1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price soared on the 7th, and the spot price was reported as 211166.67 yuan / ton, up 10.45% from the previous trading day and 71.4% year-on-year. Shanghai nickel 2204 contract closed the daily limit, closing at 210950 yuan / ton, up 12%.

Macroscopically, it is mainly due to the continuation of the geographical influence of Russia and Ukraine, and the market is also constantly considering the impact of supply side disturbance under Western sanctions on Russian trade. Basically, on the supply side, the geography of Russia and Ukraine, whether in Europe or domestic nickel supply, has brought some uncertainty. In addition, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, the impact of nickel ore price climbing has begun to appear, and the refinery production scheduling plan is not large. On the demand side, the rapid rise of prices reduces the enthusiasm of short-term downstream procurement and weakens the transaction. However, when the supply problem is difficult to solve in the short term, the downstream may show passive procurement. The sales performance of new energy vehicles is still bright, and the prospect of power battery demand is optimistic. Nickel prices are expected to rise in the short term.

The price of DBP fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP fluctuated and rose this week, and the overall DBP market rose. As of March 4, the price of DBP was 11266.67 yuan / ton, up 5.30% from 10700.00 yuan / ton on February 28 at the beginning of the week. The cost of DBP rose this week and the overall DBP market recovered.

The price of butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week, and the market of n-butanol rose. On March 4, the price of n-butanol was 10500.00 yuan / ton, up 2.27% from 10266.67 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. This week, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fluctuated and rose. In the future, the market of n-butanol rose, the cost of DBP rose, the downward pressure of DBP market weakened, and the upward momentum was large.

Phthalic anhydride prices rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride rose this week. As of March 4, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8475 yuan / ton, up 5.12% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, the price of DBP raw materials rose, and the cost support increased.

The trend of PVC stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market rebounded and rose. As of March 4, the price of PVC was 8750 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton or 3.43% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of PVC rose this week, and the rigid demand for PVC increased; DBP market is more favorable.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine intensified last week, the price of crude oil soared, the price of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride in the chemical sector rose, the price of raw materials rose, the cost of plasticizer DBP rose, and the price of DBP rose. In the future, the downstream demand is stable, the price of raw materials fluctuates and rises, and the price of DBP fluctuates and rises in the future.

The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

The surge in crude oil prices has driven commodity prices upward as a whole, and ethylene prices have also risen steadily. At present, the latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1250 US dollars / ton, up 20 US dollars / ton compared with the price on the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 1250 US dollars / ton, an increase of 50 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day. The quotation of ethylene in Luxi Chemical today was 8500 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The terminal is weak, the transaction is light, the shipment mentality is mainly, the negotiation focus is low, and the downstream are waiting for the future trend of ethylene oxide. In recent days, ethylene glycol, a co production product, has increased significantly due to the unilateral pull of crude oil, but the oversupply and weak demand side are still holding back.

Forecast: Despite the serious polarization between upstream and downstream long and short positions of ethylene oxide, the cost side is strongly driven, the production is under pressure, and the center of gravity still moves upward.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (March 2): 10466 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on March 2, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong operated smoothly as a whole. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 10466 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 2nd, the downstream of n-butanol just needed to be purchased, and the trading atmosphere on the floor was normal. The domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was consolidated and operated. The ex factory price of n-butanol was around 10300-10500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand of n-butanol is mainly just for purchase, and the wait-and-see mood is still on the floor. The n-butanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong will mainly be adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

Domestic cobalt price rose on March 1

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose on March 1, and the cobalt market picked up. On March 1, the price of cobalt was 547500 yuan / ton, up 0.18% from 546500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market recovered, and the cobalt price fluctuated and rose.

Key points of analysis

The increase of international cobalt price is lower than that of domestic cobalt price, and the price difference at home and abroad is reduced; The consumption growth of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, the demand growth of cobalt market exceeded expectations, the output of ternary batteries increased sharply year-on-year, the demand of cobalt market was strong, and the rising power of cobalt market was large. Cobalt prices rose too fast in February, and the risk of future decline remains.

