According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has remained stable this week. As of July 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% compared to July 1st (11516.67).

Supply side: Recently, due to the continuous rise in raw material sulfuric acid prices, production costs of enterprises have been under pressure, and the hydrogen fluoride market is operating weakly and steadily. The mainstream price for domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiations in various regions is 10500-11700 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend continues to decline this week. As of July 19th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3685.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.55% compared to the beginning of this month (3781.25 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is greatly affected by the off-season, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out rectification of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the decline in fluorite prices is restricted.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, the refrigerant market has weak production, coupled with the normal impact of quotas, resulting in weak terminal demand. The enthusiasm for procurement has declined, mainly focusing on essential purchases.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite enterprises face many difficulties in starting production in the near future, but fluorite supply is still available; The price of sulfuric acid continues to rise, and the production cost pressure of hydrofluoric acid is significant. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has fallen. On July 23rd, the average market price in Shandong was around 807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from last weekend and an increase of 8.47% year-on-year. On July 22, the chemical index was 879 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the expected recovery of equipment maintenance and inventory in Shandong region is average, and downstream procurement is weak, resulting in relatively weak demand. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of about 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Shandong region, the price of caustic soda has slightly increased, with a mainstream market price of about 750-830 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. Most enterprises have lowered their prices by 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 29th week of 2024 (7.15-7.19), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-1.84%), baking soda (-0.90%), and PVC (-0.61%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.56%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has fallen, and the equipment of previous maintenance companies has gradually resumed, leading to an expected increase in supply and inventory. The demand for downstream alumina is average and lacks favorable support. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating trend in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has slightly increased in recent days (7.12-7.19). On July 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7610 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, a small increase of 0.13%. During the week, the market trend of toluene in various regions stabilized, and the market showed a situation of weak supply and demand, especially downstream demand only maintained the level of rigid demand replenishment, which had a certain drag on market sentiment. The focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined during the week, but due to tight supply, the downward space was limited, and market prices fluctuated narrowly.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, the enterprise is operating normally, the equipment production is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7600 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7500-7550 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7700-7750 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7650 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

This week, the comprehensive operating rate of PX in China is about 89%. On July 22, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China are all implementing this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. The price of PX in the external market has declined. As of July 19th, the closing price of CFR China was $1009/ton, a decrease of $3/ton from last week.

On Friday (July 19th), the Asian toluene market closed with mixed gains and losses, with the FOB Korea closing price of 879-881 US dollars/ton in August, down 1 US dollar/ton; The closing price of CFR China in August is 919-921 US dollars per ton, an increase of 4 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: With the recent increase in incoming goods, the overall supply of toluene in the market is relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream procurement intentions are relatively weak, with only some transactions in the southern region. The market negotiation atmosphere is relatively active, while the overall demand in Shandong and eastern China is relatively weak. Overall, the lack of downstream demand support has led to a bearish supply-demand situation in the toluene market, and it is expected that the market trend will be volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, under the dominance of cost decline, the mainstream market price of domestic polyester staple fiber slightly fell this week (July 15-19). As of July 19, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream staple fiber factories was 7918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the beginning of the week.

The price of raw material PTA has weakened, with the average PTA market price in East China at 5931 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.25%. The current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 84%, and some units will still restart in the later stage. However, the PTA maintenance plan is relatively few, and the liquidity may be sufficient after the supply returns, resulting in significant pressure on the accumulated inventory.

Mainstream polyester staple fiber factories maintain high price sales, increasing inventory pressure, and traders attract customers with relatively low prices, resulting in a strong shipping mentality. Although there are no maintenance plans in the near future, there is a possibility of unplanned production cuts due to the pressure of factory inventory accumulation. It is expected that the trend of production will decline and the supply will decrease.

On the demand side, the textile terminal continues to be in a off-season state, downstream yarn factories have weak shipments, the market has scarce new orders, and inventory turnover is slow. The yarn factory is resistant to high priced raw materials, and at the same time, cash flow is tight. They are mainly observing and maintaining a small amount of essential purchases.

Business analysts believe that the downward shift in cost center has weakened the support for polyester staple fibers, coupled with weak downstream demand, and the lack of enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Currently, only short fiber manufacturers are selling at high prices, which is expected to provide insufficient price support.

