According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose sharply, the price trend of domestic PR nd rare earth rose sharply, and the market price of heavy rare earth rose correspondingly. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the bulk commodity price index BPI on July 19 was 1080 points, up 8 points from yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, Compared with the lowest point of 660 on February 3, 2016, it has increased by 63.64%（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the price of domestic rare earth has risen sharply in the near future, and the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have increased in varying degrees, and the trend of the rare earth market has improved. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium all rose. As of July 20, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 585000 yuan / ton; The price of metal neodymium is 715000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 600000 yuan / ton; The price of PR nd alloy is 745000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium is 725000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide was 580000 yuan / ton, and all products rose to varying degrees. In July, the domestic light rare earth market continued to rise, and the market improved.

The domestic rare earth market continues to rise, the inflection point of supply and demand structure is coming, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is increasing, and the profit margin of rare earth industry chain is opening up. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may increase steadily, the supply rigidity is optimized, and the new energy efficiency standards are implemented. The proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances and NdFeB penetration rate will continue to increase, and the demand side is expected to continue to rise. The sales of new energy vehicles are relatively normal, and the demand for rare earth is high. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”), in June, domestic automobile production and sales reached 1.943 million and 2.015 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 4.8% and 5.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.5% and 12.4%. In the near future, the downstream demand is fair, and the market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China is rising, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.575 million yuan / ton as of the 20th; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.515 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.375 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rises sharply, the domestic price of terbium oxide is 7.6 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 9.4 million yuan / ton. The transaction of domestic rare earth market has improved, the leading magnetic material factory has continued to expand, the demand for replenishment has made the domestic heavy rare earth market prices warmer and higher, coupled with Myanmar’s ban on exports, the global supply of rare earth is more concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the market supply of heavy rare earth in the yard is general, the recent downstream procurement is active, and the market price trend is rising.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. In addition, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the video conference on industrial policies and regulations of industry and information system last week that efforts should be made to optimize the development environment of industrial enterprises, accelerate the legislation of telecommunication law, and promote the promulgation of rare earth regulations as soon as possible. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of rare earth management regulations will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by, and promote the development of rare earth industry chain in a virtuous circle; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the order of rare earth supply and support the selling price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is fair. Recently, the downstream demand has increased, and the phenomenon of replenishing the stock is frequent. The price of domestic rare earth market has risen.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, and the continuous demand, coupled with the normal start of domestic rare earth supply, the recent on-site transactions have increased, and the purchase is active. Business analyst Chen Ling expects that the market price of rare earth will maintain a rising trend in the future.

This week (7.12-16), the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly, and the market price rose steadily. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia was 1.50%. After entering July, the price of liquid ammonia remained high. This week, the liquid ammonia manufacturers generally increased. Affected by the maintenance of some domestic manufacturers, the price of urea continued to hover at a high level, and some manufacturers changed to produce urea, which aggravated the current situation of tight supply of liquid ammonia.

This week, the atmosphere of domestic liquid ammonia market is acceptable. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has been rising steadily this week. At present, the amount of ammonia in this region is moderate, and the enterprises are shipping normally. At present, the inventory is normal. For two consecutive days this week, the price of some large factories has been rising, with a cumulative increase of 100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price in this area is 4350-4550 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of urea and driven by profits, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area is still on the low side, and the price is expected to be firm in the near future.

The price of liquid ammonia in Hebei also rose slightly, with a small range, around 50 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of goods source in this area is general. Near the weekend, the quotation of large factories increased slightly, and the inventory of some plants overhauled decreased slightly. The mainstream price in this area is 4300-4400 yuan / ton. At present, the production of liquid ammonia by the manufacturer is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is not big. It is expected that the price will stabilize at a high level in the near future.

In the future, there is little pressure on the supply of domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers. Most of them are tentatively rising. Combined with the impact of the continuous strength of urea and the export boost by printing standard, the price of liquid ammonia has no risk of correction in the short term, and is expected to maintain a high level and narrow range adjustment.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 16, the average price of PMMA was 16875.00 yuan / ton, the overall market maintained stable operation, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintained about 17000 yuan / ton, the negotiation center was stable, and the downstream just needed to purchase, which maintained a stable trend in the short term.