Future forecast

The demand exceeded the expectation, the cobalt price rose sharply, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices decreased, the cobalt price rose too fast, and the risk of decline still exists. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic nitrile rubber was 23750 yuan / ton on the 28th, which was stable compared with the previous day. After the festival, the construction in the downstream of nitrile was basically stable, the demand side was mainly just demand, and the market offer of merchants fluctuated slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 28, the mainstream of domestic Lanhua nitrile n41e market reported 22800 yuan / ton; 3305e mainstream newspaper 23000 yuan / ton; 3308e mainstream newspaper: 23300 yuan / ton; Shunze 3355 mainstream reported 22800 yuan / ton; Nandi nitrile 1052 mainstream reported around 24700 yuan / ton. The raw material butadiene rose after the festival, and the price of acrylonitrile rebounded slightly after falling, with support from the cost side.

Future forecast: after the festival, the demand for nitrile rubber is mainly just demand, and the pressure on the supply side is small. If the cost side continues to rise in the later stage, nitrile rubber will rise steadily.

The mainstream ex factory price of urea rose first and then fell this month: the quotation first rose from 2644.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 2700.00 yuan / ton on February 11, up 56 yuan / ton, up 2.12%, and then fell to 2662.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.41%, up 21.55% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. There is still a downward trend at the end of the month.

On February 24, the urea commodity index was 123.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.29% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 122.86% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In February, the price of urea rose slightly, with the highest decline of 1.33% in a single week.

The upstream support weakened, the supply of chemical fertilizer remained stable, and the price of urea fell

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly as a whole this month: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 3866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7652.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 97.90%, an increase of 160.86% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of thermal coal fell sharply this month. The quotation fell from 1167.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 22.91%, up 54.44% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and rose. The quotation increased from 4443.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4503.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 34.43% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose first and then fell this month. The quotation increased from 10433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 18.21%.

。 From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is wait-and-see, and industrial demand is enhanced. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer use has entered the peak season, but the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. The price of urea has fallen slightly recently. Affected by the rise or fall of buying, dealers are not active in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 150000 tons, and the supply is sufficient.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream demand is enhanced, and the supply and price of urea are mainly guaranteed

In the middle and early days of March, the urea market may fluctuate slightly and fall, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the recent upstream cost support is general, the downstream demand increases, the urea supply is sufficient, the supply of chemical fertilizer is mainly guaranteed and the price is stable, and the urea fluctuates slightly in the future.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (February 24): 12450 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber was 12450 yuan / ton on Thursday, a slight decrease of 0.07% compared with the previous day. The start-up of styrene butadiene rubber plant decreased slightly, but the overall supply was sufficient; After the festival, the price of international crude oil and raw material butadiene / styrene rebounded, with cost support; On Thursday, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was stable, dominated by small market transactions, the traders’ offer was slightly adjusted, and the high styrene butadiene price was reduced. According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream offer in the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market was around 12200 ~ 12700 yuan / ton on the 24th.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the raw material butadiene is higher than that before the festival, on the other hand, the growth rate of downstream operation after the festival is not ideal, coupled with the sharp fluctuation of international crude oil, the price of styrene butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate widely.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (February 23): 13800 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of February 23, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13800 yuan / ton, down 0.5% from the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable. The ex factory price of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13700 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased; After the festival, the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, supported by the cost side. However, the downstream demand is weak, the offer of merchants is slightly reduced by 50 ~ 100 yuan / ton, and there are 13250 ~ 13950 yuan / ton in Qilu, Dushanzi and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China.

Future forecast: the international crude oil fluctuates widely and the price and cost of raw butadiene support, but the downstream demand is weak at present. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price February 22: 34500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market moved upward on February 22. The overall market trading situation is acceptable, and the spot of yellow phosphorus market is tight. There are many downstream inquiries, and enterprises are reluctant to sell. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the transaction price of new orders is higher.

The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be strong in the short term.