According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 5, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was referenced at 8333 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference price of butanone was 8533 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 200 yuan / ton, down 2.34%. Compared with the price on July 6 (the reference price of butanone was 10533 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 2200 yuan / ton, down 20.89%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week, the domestic butanone market showed a downward trend as a whole. After the completion of the downstream phased procurement, this week, the trading atmosphere of butanone in the field returned to be indifferent, the downstream demand was weak, the trading atmosphere in the field showed a stalemate, and the confidence of butanone operators was insufficient. At the beginning of the week, the market price of butanone in the field was weak, and at the end of the week, the overall price of butanone in the market declined. Some butanone suppliers sold goods at a profit, and the ex factory price of butanone was reduced by 200-300 yuan / ton. As of August 5, The ex factory price of domestic butanone refers to around 8200-8400 yuan / ton. The transaction in the market is general and the transaction is not hot.

On the upstream side, in the first week of August, the domestic liquefied gas market was still weak as a whole, and the civil gas market in Shandong was steadily declining. At the beginning of August, the domestic liquefied gas market continued in the off-season, the overall trend was weak, the market was hard to find, and the civil gas market in Shandong was stable and low. In terms of cost, the international crude oil market fell during the week, which brought obvious bad news to the market. In August, CP was introduced, and both propylene and butane fell sharply, which hit the domestic market mentality. On the demand side, the weather in August was hot, and the terminal demand had not been significantly improved. The downstream mainly maintained replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was poor. There are obvious negative factors in the civil market of liquefied gas, and the price remains weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5626.00 yuan / ton on August 1, and 5600.00 yuan / ton on August 4.

Post market analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone market is weak as a whole, the downstream demand side is cautious, and the support is general. In terms of export, the international overall supply of butanone is relatively sufficient, so the export has not been significantly improved. The butanone data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market will mainly be adjusted and operated in a narrow range. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side and the changes in the field environmental factors

During the week, monomer prices fell slightly, ethylene oxide and its upstream ethylene basically hit the bottom, and EO currently has a loss of around 770 yuan, so there is no room for decline. The supplier is still in the market, but the demand transaction follow-up continues to be weak, and the goods holders are mainly active in shipping. Affected by extreme high temperature weather and the shortage of downstream funds, the demand side is still weak, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists, the monomer inventory is under pressure, and most downstream deliveries are cautious.

Forecast: short term market supply and demand may still be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline was strong and volatile in the first half of July, and the high price in the second half of the month fell back. On July 1, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 28, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell by 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.02% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material: pure benzene: due to the large number of downstream production units in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene has only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene is tight, domestic trade shipments are reduced, the high-level imports of superimposed outer disks are reduced, and the ports remain in the state of de stocking in the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure. The price of pure benzene was 9509 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9026 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 5.08% this month and an increase of 9.93% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price ladder of domestic nitric acid fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2950 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 2750 yuan / ton, down 6.78% from the beginning of the month and up 5.77% from the same period last year.

Due to the shutdown of some aniline plants in late June, the operating rate decreased significantly, the factory inventory remained at a normal level, and the cost side support remained, aniline was strong and volatile in the first half of July. As the cost side continued to decline and the downstream entered the traditional off-season with poor demand, the high price of aniline was difficult to maintain, and the price fell broadly in the second half of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: in the short term, the pure benzene port is still in the state of de stocking, but the market expects that the tight supply of pure benzene in August may be alleviated, and in addition, the import volume of pure benzene will increase in the later period, and pure benzene may still fall.

Nitric acid: the raw material market of liquid ammonia is poor, and the shipment of nitric acid is not smooth. It is expected that the price of nitric acid may be dominated by weak operation.