Domestic PMMA is stable and weak, transaction atmosphere is general, downstream just need to purchase, negotiation atmosphere is flat, some manufacturers supply spot is tight, upstream MMA runs smoothly, just need to purchase is the main, actual single talk.

On July 16, the rubber and plastic index was 807 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 23.87% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 52.84% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

PMMA analysts of business news agency believe that: the domestic PMMA market maintains a stable operation and a balance between supply and demand（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Commodity: SC crude oil

Closing price: 439.3 yuan / ton

Analysis: crude oil fell sharply on Thursday, with the main contract 08 closing at 439.3 yuan / ton, down 3.89%. Overnight crude oil fell significantly, with WTI crude oil down more than 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 2%. Affected by this, SC crude oil in the inner wall fell rapidly. At the macro level, the market is wary of the risk aversion of risk assets such as crude oil caused by the Fed’s interest rate increase. Meanwhile, according to media reports, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reached a compromise on production increase policy, and OPEC will launch an agreement on production increase to boost supply, warming the expectation of supply increase; In addition, relevant data show that the demand for gasoline in the United States has fallen sharply. The combination of many bad news dragged down oil prices.

Forecast: the business community believes that there are many risk factors in the oil market in the near future, which aggravates the shock. On the one hand, the market generally pays attention to whether the production restriction policies of OPEC oil producing countries can be implemented consistently; In addition, the epidemic situation is one after another, and the trend is still unclear. Crude oil future trend brings more uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see carefully.

The domestic butadiene market maintained an upward trend, Sinopec’s price increased several times, and middlemen’s offer was firm. Affected by the tight supply, the market momentum continued. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of July 14, the domestic butadiene market price was 10498 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 28.61% and a year-on-year increase of 202.27%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is about 12500-12600 yuan / ton; East China’s self delivery price is about 12300-12400 yuan / ton.

The short-term supply side of butadiene market is difficult to be significantly supplemented, supporting the strong market atmosphere; Although some downstream devices have parking plans, the drag effect of demand side is limited under the support of supply side.

In terms of enterprises, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 T / a butadiene plant has been in stable operation, and the export of this node has been suspended. The 100000 t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu sipang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been in stable operation, with a small amount of products exported, and the listed price has been increased by 1200 yuan / T to 12000 yuan / T. Liaotong chemical’s 120000 T / a butadiene plant is in normal operation, and the main source of goods is downstream pipeline transportation, and there is no online export of goods.

External price: as of July 13, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1395-1405 / T; CFR China closed at US $1345-1355 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1910-1920 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1495-1505 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea 1395-1405 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR China 1345-1355 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam 1910-1920 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1495-1505 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

The shortage of domestic circulating butadiene has not been alleviated, and business expectations are still strong. Business analysts expect the market to rise slightly.

In the second week of July, the domestic magnesium market showed a weak consolidation trend. At the beginning of the week, affected by the fermentation of environmental protection policy news, the price of the industry had a small rebound. On Monday, the market quotation of mainstream areas was 19500 yuan / ton. However, in the later stage, the market price was increased, and the downstream customers did not follow up obviously, resulting in limited price rise and steady price reduction. On Friday, the price fell back to 19100 yuan / ton. As of July 12, the specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19500-19600 yuan / ton; In Ningxia, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19500-19600 yuan / ton; In Taiyuan area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19600-19700 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory cash including tax is 19700-19800 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

Cost side: Recently, the price of coal market is gradually clear, affected by the price protection policy, the price of coal is gradually callback, the support of cost side is weakened, and the price of magnesium is falling; Ferrosilicon market according to relevant news reports, Zhongwei area is limited, and Fugu area is forced to reduce production due to insufficient power supply.

