According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market situation of ammonium chloride rose sharply in July. The price at the beginning of the month was around 830 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the month was around 1075 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 29.52%.

In July, the overall operating rate of ammonium chloride enterprises was around 60%, which was significantly lower than that in June. The manufacturer’s inventory was low, there was no pressure on shipment, and the offer was gradually increased; In July, the overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer continued to maintain around 30 ~ 40%, and the support for ammonium chloride was weak. According to the business agency, as of July 31, 2021, the 3.3 million ton agricultural ammonium chloride plant in Jinshan, Henan Province, Jindadi plant was in normal operation, and the construction of Jinshan and Jintian plants was 40-50%. At present, the factory price of agricultural ammonium chloride in dry ammonium province is 1150 yuan / ton, and the factory price of wet ammonium province is 1100 yuan / ton.

The sharp rise of raw liquid ammonia and the high consolidation of urea market have formed strong support for ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4883 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 10.15% over the price of 4433 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 31, the domestic urea price was 2830 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 1.07% over the price of 2800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: the ammonium chloride analyst of business society believes that although the operation of combined alkali is low, the cost support of ammonium chloride is strong, and it is expected that ammonium chloride will remain strong in the short term; However, in the medium term, with the end of the peak season of agricultural demand, the price of agricultural materials will fall to a certain extent, and the price of ammonium chloride may fall to a certain extent in the later stage.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on July 29 was 38.22, the same as yesterday, down 61.78% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 40.10% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in July 2021

According to the data monitoring of business society, in July 2021, the domestic all latex Market of natural rubber continued to fluctuate widely after a sharp rise at the beginning of this month, showing a “W” shape: the mainstream reported 12370 yuan / ton on the 1st and 13107.5 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 5.96%; It is worth noting that the highest price of this month was 13212 yuan / ton on the 16th, the lowest was 12370 yuan / ton on the 1st, and the maximum amplitude was 6.81%. This month, the domestic output of new rubber gradually increased, the operating rate of tire enterprises picked up, and the output of outer tire increased; Affected by the epidemic and rainfall in Southeast Asia, the output of new rubber is limited, the export is limited, the sea freight is high, the container is short, and the import of raw rubber is restricted, which makes the natural rubber market fluctuate upward this month.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the main natural rubber production areas in China are normally opened and cut, and the inventory of new rubber is increasing. In Southeast Asia, according to Thailand on July 20, affected by the spread of delta mutant strain, the three major rubber producing countries in the world, namely Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, reduced rubber production by 4-5% due to curfew and city closure measures. In addition to the fact that the epidemic situation in Thailand has not improved, it has also been affected by heavy rainfall in the south. In addition, the shortage of rubber shipping containers cannot be solved, resulting in high transportation costs, including lack of labor and decline in rubber production. The latest news from the international tripartite Council of rubber (ITRC) pointed out that there is almost no rubber production, which is quite scarce. The two countries with insufficient supply and demand have an annual output of 3.22 million tons in Indonesia and 560000 tons in Malaysia. As the blockade measures are implemented during the epidemic and cannot be exported, the total output of the above two countries is expected to decline by 4-5% during the same period. And the impact of heavy rainfall on Southeast Asia is increasing. According to Thai media reports on the 28th, the Thai Meteorological Bureau released a 24-hour weather forecast. 29 provinces in Thailand will usher in heavy rainfall, especially in eastern and northern Thailand, Bangkok and its surrounding areas.

