This week, the acrylic acid market has indeed shown a strong upward trend and continuous price increases, mainly due to the tight domestic supply of acrylic acid.

1、 Price trend of acrylic acid market

According to the latest market price data, the average price of acrylic acid in the mainstream market across the country has shown an upward trend in recent times. As of December 24, 2024, the price was 7150 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase compared to previous days. This upward trend corresponds to the strong operation of the acrylic acid market this week, indicating that the market supply and demand relationship is still tight, leading to price increases.

2、 Analysis of Acrylic Acid Supply Surface

1. Device maintenance and load reduction: The operating level of the acrylic acid industry remained at around 70% this week, a decrease from the previous week. This is mainly due to some acrylic acid units undergoing maintenance or load reduction production.

2. Increased concentration of production capacity: In recent years, the production capacity of China’s acrylic acid industry has continued to expand, but market competition has also intensified. With the increasing concentration of industry production capacity and the improvement of upstream and downstream supporting facilities in the industrial chain, some large enterprises such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical have reduced production costs and improved their profitability by optimizing their production capacity structure and controlling output. This also affects the supply of acrylic acid to a certain extent.

In addition, changes in the price of raw material propylene have also had a significant impact on the market price of acrylic acid. Propylene is the main raw material for the production of acrylic acid, and its price fluctuates due to the influence of the crude oil market and the supply and demand relationship in the petrochemical industry. When the price of propylene rises, the production cost of acrylic acid increases, which in turn drives up market prices. This cost driven price increase mechanism is particularly evident in the acrylic acid market.

3、 Analysis of Acrylic Acid Demand Surface

In terms of demand, the market demand for acrylic acid and its related products continues to increase, driving the rapid development of the industry. The downstream of the acrylic acid industry chain is widely used in fields such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, plastics, etc. The demand for acrylic acid and its derivatives in these industries directly determines the production volume and product structure of the acrylic acid industry. With the acceleration of industrialization and the development of emerging fields, the demand for acrylic acid market has shown a stable growth trend, which further exacerbates the tightness of market supply.

Despite the tight supply of acrylic acid, downstream demand remains stable overall. Downstream products of acrylic acid, such as acrylic esters, refined acid, and SAP, have overall followed the trend of acrylic acid. However, some downstream products, such as acrylic acid lotion and water reducer, are still mainly purchased in just need, without large-scale demand explosion. This has led to the acrylic acid market being able to maintain a strong operation despite tight supply, but with limited growth.

4、 Future prospects

Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will continue to maintain a strong operating trend. On the one hand, there are still issues with the shutdown and maintenance of supply side equipment, and the supply of spot goods is becoming increasingly tight; On the other hand, the intention of companies to push up their offers is still strong, and the social inventory of spot goods is limited. Under the combined action of these factors, the price of acrylic acid market will continue to rise. However, it should also be noted that the slow follow-up speed of downstream demand and the sales pressure of holders may have a certain impact on the market. Therefore, the specific increase needs to pay attention to the increase in market demand and downstream industry orders.

In summary, the continued upward trend and strong operation of the acrylic acid market this week are mainly due to tight supply. The future market trend still needs to closely monitor changes in supply and demand relationships as well as the dynamics of upstream and downstream industrial chains.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since December 16th, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to decline weakly, with a decline of over 3%. On December 16th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8433 yuan/ton, and on December 23rd, the average market price of adipic acid was 8133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.56%.

Loose supply of adipic acid continues to weaken

In mid December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the weakening of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, limited support for cost increases, and weak demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition to the oversupply in the adipic acid market and the combination of multiple negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price ranging from 8100-8400 yuan/ton, indicating a weak market trend.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that negative pressure will continue to weaken the market for adipic acid in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to 20th, MTBE prices fell from 5612 yuan/ton to 5487 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.23% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.39%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.99%. The trend of the domestic MTBE market is gradually weakening. Due to the end of the phased replenishment of inventory by terminal operators, their enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials has slowed down. At the same time, as various gasoline components have risen to a phase high point, compressing the mixed profit of operators, their resistance to high prices is increasing. The MTBE market is stable but weak in consolidation.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s belief that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States. As of December 19th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.88 per barrel, a decrease of $0.51 or 0.7%.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has stopped rising and fallen. Refineries have lowered prices to promote sales, but the poor performance of terminal demand has suppressed the digestion of social unit inventory. The pace of mid to downstream merchants entering the market for procurement has slowed down, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.

As of the close on December 19th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $706.99-708.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $29/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $804.49-804.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $7.09 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $802.10-802.46 per ton (226.48-226.58 cents per gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on December 18th: 14960 yuan/ton

Analysis points: The titanium dioxide market had light trading on December 18th. Recently, the titanium concentrate market has maintained consolidation, and the sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized. Currently, the cost pressure on titanium dioxide enterprises remains, and manufacturers’ quotations are mostly firm. The demand for upstream and downstream factories is mainly driven by urgent procurement, with a general willingness to stock up before the holiday and insufficient performance. The market is deadlocked and mostly wait-and-see. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Prediction: The titanium dioxide market is expected to stabilize and operate in the short term.

1、 Market price trend

1. Price increase:

Due to the dual effects of tight spot supply and increasing downstream demand, the price of acrylic acid in the market is showing an upward trend. The price of acrylic acid varies in different regions and manufacturers, but overall it shows an upward trend. As of December 17th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6862.50 yuan/ton).