Supply and demand side: the downstream customers are not enthusiastic in purchasing, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the inventory of magnesium on the supply side is relatively stable. Some businesses are optimistic about the future price due to the news of LAN Tan upgrading and transformation, and they are reluctant to sell, so there is little pressure on shipping.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that in the short term or will maintain a weak stable situation, the demand side is relatively flat, superimposed coal prices fall, so the price upward lack of support.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on July 9 was 3993.33 yuan / ton, up 6.49% from the beginning of the week, 10.93% from the beginning of the month, and 62.77% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas market recovered, and the price continued to push up, with an increase of more than 6% in the week and a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. During the week, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places increased in a large area, and the price was mostly in the range of 3750-4600 yuan / ton. Many places had broken the 4000 yuan / ton mark, and LNG was no longer cheap. At the beginning of the week, with the increase of demand after July 1, domestic liquid prices had been in the mood of rising, but the fluctuation was limited, and most of them were small adjustments. In the middle and late part of the week, the price increase was more obvious. At present, the price of imported gas was high. Driven by this, domestic liquid plants actively followed the rise. At the same time, due to cost considerations, the price support mood of liquid plants was strong. At present, with the increase of vehicle and industrial demand, as well as the increase of temperature and power plant consumption, the support of demand side is gradually improving. At the same time, there are some advantages in the maintenance of some liquid plants and the supply side, as well as the rise of feed gas price in July, which jointly boost the domestic liquid price.

At present, Inner Mongolia is 3600-3900 yuan / ton, Shaanxi is 4000-4200 yuan / ton, Shanxi is 3900-4250 yuan / ton, Ningxia is 3950-4000 yuan / ton, Henan is 4230-4450 yuan / ton, Hebei is 4200-4450 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 4000-4200 yuan / ton, the price of gas is about 4080-5000 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid has been increased in different degrees.

region Specifications July 9th July 1st Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3600-3900 3450-3800 + 150/+100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4000-4200 3670-3800 + 230/+400

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3900-4250 3600-3800 + 300/+450

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3950-4000 3780-3850 + 170/+150

Henan Province liquified natural gas 4230-4450 3670-3850 + 560/+600

Hebei liquified natural gas 4200-4450 3750-3950 + 450/+500

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4000-4200 3500-3900 + 500/+300

Downstream products are mixed:

Methanol. On July 8, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered. The mainstream transaction of methanol market in central Shandong Province was 2320-2340 yuan / ton, which was sent to spot exchange. The outlook was slightly different. The transaction price of methanol market in central and Northern Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. The overall atmosphere is general. In the methanol market in southern Shandong Province, the negotiation price dropped by 50 yuan / ton to 2390-2400 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2380-2400 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. Individual downstream inquiry, negotiation atmosphere is general.

Liquid ammonia, 8, the domestic liquid ammonia market stable, Shandong Province, liquid ammonia prices little change, today the region’s moderate amount of ammonia, normal shipping enterprises, the current normal inventory, today’s Shandong factory quotation is generally stable. At present, the mainstream price in this area is 4300-4400 yuan / ton. At present, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area is moderate, and the price is expected to be firm in the near future.

Urea. On July 8, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable. The price of upstream coal rose sharply recently, and the cost support was strengthened. From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; However, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches has risen, and the construction of rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises is acceptable, and most of them are used as soon as they are mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: Recently, the demand has increased, and some liquid plants have been overhauled. The shipping atmosphere of the manufacturers is good. At the same time, the rising price of the imported gas has boosted the domestic rising atmosphere. In the short term, the domestic liquefied natural gas market may continue to rise, but in the off-season, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the liquid price rise in the future market may narrow and gradually stabilize.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10020 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9%.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been maintained at 9500-9700 yuan / ton. The quotations of some manufacturers are higher than the market price. The actual transaction market on the floor is weak. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. The recent domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid is supportive, and the price trend on the floor is temporarily stable.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, part of the hydrofluoric acid plants on the site operate stably, and the price of upstream raw materials of hydrofluoric acid changes little. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 9500-9700 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9400-9700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the manufacturers reflect that the recent delivery situation is normal, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is relatively stable.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, was temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the domestic price of fluorite was 2638.89 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable. In the near future, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and the domestic fluorite plant started relatively normally. However, in the near future, the environmental protection supervision was strict, and the affected plants stopped in some areas, This week, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly affected by the stable trend.