From the downstream demand and the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, the operating rate picked up in July. Data statistics show that as of July 22, the domestic operating rate of all steel tires was 62.75% (+ 3.8%), and the domestic operating rate of semi steel tires was 58.65% (+ 2.8%). According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire casing in China in June was 75.389 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. From January to June, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 32.1% over the same period of last year to 449055 million. From the automobile data, the national automobile output was 2.04 million in June 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. According to the ten day report data of 11 key automobile enterprises in the industry, China Automobile Industry Association shows that in the first and middle of July 2021, the automobile production of 11 key enterprises completed 806000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 33%. Among them, the production of passenger cars decreased by 31.2% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle production decreased by 41.3% year-on-year. According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, the decline in production and sales of passenger cars is mainly affected by the insufficient supply of chips, while commercial vehicles are related to the switching of emission standards. With regard to the development trend of the automobile industry in the future, the China Automobile Association said that China’s economic operation will continue to maintain a stable recovery, which plays a good supporting role in the stability of automobile consumption. However, there are still unstable and uncertain factors in the global economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control, there are also differences in the development of different domestic industries, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery still needs to be consolidated, In particular, the impact of chip supply on enterprise production is still prominent, and the sharp rise in raw material prices will further increase the cost pressure of enterprises. These problems will also affect the automotive industry. Therefore, the association is still cautious and optimistic about the development trend of the industry.

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the exchange in the previous period was 193886 tons (+ 3271 tons) as of July 23, and the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 177270 tons (- 880 tons). The data showed that the slight recovery of downstream procurement and the slowdown of import volume led to the continued downward trend of port inventory.

In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13, China imported 462000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in June 2021, down 13.5% from 534000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to June 2021, China imported a total of 3.294 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 5.2% over 3.132 million tons in the same period in 2020. Thailand: according to Thai media reports on July 18, the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand said that in the first five months of 2021, Thailand’s rubber exports increased by more than 50% year-on-year. The export volume was 70.34 billion baht, an increase of 50.8% over 46.65 billion baht in the same period last year. The export volume increased to 1.39 million tons from 1.17 million tons in the same period last year.

Hot spots in the industry: the rubber authority of Thailand promotes the plan of planting durian instead of rubber – according to the report of Thai media on July 26, as a valuable crop, the market demand for durian is growing. Therefore, cherun Chai, Minister of agriculture and cooperatives of Thailand, put forward the idea of planting durian instead of rubber. According to the 20-year rubber strategy, it is planned to reduce the rubber planting area to about 18.4 million Lai“ The rubber cutting plan of planting new crops to replace old rubber will only be aimed at rubber trees over 25 years old. The rubber cutting surface of these rubber trees has been used up, and farmers will cut them faster because the price of rubber wood is high. Planting other crops to replace rubber will be part of the rubber price stabilization plan to solve the problem of continuous low price from the past. ”

As for the future market, the analysis of business society believes that from the macro perspective, international crude oil has experienced a sharp decline and rebound of more than 10 points this month, and bulk commodities with strong financial attributes have also experienced the same market. From the output situation, the output of natural rubber supply end in China is normal, and the pressure of increasing production is intensified; The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian production areas is still severe, coupled with the impact of weather factors, the local rubber export volume has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream tire enterprises continued to rise this month, but due to the impact of macro demand and insufficient chip supply, the production and sales of passenger cars still declined. In terms of import and export, affected by the high shipping costs and the lack of ships, China’s market is still expected to have a low import volume. The typhoon “fireworks” transit this month, and the arrival time of some imported ships has been delayed to a certain extent. In terms of inventory, the recovery of downstream start-up has accelerated the consumption of existing inventory and delayed the arrival time, resulting in the continuous inventory reduction stage of domestic port inventory. As for the future market, the “golden nine and silver ten” will be soon after August, with strong upward support; Long term rubber price trend, focusing on foreign anti epidemic situation and downstream demand recovery.

