1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1851 yuan/ton, which is 7.11% higher than the reference average price of 1728 yuan/ton on February 14th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have shown a strong upward trend. As of February 20th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1750-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1770 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1780 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has sufficient supply and market demand has increased. In terms of supply, the urea market has remained stable this week with sufficient inventory levels. In terms of demand, the recent peak season for spring plowing has led to an increase in urea demand, an increase in downstream compound fertilizer production rates, and a significant increase in urea market trading volume.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been operating strongly recently. At present, there is a decrease in market supply and an increase in demand, but overall inventory is high. Under the continuous rise of urea, the market tends to stabilize, and in some areas, the market is loose. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will remain stable with a moderate decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of February 19th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4300 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market price has risen slightly, indicating a strong overall market operation.

2、 Market analysis

DMF prices are narrow and strong, with a small European style. Currently, downstream demand for DMF is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Market prices tend to be strong, with reference to spot delivery prices of 4400 yuan/ton in Shandong and surrounding areas, and around 4500 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a slight increase in prices.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: The average market price on February 18th was 7829.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has fallen today. Shandong’s local refining enterprises have poor shipments, leading to market promotions and further price reductions. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China remains stable. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating at a high level. International crude oil futures closed higher, while the price of pure benzene rose in the foreign market. Today, the styrene futures market strengthened. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is still acceptable. It is expected that the pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, with limited room for downward adjustment. Actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

This week (2.9-2.14), the dichloromethane market continued to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 14th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2572 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.11%;

Downstream demand is slowly recovering, with urgent procurement and reduced pressure on enterprise shipments. At the beginning of the week, the dichloromethane market continued to rise slightly. Currently, the market supply and demand are in a stalemate, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. On February 14th, the mainstream bulk price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2520-2570 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The operating load of the methane chloride unit in the enterprise has remained stable this week. The following is the operation status of the unit:

Cost aspect: The market atmosphere is weakening, shipments are slow, and the methanol and liquid chlorine markets are declining. On February 13th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2604.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream production is gradually recovering, and the demand for refrigerants is expected to be good. However, due to the impact of production and sales not yet recovering, factories have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards maintaining stability.

Business analysts believe that the expected increase in downstream production and demand will support the stable, medium to strong operation of dichloromethane.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the average sales price of PET was 6322 yuan/ton, and the market price fluctuated this week.

At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the polyester bottle chip market lack obvious drivers, and prices are expected to mainly fluctuate with costs. From the demand side, it is expected that the soft drink and oil industries will continue to increase in production, while the PET sheet industry has basically resumed work. In addition, foreign trade shipments have returned to normal, with signs of concentrated shipments in the short term. These factors have collectively driven the growth of demand for polyester bottle chips.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that there may be a certain risk of price correction in the PET market in the short term. However, due to low processing fees and a slight decrease in supply, factory inventory pressure is still acceptable, and the degree of correction is limited. With downstream production and delivery gradually resuming, it is expected that the spot price of water bottle materials in the polyester bottle chip market may remain between 6220 and 6300 yuan/ton. The actual trend of the future PET market will depend on the combined effects of multiple factors, including the operation of subsequent equipment, changes in demand, and the cost support brought about by changes in the crude oil market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 13, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7306 yuan/ton. Compared with February 9 (reference price of n-butanol is 7200 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 106 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48%.

This week, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China showed a narrow upward trend. During the week, the on-site price of n-butanol will be adjusted upwards, with an adjustment range of around 100-150 yuan/ton. As of February 13th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 7250-7400 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall pressure on the supply side of n-butanol is relatively low, and some equipment on site has been shut down for maintenance. The available inventory is low, and the supply side is providing support for the n-butanol market. During the week, downstream demand for n-butanol gradually recovered, with a slight increase on the demand side while maintaining stable and essential procurement. Under the mutual support of supply and demand, the focus of the n-butanol market has increased.

