Commodity index: on July 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 91.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 8.34% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that in the second half of July, the price of solid polyaluminium chloride in China (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) decreased slightly. On the 20th, a torrential rain disaster occurred in Henan. The water treatment enterprises in Gongyi water area, one of the main production areas, were forced to stop production for about a week. Most enterprises were stable, and a small number of enterprises with high inventory reduced their quotation slightly in order to ship goods; After the power was restored, the water treatment enterprises resumed production, the road transportation was still blocked, and the product shipment was affected. According to the monitoring data, the domestic main report was 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 16th and 1690 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a downward range of 1.93%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data of hydrochloric acid: business society, in July, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was mainly volatile and stable, and a small number of manufacturers slightly reduced the ex factory price in late October; Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 16th was 230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 31st was 226.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.45%; The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the cost support for hydrochloric acid is poor, the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. Calcium powder: according to the introduction of manufacturers in the main production area, the price of calcium powder is relatively stable in the near future, which has no significant impact on the market of polyaluminium chloride.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process.

region Specifications July 27th July 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4680-4900 3450-3800 + 1230/+1100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4750-5050 3670-3800 + 1080/+1250

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-4950 3600-3800 + 1250/+1150

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4780-4880 3680-3850 + 1100/+1030

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5210 3670-3850 + 1330/+1360

Hebei liquified natural gas 4950-5200 3750-3950 + 1200/+1250

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4600-5000 3500-3900 + 1100/+1100

The sharp rise of liquid price in July was mainly due to the increase of cost, the decrease of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, and the continuous rise of air intake. Multiple positive factors superimposed to support the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places increased by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity shifted significantly upward. In the second half of the month, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season. On the 16th, the domestic mainstream quotation was 4506.67 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream quotation was 5146.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.19%, which was very eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Downstream demand: there is still no significant improvement in the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride in the second half of the month. According to the enterprise, the current demand is still general, the enterprise has great sales pressure, and the downstream demand is generally lower than that in 2020. In particular, the production in the main production area was affected to some extent due to the rainstorm. The production was stopped for about a week. After the power was restored, the manufacturer resumed production. Due to road damage and limited logistics and transportation, the procurement of raw materials and the delivery of finished products were affected, delaying the product shipment and inventory consumption, which made the weak downstream procurement worse.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the current manufacturer’s inventory is OK, transportation and shipment are limited, and the change of raw material cost is weak, and the polyaluminium chloride market is stable and weak; However, this month, the production cost and downstream demand of LNG for production increased, and the market supply decreased, resulting in a sharp rise in the market. For polyaluminium chloride, its production cost increased. In the future, it is not ruled out that polyaluminium chloride will rise slightly, but the market will remain stable under the condition of normal production and no significant improvement in demand.