Commodity index: on July 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 91.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 8.34% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that in the second half of July, the price of solid polyaluminium chloride in China (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) decreased slightly. On the 20th, a torrential rain disaster occurred in Henan. The water treatment enterprises in Gongyi water area, one of the main production areas, were forced to stop production for about a week. Most enterprises were stable, and a small number of enterprises with high inventory reduced their quotation slightly in order to ship goods; After the power was restored, the water treatment enterprises resumed production, the road transportation was still blocked, and the product shipment was affected. According to the monitoring data, the domestic main report was 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 16th and 1690 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a downward range of 1.93%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data of hydrochloric acid: business society, in July, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was mainly volatile and stable, and a small number of manufacturers slightly reduced the ex factory price in late October; Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 16th was 230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 31st was 226.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.45%; The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the cost support for hydrochloric acid is poor, the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. Calcium powder: according to the introduction of manufacturers in the main production area, the price of calcium powder is relatively stable in the near future, which has no significant impact on the market of polyaluminium chloride.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process.

region Specifications July 27th July 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4680-4900 3450-3800 + 1230/+1100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4750-5050 3670-3800 + 1080/+1250

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-4950 3600-3800 + 1250/+1150

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4780-4880 3680-3850 + 1100/+1030

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5210 3670-3850 + 1330/+1360

Hebei liquified natural gas 4950-5200 3750-3950 + 1200/+1250

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4600-5000 3500-3900 + 1100/+1100

The sharp rise of liquid price in July was mainly due to the increase of cost, the decrease of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, and the continuous rise of air intake. Multiple positive factors superimposed to support the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places increased by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity shifted significantly upward. In the second half of the month, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season. On the 16th, the domestic mainstream quotation was 4506.67 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream quotation was 5146.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.19%, which was very eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Downstream demand: there is still no significant improvement in the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride in the second half of the month. According to the enterprise, the current demand is still general, the enterprise has great sales pressure, and the downstream demand is generally lower than that in 2020. In particular, the production in the main production area was affected to some extent due to the rainstorm. The production was stopped for about a week. After the power was restored, the manufacturer resumed production. Due to road damage and limited logistics and transportation, the procurement of raw materials and the delivery of finished products were affected, delaying the product shipment and inventory consumption, which made the weak downstream procurement worse.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the current manufacturer’s inventory is OK, transportation and shipment are limited, and the change of raw material cost is weak, and the polyaluminium chloride market is stable and weak; However, this month, the production cost and downstream demand of LNG for production increased, and the market supply decreased, resulting in a sharp rise in the market. For polyaluminium chloride, its production cost increased. In the future, it is not ruled out that polyaluminium chloride will rise slightly, but the market will remain stable under the condition of normal production and no significant improvement in demand.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1175 yuan / ton

Commodity index: on July 29, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 98.33, the same as yesterday, down 7.48% from the highest point of 106.28 in the cycle (2012-05-24), and up 168.29% from the lowest point of 36.65 on June 23, 2014（ Note: period refers to 2011-0 (from September 1 to now)

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate is stable today. At present, the demand at home and abroad is weakening. Due to the continuous rise in the early stage, the market of ammonium sulfate is weakening. The price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has a steady downward trend. The quotation of most domestic ammonium sulfate enterprises remained stable. The downstream compound fertilizer market is stable and finishing.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand of ammonium sulfate is general, and the export demand slows down. The supply of ammonium sulfate is tight, and the price of ammonium sulfate is expected to be weak and stable in the short term.

In July, the overall propane Market showed a volatile upward trend, with frequent fluctuations in the month. Near the end of the month, propane fell. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4755.75 yuan / ton on July 23 and 4713.25 yuan / ton on July 26. The decline range on July 26 was 0.89%, an overall increase of 3.74% compared with July 1.

As of July 26, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications July 26th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4550-4900 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4650-4830 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4650-4770 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4600-4700 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4520-4900 yuan / ton

In July, due to seasonal factors, the traditional off-season sales of propane came. However, since July, the propane Market as a whole has shown a volatile upward trend, and the off-season market is not light. There were many positive factors in the month, supporting the rise of price shocks. However, near the end of the month, Shandong propane market fell from a high level. On the 26th, the propane Market in Shandong decreased steadily, and the market transaction atmosphere was general. Due to weak downstream demand and multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement, it brought some restraint to the rising market. The northern market made a small profit and mainly delivered goods. The southern market mostly pushed up. The slight rise of international crude oil at the weekend and the expected upward trend of CP in August are good for the market mentality, but the market demand is still weak, and it is difficult to clinch a deal at a high price.