The market trend of domestic refrigerants has dropped slightly. Recently, the sales situation of automobile industry is normal. The market of refrigerants is temporarily stable. The demand is mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerants industry remains stable. The market of various types of refrigerants has little change. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship and the sales pressure is large. The price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, has declined slightly and lost some cost support, The export volume of refrigerants changed little, the output of downstream air conditioners was low, the demand was scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continued, and the price of refrigerants remained stable temporarily. On the whole, negative factors dominate the refrigerant market, and the prices of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform are lower, which makes the refrigerant industry under pressure. At present, the load of R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, the market price trend is stable, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery situation of goods holders is normal, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-17500 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers are operating under low load, and the price trend of R134a is declining. However, at present, purchasing on demand is the main trend, downstream enterprises are not high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the market trend of downstream refrigerants is slightly declining, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Judging from the industrial chain diagram, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry is not good, the price of raw material fluorite has little change, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products has come down. However, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant has been running stably recently, the spot supply on the floor is normal, and the downstream demand has little change. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst in the business community, thinks that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may be stable temporarily.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 8, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16433 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 367 yuan / ton, or 2.28% compared with the price on July 1.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average factory price reference of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 6666 yuan / ton, and the average price is up 133 yuan / T, up 2.04% compared with that of july6,2021 (reference price of 6533 yuan / ton). Compared with the price of july1,2021 (reference price of 6866 yuan / ton), the average price is down 200 yuan / ton, down 2.91%.

From the data monitoring chart of business society, it can be seen that from the late June, the trend of domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate has been contrary to that of raw material epichlorohydrin. In late June, the raw material epichlorohydrin market was reversed, while the prices of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate both declined at the end of the month, and the overall price was weak. In early July, the market of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate kept in line with each other, and continued to maintain weak operation. Until July and August, propylene glycol led to a rebound in the market of dimethyl carbonate.

In terms of propylene glycol, since July 6, the domestic propylene glycol market has been operating at a high level for three consecutive days. At present, the in-house export has performed well. Therefore, the propylene glycol plant has low inventory, low supply pressure and obvious intention of price fixing. In terms of demand, downstream just need to purchase primarily, recently the market has been increasing, and the stock is relatively positive.

In terms of dimethyl carbonate, the market of dimethyl carbonate has been rising in recent two days, and the high-end quotation has risen to 7100 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is mainly maintained, the overall trading climate is general, and there is no obvious pressure on the supply side.

In the upstream of propylene oxide, in early June, the market of propylene oxide was significantly lower than that in the late June. After falling to a low point, the market of propylene oxide began to rise steadily in late June. In July, the price of propylene oxide continued to rise steadily. On July 7, the 240000t po/mtbe unit of Wanhua chemical epichlorohydrin was operated stably, with the customers of self-use and supply contract as the main part. The latest ex factory quotation was RMB 16800 / T, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

Post market forecast

In terms of propylene glycol, at present, propylene glycol inventory is low, and under the support of tight supply, it is expected that the market will mainly be strong operation in the short term. In terms of dimethyl carbonate, at present, there is no obvious pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate, downstream demand continues, just need to purchase, and the trading atmosphere in the yard is general. It is expected that in the short term, the market of dimethyl carbonate will be adjusted mainly in a narrow range.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (July 7): 12590 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 12590 yuan / ton on the 7th, up 0.72% from the previous day. Since July, affected by the rising price of crude oil and butadiene and the rising cost, Shunding manufacturers have been increasing, and business offers have been rising. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of July 7, the ex factory price of Qilu Shunding of Sinopec North China sales branch was 12500 yuan / ton; In addition, the price of natural rubber has been rising steadily since July, forming support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of July 7, the price of natural rubber was 13050 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: there is a certain support for the rise of raw materials, but the demand is slightly general. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will be stable in the short term.