441 # silicon price trend

In November, the market price of metal silicon maintained a downward trend. As of the 29th, the national silicon metal quotation was 20,250 yuan/ton, down 5.68% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price remained weak and stable, the supply and demand sides fell into a stalemate game, and the upstream and downstream were mostly wait-and-see. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang affected production and transportation, hydropower in Southwest China rose, costs rose, market sentiment was different, and silicon prices were deadlocked. At the end of this month, Xinjiang’s production is expected to improve, and the weak demand makes it difficult to follow up, which depresses the price decline.

Market analysis

Supply side

At the end of this month, Sichuan entered a dry season, with prices continuing to fall but power costs rising, some manufacturers began to cut production. The management and control status in Xinjiang has improved. Large factories have started to resume production, and the production increase is expected to be strong in the short term. The overall operating rate is still at a high level.

Inventory

As of November 25, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 117000 tons, and the overall social inventory decreased by 4000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 46.3%. Port inventories declined, but remained high.

Demand side

The demand side remained sluggish, organic silicon consumption did not improve, and large factories stopped production for maintenance. The small and medium-sized aluminum alloy plants were forced to stop production because of the upside down of their profits, while the large plants only maintained their procurement needs. The orders of polysilicon enterprises are basically finalized, which makes it difficult to maintain the upward price of metal silicon. Downstream silicon wafer battery enterprises are slow in shipping, resulting in overstock of inventory and loose price of polysilicon.

Future market forecast

The demand side organic silicon, aluminum alloy and polysilicon have no obvious changes. The output at the supply side remains high, and the price of silicon metal may remain volatile and weak in the short term. However, due to the rising cost, the southern manufacturers are obviously looking forward to the rise, which does not rule out the possibility that the silicon price may rebound at the bottom in the future.