2. Active market atmosphere:

With the rise in acrylic acid prices, the market atmosphere has become more active. Some downstream enterprises have begun to actively stock up to cope with potential supply shortages in the future.

2、 Demand side impact

1. Downstream demand growth:

With the economic recovery and the increase of industrial production activities, the demand for acrylic acid in downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, and water treatment agents is gradually increasing.

The growth of downstream demand has further driven up the price of acrylic acid in the market.

2. Inventory management strategy:

Some downstream enterprises may adopt a wait-and-see attitude, replenishing as needed instead of stockpiling in large quantities, which to some extent exacerbates the situation of tight spot supply.

3、 Supply side impact

1. Limited production capacity:

Due to tight raw material supply, equipment maintenance, increased environmental requirements, or uneven distribution of production capacity, some acrylic acid production enterprises have limited production capacity and reduced the supply of acrylic acid in the market.

For example, the equipment maintenance or load reduction operation of some major acrylic acid production enterprises directly reduces the supply of spot goods, exacerbating the situation of tight supply.

2. Uncertainty of new production capacity:

Although new production capacity is about to be put into operation, there is uncertainty in the progress of production and effective output, which makes market participants more cautious in evaluating supply.

4、 Future prospects

1. Supply shortage may continue:

Considering the expected reduction in overseas supply and the high concentration of domestic production capacity distribution, the tight supply situation in the acrylic acid market may continue for some time. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, the market price of acrylic acid may continue to operate at a high level.

2. Price fluctuations may increase:

With the intensification of market supply and demand contradictions and the continuous rise in raw material costs, the price fluctuations in the acrylic acid market may further increase. Investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and price changes in order to adjust their investment strategies and procurement plans in a timely manner.

In summary, the tight supply of spot goods is one of the main reasons for the rise in the price of acrylic acid in the market. The future price trend of the acrylic acid market will depend on the combined effects of various factors such as supply, demand, and market competition. Therefore, investors and related enterprises should closely monitor market dynamics and relevant information to develop reasonable investment strategies and business plans.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16th, the price of isooctanol was 8200 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.65% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on December 9th. This week, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of isooctanol and cold demand, resulting in oversupply and fluctuating prices of isooctanol.

Adequate supply of isooctanol this week

This week, isooctanol enterprises started production at a high level and remained stable. In addition, new octanol production capacity was gradually put into operation in December, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 16th, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.83% compared to the DOP price of 8826.25 yuan/ton on December 9th. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high, and plasticizers have certain positive support for the demand for isooctanol. However, downstream inventory replenishment at low prices has limited support for the demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises has stabilized this week, and with the addition of new production capacity, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol; This week, downstream plasticizer manufacturers have seen an increase in production, but many of them are restocking at low prices, resulting in average demand for isooctanol and insufficient support for its upward trend. In the future, there will be an oversupply of isooctanol with average demand, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On December 9th, the market price of aniline was 9525 yuan/ton, and on December 13th it was 9525 yuan/ton. There was no fluctuation during the period, a decrease of 10.14% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market digested the increase and maintained stable operation. Due to multiple increases in aniline prices within the week, downstream market entry enthusiasm has weakened, with rigid demand being the main factor. The factory inventory remains at a healthy level, production is stable, and aniline prices are temporarily stable.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has strengthened and consolidated, with increased support for aniline. On December 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7338 yuan/ton, and on December 13th, the average price of pure benzene was 7856 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.36% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the northern market for aniline is affected by rainy and snowy weather, resulting in significant transportation resistance and poor factory delivery. It is expected that the aniline market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on December 12th: 14960 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On December 12th, the titanium dioxide market was temporarily stable. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable, while the trader’s quotation is relatively flexible. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and actual orders are cautious. The overall trading situation is relatively light. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Prediction: The titanium dioxide market is expected to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

The price of epichlorohydrin has continued to rise this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 11th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9125.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% compared to the beginning of this month (9025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The market price of propylene liquid chlorine on the raw material side fluctuates. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6858.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The atmosphere of epoxy chloropropane in the domestic market continues to rise. At present, due to the parking plans of some enterprises, the supply of spot goods in the market is tight.

Downstream demand side: Under cost support, downstream epoxy resins continue to show an upward trend. Suppliers are cautious in purchasing high priced raw materials and maintain a focus on purchasing for essential needs.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the rise and fall of cost side prices are uneven, with downstream demand mainly focused on purchasing and cautious procurement of raw materials. In addition, the market supply is tight, and it is expected that there may be a slight increase in the epoxy chloropropane market in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4290 yuan/ton. Today, the overall DMF market is weak and declining, with prices dropping by 0.23% compared to the previous day. The price is operating in a narrow and weak range, with a slight downward adjustment.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF has undergone a narrow consolidation, with prices slightly falling. Some companies have lowered their prices one after another, and the supply side is stable. On the demand side, downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. The market is in a game of supply and demand, and the mentality of industry players is average, with a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market.

In terms of cost: The upstream methanol supply and demand drive is average, and it will continue to operate narrowly this week. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of the methanol market is currently low, and downstream demand follows suit. Subsequent prices need to continue to pay attention to macro news.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices have continued to rise for several days in the past few days and are currently in the stage of digestion and consolidation. It is expected that DMF will maintain its current trend in the short term.