Raw material support is weak, downstream demand is poor, and aniline is expected to continue the weak trend in August. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, the change of downstream demand and the change of operating rate of aniline plant.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of August 2, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic premium power product, was 155000.00 yuan / ton. In June, the market price of lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable. Compared with the same period last month, the price did not change significantly. It continued to operate smoothly, and the supply side remained tight. The overall market negotiation focus of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

In the first ten days of July, as of July 15, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. Next week, lithium iron phosphate operated smoothly, and the price fluctuation range was small. You Gang mainly needed to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market operated smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly contract customers who arranged orders and shipped goods, and the number of new orders was limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, and the price remained high, The upper reaches remain high and continue to support the price. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains. At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton. Upstream lithium carbonate: the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate remained stable this week. On July 14, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on July 10, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton). On July 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on July 10, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton).

In mid July, as of July 21, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was small. You Gang mainly needed to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market operated smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly contracted customers who arranged orders and delivered goods. The number of new orders was limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton. Upstream lithium carbonate: the price of lithium carbonate continues to be stable, the market supply is in an incremental state, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is still in rigid demand for procurement. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term may still not fluctuate significantly.

In late July, as of July 28, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was small. You Gang mainly needed to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market operated smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly contract customers who arranged orders and delivered goods. The number of new orders was limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton. Upstream lithium carbonate: the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 461000 yuan / ton on July 27, up 0.44% from the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 459000 yuan / ton on July 1). On July 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 479600 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from the average price at the beginning of the month (July 1, the average price of carbon in East China was 478000 yuan / ton).

Chemical industry index: on August 1, the bulk commodity price index BPI was 1049 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 21.89% from 1343 points (2021-10-19), the highest point in the cycle, and up 58.94% from 660 points, the lowest point on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business club lithium iron phosphate, the lithium iron phosphate Market is expected to operate stably in August, with little price fluctuation. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

On August 1, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose. The average price of domestic fluorite was 2716.67 yuan / ton. The fluorite trading and trading situation in the site was general. The mine was generally started under the influence of environmental supervision. The raw fluorite price remained high, and the flotation cost of the concentrator was still supported. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined. Recently, the operation of fluorite units in the North was relatively normal, and the on-site supply was slightly tight, so the on-site fluorite price rose slightly. The mainstream price of fluorite negotiation in the venue rose. The delivery price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2550-2650 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-2750 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2750 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-2800 yuan / ton, the market trend of downstream refrigerant was low, and the venue responded that the supply of fluorite was relatively tight, and the domestic fluorite price was expected to be stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on July 29, the average p value of oil glycol was 4550 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of cost, the international crude oil market was affected by the mutual game between tight supply and the prospect of oil demand, and the crude oil price fluctuated in the range of $98-113 / ton in the month. The overall external price of ethylene glycol also fell first and then rose, falling from $560 / ton at the beginning of the month to $520 / ton, and then rebounded to the current $545 / ton.

The demand side continues to be depressed, and there is no obvious improvement trend at present. In the traditional off-season, the impact of the terminal on the ethylene glycol market is weakened, and ethylene glycol fluctuates with the crude oil market. The profit space has been compressed, making the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol hover below the 50% line for a long time. Henan energy Yongcheng 2# and Anhui hongsifang will start maintenance at the end of July, and the operating rate of coal based MEG units may fall to around 40% in August. MEG port inventory was slightly removed from the warehouse. As of July 28, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1678 million tons, an increase of 10500 tons over last Thursday, an increase of 0.91%, and an increase of 4900 tons over this Monday, an increase of 0.42%.

3、 Forecast: the terminal demand has not yet been released, and the upward space is limited, mainly fluctuating with the low level of crude oil.

It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream market price of urea in China fell sharply this month: the price of urea fell from 3034.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2392.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 21.16%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 14.88% year-on-year.

On July 28, the urea commodity index was 111.26, down 1.76 points from yesterday, down 26.96% from 152.33 points (2022-05-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.11% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In July, the price of urea fell sharply, with a maximum decline of 1.95% in a single week. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream market price of urea in China fell sharply this month.