The zinc price fluctuated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 16th, the zinc price was 24202 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.29% compared to the zinc price of 24272 yuan/ton on July 9th.

Macro dynamics

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook report, maintaining its expectations for global economic growth. It is expected that the global economy will record growth rates of 3.2% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The IMF has raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 5%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than its April forecast. The latest forecast from the IMF is that global economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2% in 2024, while global trade volume is expected to increase by 3.1% and 3.4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, both of which are 0.1 percentage points higher than the forecast in April. The expected growth rate of the US economy this year has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%, while the expected growth rate of the Eurozone economy has been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%. The IMF stated that the momentum of global de inflation is slowing down, making the normalization of monetary policy more complex.

London LME futures market zinc ingot inventory decreased by 15750 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of July 16th, the inventory level of London zinc was 246100 tons. The LME market’s zinc ingot inventory continued to decline slightly, with a decrease of 15750 tons from the beginning of the month.

The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead Zinc Mine project has completed mining of 60000 tons

The Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in Xinjiang is located in the central part of the Karakoram Mountains, with characteristics such as large deposit scale, high ore grade, and simple mining and processing technology. The total investment of the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead Zinc Mine project is 26.17 billion yuan, including 12.221 billion yuan for mining engineering, 5.433 billion yuan for long-distance slurry transportation pipeline engineering, and 8.516 billion yuan for smelting engineering. At present, the mine has completed a total of 600000 cubic meters of stripping and extracted 60000 tons of ore.

Future forecast

According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, with the production of domestically burned cloud mines, there may be an increase in output, but considering the limited impact of weather conditions on actual mining time. Domestic safety and environmental inspections are relatively frequent, and some enterprises have also experienced a decrease in production due to the impact of floods and waterlogging disasters. This week, the production of zinc plating and zinc oxide downstream has rebounded compared to last week, but the performance of die-casting is still weak, and overall orders have not improved. Short term zinc prices are likely to remain volatile.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed an overall downward trend in the first ten months of July. On July 16th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 93912 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% compared to the average price of 95400 yuan/ton on July 1st. On July 16th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 97060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the average price of 100000 yuan/ton on July 1st.

On the cost side, the current cost of producing lithium carbonate from external lithium concentrate is about 97800 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica is about 102800 yuan/ton. The cost side continues to loosen, and lithium prices are under pressure. Some external mining and processing plants have reduced production, and the supply pressure has slightly eased.

On the demand side: In July, the production schedule of large factories producing ternary positive electrodes improved, but the increase was limited. It is expected that peak season stocking will begin in August, which may stimulate an increase in power battery production.

Downstream end: Lithium hydroxide prices are running weakly. At present, the production and sales operating rates of lithium hydroxide have both increased to a certain extent, and the overall performance of production and sales is average. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market will remain weakly stable in the later stage.

The lithium carbonate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is obvious pressure of overcapacity in the current lithium carbonate market, and there is still continuous production of new capacity. The surplus situation is difficult to change, and it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will remain in a wait-and-see situation, maintaining a low consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market rose first and then fell this week (7.8-12), and overall prices fell. On Monday, the average price of PVC in China was 5666 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% in price during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC spot market has been weak, with prices mainly decreasing slightly. With the weakening of the futures market, the mainstream transaction prices in the spot PVC market have also fallen to a certain extent. Coupled with the pressure of supply and demand, the spot market has weakened to some extent. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5500-5700 yuan/ton.

In terms of calcium carbide, as we entered July, the domestic price of calcium carbide continued to decline. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide dropped by 3.55% during the month. Overall, the trading sentiment in the calcium carbide market was pessimistic during the week, and the situation of traders receiving goods was sluggish compared to before.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market has experienced slight fluctuations and a decline this week. Upstream calcium carbide prices have decreased, with average cost support. International crude oil futures maintained range volatility, and the PVC futures market performed weakly in the later stage, affecting confidence in the spot market. The PVC spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate within a certain range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9912.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.75% compared to the DOP price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to Monday, July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 0.88%; Compared to the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st, it first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.51%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen this week.

This week, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9760 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.91% compared to the price of 9850 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to the price of 9860 yuan/ton of isooctanol quoted on July 8th at the beginning of this week, the price has decreased by 1.01%; Compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased by 0.51%. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. Downstream factories purchased according to demand, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for raw material procurement temporarily stabilized. Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards. The new orders in the isooctanol market increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.

