operation. This week, some manufacturers generally continued the trend of price reduction last week, while most manufacturers reduced their ex factory prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and inventory, which depressed the market confidence. Moreover, the market expectation has turned weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, the downstream procurement remained just in demand, and the purchase intention of dealers and downstream factories was weak in the late ten days. The main factories in Shandong changed from auction to retail, and the deal was not ideal. Downstream orders contracted, resulting in a significant slowdown in the speed of goods delivery. The number of transactions in the market is relatively small, and most transactions are at low prices.

In the future market, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believed that the raw material acetic acid had stopped falling at present, but the benefits were not much. It was unlikely that it would continue to rebound in the later period, and the cost could not be supported. In addition, the supply and demand would not improve too much, so it was expected that the short-term weakness of acetic acid would not change, and the price would fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1420 yuan/ton on November 18, and 1450 yuan/ton on November 24. The price of ammonium sulfate rose by 2.11% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s ammonium sulfate market is the main actor. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased, the demand for winter storage procurement increased, the on-site turnover was fair, and the export demand continued to follow up. The operating rate of coking plant and caprolactam plant decreased slightly, and the supply of ammonium sulfate in the plant decreased. As of November 24, the main factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was about 1415 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1420 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1400-1530 yuan/ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was in a strong bullish atmosphere, and most enterprises began to stop quoting. Due to the continuous strengthening of the raw material market in the near future, the pressure on the cost of compound fertilizer has increased, and the manufacturer has raised the price accordingly. Under the influence of the raw material boost, the domestic compound fertilizer market is running well.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that at present, the market of ammonium sulfate is the main actor. The supply of ammonium sulfate on the market is reduced, the trading is increased, and the manufacturers are mainly paying high prices. Under the condition of stable demand, the price of ammonium sulfate is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic fluorite price will rise sharply in 2022, with an average price of 2855.56 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At present, the average domestic fluorite price is 3200 yuan/ton, up 12.06%. It can be clearly seen from the fluorite price trend chart that the highest price of fluorite in 2022 will appear at the end of the year, with the highest price of 3200 yuan/ton. The lowest price of fluorite will appear at the beginning of April, with the lowest price of 2547.22 yuan/ton and the maximum amplitude of 25.63%. On the whole, fluorite will rise.

It can be seen from the K column chart of the monthly fluorite price in 2022 that the annual fluorite market price rose more than fell, and the annual price trend was divided into two stages. The first stage was the low price from the beginning of the year to March, and the domestic fluorite market price fell back; The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of April. The price trend of fluorite continues to rise. The specific trend is as follows:

In the first stage, from the beginning of 2022 to the end of March, the price trend of the domestic fluorite market declined. The price at the beginning of the year was 2855.56 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of March was 2547.22 yuan/ton. The price trend declined by 10.80%. At the beginning of the year, due to the epidemic situation, many businesses in the south stopped production, there were few fluorite transactions, and the price trend did not change much. In the early March, the parking devices continued to operate, and the on-site supply increased significantly. The shipments of businesses in the market were general. The operating rate of fluorite devices in the north rose, the on-site transactions were not positive, and the fluorite price trend declined.

The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of April, when fluorite prices rose unilaterally. The price of domestic fluorite rose from 2547.22 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.63%. The domestic price of fluorite keeps rising, and the advantages in the stage are superimposed. In the second half of the year, the mine starts are low, and the supply of raw materials is very tight. As a result, the price of fluorite remains high. In addition, the export of fluorite has increased significantly, and new demand continues to develop, which is good for support. The fluorite market has gone up all the way.

To sum up, the fluorite market trend will rise in 2022. The main positive factors are as follows:

First: The supply of fluorite raw ore is tight. The reserves of fluorite in China account for 13.1% of the world’s total, while the output accounts for 62.8%. In recent years, the basic reserves of fluorite resources identified in China tend to be stable. Backward mines in China will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient starting of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited starting of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, serious epidemic in some regions, difficult transportation of fluorite, very tight supply of fluorite, and rising fluorite prices.

Second, the export volume of fluorite increased significantly. In the second half of the year, overseas mines in Canada and Mexico stopped production, overseas fluorine chemical giants were generally out of stock, and domestic acid grade fluorite received more and more inquiries from international buyers, which aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. From January to September 2022, China’s total export of fluorite with calcium fluoride content ≤ 97% is about 174500 tons, an increase of 60.12% over the same period last year; The total export volume of fluorite with calcium fluoride content>97% in China is about 172100 tons, up 397.32% over the same period last year. The export volume of fluorite has increased significantly, supporting the higher price.

Third: rapid development of new demands. In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductors and other fields, the outlook of fluorite industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Fluorite, as a raw material, led the rise in the fluorine chemical sector. The price changes of various products in the fluorine chemical sector in 2022 are as follows:

It can be clearly seen from the product price change chart that the trend of the fluorite industry chain will be differentiated in 2022, and the refrigerant industry will start to slow down. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the quota of three generations of refrigerants, the history of competition for the refrigerant industry quota will soon end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industry chain.

Future forecast: Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst from the business community, believes that the price of fluorite will rise in 2022. From the perspective of the supply of fluorite market, the mining difficulties of domestic mines will remain unabated, some domestic mines will continue to be eliminated, and the development speed of new mines will be slower than the elimination speed. The shortage of raw fluorite ore supply will be the normal state in the later period. Strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials continue to develop, and the increase in demand for photovoltaic and graphite electrodes has brought some positive support to the fluorite market in the later period. However, with the gradual resumption of overseas mines, the export of fluorite will be subject to certain restrictions, and the overall development of the fluorite industry is still optimistic. In 2023, the highest price of the fluorite market will reach 3500 yuan/ton, and the lowest price will also be about 2700 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 22, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16050.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the same period last week, and the overall market price of PMMA was stable. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintains a balance of 16100 yuan/overall market supply and demand, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 16050.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was mainly stable. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16100 yuan/ton. The price of PMMA was mainly stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand. Downstream just needs to purchase. The manufacturers give up profits and take orders. The latest enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 15600 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On November 21, the rubber and plastic index was 673 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 36.51% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 27.46% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from the business community believe that in the short term, PMMA is mainly stable.