In terms of cost: This week, the upstream raw material propylene market has seen a slight increase overall. The support of n-butanol on the raw material side has been improved. On February 13th, the reference price of propylene was 6878.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to February 10th (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate in a stable to strong direction, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 12th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6680 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on February 5th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 12th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7116 yuan/ton, which is 0.23% higher than the reference average of 7110 yuan/ton on February 5th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, domestic phosphoric acid prices fluctuated slightly, with thermal phosphoric acid prices fluctuating and wet process phosphoric acid prices rising slightly. As of February 12th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-7450 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly increased this week. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly raise prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. At present, the market supply is tightening, the market demand is stable, and there is support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that in the short term, domestic yellow phosphorus prices will mainly rise.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and the market is mainly running steadily. After the holiday, the inventory of phosphoric acid in the market remained stable, and downstream replenishment was made as needed. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in the short-term supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market has fluctuated narrowly. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The supply and demand sides are relatively balanced, and market trading is light. It is expected that the short-term acid market will mainly experience consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on February 11th was 916 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.17% compared to the average price of 880 yuan/ton on February 5th.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has risen this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of their own equipment has increased. Ammonium sulfate manufacturers mainly offer high prices, while distributors actively operate. After the holiday, market demand increased and downstream pellet factories actively restocked, leading to a rise in market trading. Recently, urea prices have started to rise, which is favorable for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As of February 11th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 950-980 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has been improving recently, and the market price continues to rise. At present, downstream demand is increasing, and the market has a strong bullish atmosphere, dominated by favorable factors. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to rise strongly in the short term.

After the holiday, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7312.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.17% compared to the price of 7300 yuan/ton on February 6th. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable at a low level, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The downstream demand for phthalic anhydride remains stable. The price of ortho benzene has risen, the cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the price increase of phthalic anhydride has increased.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with approximately 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory levels, resulting in tight supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw materials such as benzene has increased after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% from the price of ortho xylene on February 6th, which was 7200 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The price of industrial naphthalene is consolidating strongly, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing strongly. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials is increasing.

Demand side: DOP market fluctuates and rises after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the DOP price was 8601.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8563.75 yuan/ton on February 6th. After the Spring Festival, downstream customers replenished their inventory, and downstream production was at a high level. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride urgently needed to be purchased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride briefly rebounded. With the end of the replenishment of plasticizer manufacturers after the holiday, the support for phthalic anhydride demand weakened.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has increased, the price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. There is a strong driving force for the cost increase of phthalic anhydride; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, coupled with post holiday inventory replenishment, which provides significant support for phthalic anhydride demand. In the future, with the end of inventory replenishment, demand will fall, industrial naphthalene prices will rise, cost expectations will increase, neighboring benzene prices will rise, phthalic anhydride costs will rise, and phthalic anhydride prices will slightly increase in the future.

On the first day after the holiday, major mainstream phenol markets in China rose, but then the market fell back, and overall prices remained unchanged compared to before the holiday. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7770 yuan/ton on February 4th, but fell back to 7750 yuan/ton on February 7th, with a weekly fluctuation of 0.9% or 90 yuan/ton.

On the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, the trend of pure benzene is relatively strong, supported by favorable cost factors, and phenol traders are tentatively reporting high prices. There is not much pressure on the spot supply of phenol. On the first day after the holiday, traders generally raised prices, but the pace of factory entry into the market is relatively slow. Some factories have postponed production, and downstream end users have made many inquiries and actual orders for replenishment, resulting in low trading volume.

On the supply side, the operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises after the holiday is 83%. In terms of imports, as of February 7th, the shipment volume of phenol in East China was 16200 tons, with 6000 tons already reached and 10000 tons still in transit.

On February 7th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation on February 7th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7700./ -20

Shandong region/ 7750./ -20

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7750./ -20

South China region/ 7800./ -50

From the perspective of Business Society, the domestic phenol market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations next week. In the short term, there is not much pressure on spot supply, and downstream factories will resume work one after another next week. The inquiry volume may increase, but most of it will be for urgent needs replenishment. In addition, considering factors such as cost and average price, traders are cautious in raising prices and will focus on the development of the demand side in the later stage.