The upstream support weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the urea price fell

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this month: the price of liquefied natural gas rose first and then fell. The price rose from 5862 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5992 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.22%, an increase of 52.47% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Anthracite prices continued to fall. The price of anthracite (washing medium block, volatile ≤ 8%) was 1714.3 yuan / ton, a decrease of 143.2 yuan / ton or 7.7% compared with the previous period. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply, from 4790 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3690 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 22.96%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.12% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this month, from 9233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7233.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 21.66%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakened, and industrial demand is insufficient. Agricultural demand in some areas has been eliminated. The operating load of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories is low, the industrial demand is insufficient, the price of melamine has fallen sharply, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. From the perspective of supply: in the recent overhaul of some urea manufacturers, the daily output of urea fell to about 140000 tons, and the daily output of urea may be further reduced in early August. In terms of exports: from January to June 2022, China’s total urea exports were 724100 tons, a decrease of about 1.7 million tons over the same period last year.

Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future

The urea market may hit the bottom and rebound in the first ten days of August. Due to insufficient demand and export restrictions, the price of urea has fallen sharply recently. However, in early August, compound fertilizer manufacturers may start autumn fertilizer production, with insufficient inventory and increased orders. In addition, the current urea price has fallen to the expectations of some manufacturers, and there may be a wave of bargain hunting purchase in the near future. Urea may hit the bottom and rebound in the future

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell first and then slightly recovered in July. As of July 27, the average market price was 6062 yuan / ton, down 8.27% from the beginning of the month and up 12.59% year-on-year.

Statistics of domestic PTA device changes in July

Production enterprise, unit capacity (10000 tons / year), unit change

Yisheng Ningbo., 200., parking

Yangzi Petrochemical. 65. Overhaul on March 14

Yadong petrochemical., 70%, load 90%

Honggang petrochemical., 220, overhaul on March 16

Hengli Dalian, 250, overhaul on July 2

Fuhaichuang, 450, parking at night on July 11

Baihong, 250, load 80%, maintain for a week

In terms of supply, Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in the shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined. Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. PTA operating rate remained low near 73%.

In July, the crude oil market was mainly affected by the strength of the US dollar, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures suppress demand, and the oil grid shocks weaken. As of July 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $94.98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.46 / barrel.

In July, the downstream polyester market fluctuated and fell, with a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottom rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%.

Business analysts believe that the wait-and-see sentiment in the oil market is intensifying near the Fed’s interest rate hike. The downstream polyester plant will be affected by limited electricity and sporadic epidemic, and the production reduction will be gradually implemented, and the demand side will also be further weakened. However, the spot of PTA supply side is still tight, and some PTA devices still have maintenance plans. It is expected that the demand in August is still dominated by costs without significant improvement, and PTA is expected to continue to be under pressure.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 10125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 0.25%, and the current price increased by 28.83% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell slightly in July. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has continued to rise since 2022, but the market began to fall this month. This is mainly because the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal and the price continues to fall. The supply of border trade goods has arrived one after another, and the supply of goods in the market is sufficient. The downstream demand was low, the market transaction was light, and the potassium carbonate market fluctuated and fell. According to the statistics of business agency, the recent mainstream ex factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate is about 9800-10200 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in July. The source of border trade goods has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the market supply is sufficient. At present, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 5300 yuan / ton. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton.

The price of potash fertilizer in the international market continues to decline, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 25):2522 yuan / ton

On July 25, the domestic comprehensive price of urea fell slightly, which was 95 yuan / ton lower than that on July 22, a decrease of 3.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%. The upstream cost support is general, the downstream agricultural demand is weakened, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The sales pressure of urea manufacturers increased, and the price was reduced to attract orders. During the overhaul of some manufacturers, the daily output of urea fell to about 147000 tons, and there is still a decline expectation.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may be adjusted at a low level, and the average market price is about 2520 yuan / ton.