Saudi Aramco’s CP announced in July that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 620 USD / T, an increase of 90 USD / t over the previous month; USD 620 / T butane, up from USD 95 / t last month.

On July 23, the international oil price closed up slightly. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $72.07/barrel, an increase of US $0.16 or 0.2%, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $74.10/barrel, an increase of US $0.31 or 0.4%. Oil prices rose for four consecutive trading days, mainly due to the rising expectation of tight supply in the market in the future. Traders believe that the previous concerns about demand have been exaggerated. It is generally believed that the demand growth will exceed the new supply for a period of time at the end of the year.

Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the overall demand of the downstream is weak, and multi-dimensional holding makes up on demand, which brings some restraint to the rising market. At present, there are differences in the market trend between the north and the south, with the North falling and the South rising, but on the whole, the fluctuation range is limited and the price is relatively strong. The slight rise of international crude oil and the expected rise of CP price in August have brought some support to the market. It is expected that the price of propane market will remain strong in the short term, dominated by horizontal adjustment.

In late July, the three varieties of polyethylene in stock rose and fell this week. LLDPE has been significantly increased, with the range of 50-250 yuan / ton, LDPE is stable, some of which are up regulated, HDPE has fallen continuously, with the range of 100-200 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8216.67 yuan / ton on July 18, 8383.33 yuan / ton on July 23, and the increase rate in the week was 2.03%, up 1.00% compared with July 1.

According to the data of business society, the average factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10500.00 yuan / ton on July 18, and that of July 23 was 10050.00 yuan / ton, which was stable in operation within the week, and it has no change for now, up 3.45% compared with July 1.

According to the data of business society, the average price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9300.00 yuan / ton on July 18, 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 23, and the decline rate was 1.79% in the week, 0.72% lower than that on July 1.

In late July, the three kinds of polyethylene spot rose and fell. Petrochemical company adjusted the factory price narrowly, with different trends and insufficient cost support. The linear coal chemical plant is mainly maintained, and the low price supply is relatively small, and the fluctuation of futures market brings some support to the spot market. High pressure is relatively firm due to the low capacity. The low-pressure market will lower the price according to the situation. The terminal is currently cautious in taking goods and making up the goods as required. The average start rate of PE enterprises in this period was 84.07%, down 3.25% from 87.32% last week.

Upstream ethylene market, the recent external ethylene market overall showed a rising trend. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable, as of 22, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $1001-1011 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 966-976 / T. The price center of European ethylene market moved upward, as of 22, FD northwest Europe closed at $1160-1170 / T, CIF NW Europe closed at $1063-1071 / T. The price of ethylene in the U. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market is good in the near future, the purchasing atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the center of the ethylene market moves upward.

On July 23, the opening price of PE futures 2109 was 8380, the highest price was 8415, the lowest price was 8280, the closing price was 8325, the former settlement price was 8425, the settlement price was 8345, down 100, or 1.19%, the volume of trading was 379659, the position was 310609, and the daily position increased by 14601（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In general, in terms of demand, the later stage of agricultural film has a small improvement expectation, but the pipe construction rate has decreased significantly, and the overall demand has not changed much. Petrochemical factory prices are currently stable, cost support is general, downstream market enthusiasm has been weaker than the previous stage, multi-dimensional on-demand supplement, continue the negotiation mode, business mentality is general, the offer price rise and fall. It is expected that PE spot market lacks clear guidance in the short term, or maintains the mutual occurrence of rise and fall.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly on July 26. The spot copper quotation was 71231.67 yuan / ton, up 1.57% from 70128.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, 22.91% from the beginning of the year and 37.07% year-on-year.