This week, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and stabilized

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized this week. As of July 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8087.50 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to July 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 0.47% to 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7900-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. The domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable. The sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the naphthalene based phthalic anhydride market was consolidated. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. This week, the phthalic anhydride market has been strong and stabilizing.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; Downstream manufacturers have poor demand for plasticizers during the off-season. In the future, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall, the price of phthalic anhydride will stabilize, the cost of raw materials will decrease, and downstream demand will be off-season. The price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

Zinc prices rose first and then fell in the first half of this month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 10th, the zinc price was 24110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% from the fluctuation of zinc price of 24236 yuan/ton on July 1st.

Macro dynamics

Many regions continue to optimize their real estate policies, in addition to lowering down payments and interest rates, they have also continuously increased the amount of provident fund loans, reversing pessimistic expectations in the real estate industry. The National Development and Reform Commission has promoted the construction of all additional treasury bond issuance projects to start before the end of June this year, and the domestic policy side continues to make efforts. The expectation of three rate cuts within the year at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting has been lowered to one, and the May PMI of China and the United States has fallen, slowing down the expansion of the manufacturing industry.

The London LME futures market’s zinc ingot inventory decreased by 5475 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of July 9th, London’s zinc inventory continued to decline slightly, with the latest inventory level of 256375 tons. This week, London’s zinc ingot inventory continued to decline slightly, a decrease of 5475 tons compared to the beginning of the month.

The resumption of production of the century old Kiposh zinc mine

Ivanhoe Mines announced that its Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been rebuilt and production has resumed. The mine produces lead, zinc, copper, and germanium. It has been 100 years since the first production of the mine and 31 years since the shutdown for maintenance. On May 31st, the first batch of ore was delivered to the Kiposh concentrate plant, and the first batch of concentrate was produced on June 14th. The production target for zinc concentrate at Kiposh Mine in 2024 is 100000 to 140000 tons.

WBMS: Global zinc market oversupply of 184000 tons in April 2024

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in April 2024, global zinc sheet production was 1.1391 million tons, consumption was 955100 tons, and there was an oversupply of 184000 tons. From January to April 2024, the global production of zinc sheets was 4.5547 million tons, with a consumption of 4.3611 million tons and an oversupply of 193600 tons.

Zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased by more than half

Since the beginning of the year, the processing fee for zinc concentrate has been continuously decreasing, with a decrease of more than half, resulting in losses for the refinery. In addition, the domestic supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the profit level of zinc refineries is at a historical low. In July, the maintenance of the smelter exceeded expectations, and zinc production was expected to decrease by nearly 10%,

The enthusiasm has decreased, and the expected supply of zinc in the market has decreased, with some upward support for zinc prices.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, global zinc mines are in short supply, and domestic mines are resuming production, but the pressure for foreign mines to reduce production remains. The maintenance and production reduction of domestic refineries exceeded expectations, and the market supply was tight and balanced. Zinc prices were supported by the supply side and rose. Downstream consumption is still constrained by the weak reality of real estate and infrastructure, and the automotive industry has entered a traditional off-season, with demand slowing down and prices falling from high levels. Expected zinc prices to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of July 9th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 8930.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the beginning of the month.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in July, the price of epoxy propane in the market fell slightly and then remained stagnant and consolidated. However, after a slight recovery in recent times, it will continue to operate on a wait-and-see basis. As of July 9th, the mainstream price reference for Shandong epoxy propane market is around 8500-8600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors:

Cost side: Entering July, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of propylene on July 8th was 7113.25, a decrease of 0.28% compared to July 1st (7133.25). Since July, the main increase in raw material liquid chlorine has been. In recent years, the cost side of the epoxy propane market has been under pressure.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the month, some enterprises experienced fluctuations in their equipment, and inventory pressure on the supply side was controllable. However, downstream demand was mediocre, and purchasing attitudes were cautious, resulting in a weak performance in the epoxy propane market. This week, the price of epoxy propane rebounded narrowly from a low level, and downstream observers followed suit. The market atmosphere was average, and the market stabilized again.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that there is still cost support in the current market, and the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. The market transaction atmosphere is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may continue to operate in a wait-and-see manner, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.