According to the data monitored by the business society, the market trend of PP fell in mid February, and the spot prices of various brands decreased by a narrow margin. As of February 18, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 0.95% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the decline in the domestic propylene market narrowed this week, the upstream crude oil fluctuated strongly, and the cost side support was acceptable. At the weekend, the demand for resumption of work in the downstream basically returned to normal, the cost and demand remained stable as a whole, and the propylene market stabilized and consolidated. The propylene market is expected to further push up slightly.
The price of upstream propylene fell, while that of dynamic coal continued to fall this week. The international crude oil was generally strong and the PP cost support was general. In terms of supply, the supply of PP was abundant this week, and the operating rate of the industry was high and stable. Under the high load of petrochemical plant, the storage position of two barrels of oil depot is on the high side, and the inventory pressure of the middle reaches society also increases. In terms of demand, the resumption of work of terminal enterprises has increased after the Lantern Festival, but there is no large order preparation operation on the whole. The buyer’s mentality is empty, and the demand tends to just need to maintain production, which has a certain drag on the spot price. Merchants hold more goods and have poor confidence in offering, and gradually give up profits.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of February 18, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP also rose. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8433.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 0.40% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 2.68% year-on-year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material have a poor resumption of work, and the demand is also lagging behind. The orders of terminal enterprises have weakened, the upstream and downstream loads of the industrial chain still need to be improved, and the demand transmission will take time. Under the pressure of the continuous accumulation of stock, it is expected that the fiber material market may be under pressure and weaken.
In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose after the festival. As of January 18, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9650 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.76% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recent health events in various countries are still not optimistic. The number of local diagnoses in some regions of China has increased, which has a pull on the spot market of melt blown cloth. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the site is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. After the holiday, the cost side is good, and there is oversupply in some parts of the market. It is expected that the melt blown material may operate weakly in the short term.
Future forecast
PP analysts of business agency believe that: in mid February, the domestic polypropylene market fell, mobile coal continued to fall, while propylene fell but narrowed, the trend of crude oil was strong and volatile, and the cost side support was generally acceptable. The resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, the expansion of demand is poor, and the stock of enterprises and businesses is accumulated. It is expected that the PP market may continue to be dominated by weak operation due to supply pressure in the short term.