The Fed still held a dovish tone and copper closed up $164 the following week. Benefiting from the strong demand in downstream areas such as new energy, the non-ferrous metal industry has performed strongly recently“ Under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the world vigorously develops new energy vehicles. The increase of copper consumption per vehicle and the construction of charging pile network are also new increments of global copper demand. The second batch of domestic abandoned reserves were lower than expected, copper inventories continued to decline, demand prospects were optimistic, and copper prices were supported. It is estimated that the global copper demand for new energy vehicles will increase from 110000 tons in 2020 to 1.07 million tons in 2030, and the global copper demand for solar photovoltaic will increase from 160000 tons in 2020 to 520000 tons in 2030. The proportion of global demand for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power copper in China’s copper production will increase from 6.5% in 2020 to 12.7% in 2030. Copper prices are expected to be dominated by short-term or strong operation.

1、 Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to operate stably, moderately and strongly this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 2183.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 2200.00 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

The overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite this week is acceptable. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2000-2350 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 2200-2300 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, the overall inventory is low, and the overall supply of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market is tight. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. Under the support of rigid demand and cost, some enterprises slightly transfer out the factory price, driving the continuous strong operation of domestic sodium pyrosulfite Market price（ The above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

Since the beginning of July, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 5.07% as a whole, and the price of sulfur has increased slightly by 0.2%. The raw material cost has continued to rise. With the support of cost, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to operate strongly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to be strong in the short term.

On July 22, when the domestic futures market opened, the main contract of PTA futures rose strongly to 5330 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.00%.

In the spot market, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of PTA spot market was 5361 yuan / ton, up 3.46% over the previous day and 51.83% over the same period last year.

From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, polyester demand under high temperature maintains off-season, and the operating rate is close to 90%. PTA plant maintenance remains high, and the recent typhoon weather in East China has affected its transportation, which aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand in some regions in the short term. At the same time, the oil price stabilized and rebounded, and the support at the support end increased, resulting in a sharp rise in the PTA market.

Business analysts believe that short-term PTA is expected to maintain shock upward, but still need to close the oil market dynamics and guard against the risk of price fall after typhoon weather speculation.

As of July 20, the average price of raw silk was 422000 yuan / ton, up 23000 yuan / ton or 5.76% from three months ago. There was a slight decline in raw silk last week, with a decline of 0.36%. Compared with the price of raw silk in five years, the price in 2018 was significantly higher than that in the other four years, the price in 21 years showed an overall upward trend, and the price after April was higher than that in the other three years.

In Henan, Luoyang optimizes the development mode of silkworm industry, lengthens the industrial chain and promotes the value chain. Luoyang is one of the Oriental starting points of the silk road. Its unique ecological environment is very suitable for silkworm cultivation. It has a long history of mulberry cultivation and silk industry development in Luoyang. In recent years, the counties and districts represented by Song County have successively issued special support policies, introduced leading enterprises, planned from a high starting point and built silkworm industry with high standards, and waded a happy road of “gold” silkworm and “silver” mulberry. In addition, relying on the acquisition station of Baise sericulture farm, the silkworm breeding cocoon industry in Lingyun County of Guangxi has realized the “win-win” of industrial development, cooperative efficiency, village collective economy increase and farmers’ income increase. At present, the planting area of mulberry garden in Lantai village is more than 800 mu, and there are more than 89 sericulture households. In the whole year, there are more than 600 sericulture households, with an annual output of 67200 Jin of fresh cocoons and an output value of 2352000 yuan, which injects industrial power into rural revitalization and development. There are 6382 sericulture farmers in Lingyun county. This year, more than 10000 spring silkworms will be planted in the county. In order to ensure the orderly and steady progress of sericulture in 2021, all levels and departments of the county continuously increase publicity and technical training, actively guide farmers to grasp the management of mulberry garden, and do a good job in the early stage of irrigation, fertilization, weeding and replanting.

Business analysts believe that raw silk prices continue to rise. Since 2021 / 7 / 11, the 7-day moving average has undercrossed the 30 day moving average and started the downward trend. At present, the two moving average are going downward in the same direction. According to the calculation of 2021 / 7 / 18, the probability of changing the operation situation in the next 7 days (that is, the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average) is 44.05%.