1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline was strong and volatile in the first half of July, and the high price in the second half of the month fell back. On July 1, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 28, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell by 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.02% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material: pure benzene: due to the large number of downstream production units in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene has only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene is tight, domestic trade shipments are reduced, the high-level imports of superimposed outer disks are reduced, and the ports remain in the state of de stocking in the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure. The price of pure benzene was 9509 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9026 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 5.08% this month and an increase of 9.93% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price ladder of domestic nitric acid fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2950 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 2750 yuan / ton, down 6.78% from the beginning of the month and up 5.77% from the same period last year.

Due to the shutdown of some aniline plants in late June, the operating rate decreased significantly, the factory inventory remained at a normal level, and the cost side support remained, aniline was strong and volatile in the first half of July. As the cost side continued to decline and the downstream entered the traditional off-season with poor demand, the high price of aniline was difficult to maintain, and the price fell broadly in the second half of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: in the short term, the pure benzene port is still in the state of de stocking, but the market expects that the tight supply of pure benzene in August may be alleviated, and in addition, the import volume of pure benzene will increase in the later period, and pure benzene may still fall.

Nitric acid: the raw material market of liquid ammonia is poor, and the shipment of nitric acid is not smooth. It is expected that the price of nitric acid may be dominated by weak operation.

Raw material support is weak, downstream demand is poor, and aniline is expected to continue the weak trend in August. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, the change of downstream demand and the change of operating rate of aniline plant.