1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 24th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1832 yuan/ton, which is 0.41% higher than the reference average price of 1825 yuan/ton on July 17th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
This week, the domestic urea market price first rose and then fell. At the beginning of this week, downstream purchasing intentions improved, and the trading atmosphere in the urea market increased. Manufacturers are mainly raising prices, and the domestic urea market prices are rising. Starting from Wednesday, the futures market began to cool down, and with the urea market still dominated by oversupply, urea prices began to decline. As of July 24th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1790-1830 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1790 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1780-1830 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1800 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1780 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
On the supply side, some companies underwent equipment maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in daily production, but the urea market supply remains abundant. In terms of demand, there has been an improvement in the autumn fertilizer preparation situation. Compound fertilizer manufacturers replenish as needed, increasing demand for raw material procurement.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and declining recently. Manufacturers are mainly pushing prices, but market inventory remains high, coupled with poor futures market trends. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

The domestic epoxy propane market has seen a slight increase. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7356.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% compared to July 1.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine are running steadily, with a moderate impact on the price of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6530.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.83% compared to the beginning of this month (6720.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The phenomenon of supply contraction has affected the slight increase in epoxy propane prices.
On the demand side, the downstream trading atmosphere of epoxy propane has improved compared to before, and the purchasing enthusiasm of industry players has also been appropriately boosted. Overall, there is some support for the demand in the epoxy propane market, and the market may continue to operate steadily with an upward trend in the later stage.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of epoxy propane in the market has decreased, the support of raw material prices is limited, and the trading atmosphere in downstream markets is still acceptable. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market experienced a significant decline in prices due to multiple negative factors. Affected by the continuous weak demand during the traditional off-season, the market situation has taken a sharp downturn, and prices have been falling all the way. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 7100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% from 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.
The core pressure of the current market downturn mainly comes from the expected increase in supply side and the change in market sentiment. Specifically, the production facilities that were previously shut down are gradually resuming operations, and the expected increase in supply in Shandong has gradually become a reality; At the same time, the subsequent new supply in southern China is also about to be released. These factors collectively exacerbate the market’s concerns about oversupply, leading to a significant bearish sentiment in the overall market.
Recently, the operating rate of the acrylic acid industry has shown structural fluctuations. The main reason is that the equipment in Shandong region maintains high load operation, which promotes the increase of the national average comprehensive load; However, the East China region was affected by a power failure at the Pinghu Satellite Chemical Base (with an acrylic acid production capacity of 680000 tons per year), resulting in an unexpected short shutdown and slow recovery of the equipment, leading to a significant decrease in regional load. Despite the coexistence of multiple device startups and shutdowns, the overall operating rate of the industry still recorded a slight increase.
The increase in supply, especially the release of new production capacity in Shandong, and the slowdown in downstream consumption have created a scissors gap, intensifying the pressure of supply-demand imbalance and spreading bearish sentiment in the market. It is worth noting that the oxidation device synchronized with the satellite chemical Pinghu base malfunctioned, unexpectedly causing a shortage of spot supply in the region and partially buffering the downward trend; The decline rate of spot prices in East China has slowed down, and enterprise auction transactions have slightly rebounded. The acid price has temporarily stabilized in the range of 6800-7000 yuan/ton; The fault in East China is a force majeure disturbance, and there is a definite expectation of increased production in Shandong/South China. If a 300000 ton new plant in South China is about to be put into operation, it will continue to suppress the market, and the weak market situation in the medium and long term is difficult to change.
The significant decline in the price of acrylic acid has led to a significant narrowing of the industry’s profit margin, and all previous gains have been reversed. This round of decline has also been transmitted downstream, with the profit of mainstream product butyl acrylate shrinking synchronously. The root cause is the decline in the price of raw material acrylic acid and the weak trend of another raw material n-butanol.
The future market is expected to show a wide range of fluctuations. The driving factors are: the relief of short-term shutdowns in East China on the supply side, the fading of positive news, the increase in production brought by the resumption of production in South China, the downstream purchasing willingness and pace on the demand side, and the market sentiment and trading mentality of traders. The current supply side is bearish for the recovery of East China and the possibility of increased growth in South China, which may exacerbate market bearish sentiment. The risk of price decline still exists. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor factory price guidance and downstream actual procurement trends.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 14th to July 21st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9166 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.55% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently, boosting market sentiment. During the week, mainstream refineries in China generally transacted at a premium, further strengthening market sentiment and causing market prices to continue to rise. The demand side has shown stable performance recently and urgently needs to replenish inventory. Boosted by favorable supply, the butadiene market rose this week.
On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East has eased compared to before. As a result of this news, the international oil market trend has declined; On the other hand, the market’s concerns about the US tariff negotiations have eased to some extent, and major institutions have a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remains weak. As of July 18th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $66.05 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $69.28 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9400 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the butadiene rubber market has been fluctuating downward recently, with slight fluctuations in the Shunding rubber market in East China. Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, market transactions are mainly small orders, and individual offers from spot market merchants have slightly increased. As of July 18th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11750-12000 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600~11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, there have been fewer ship arrivals in the East China region recently, and the market expects a slightly tight supply. From the demand side, the overall downstream demand is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the supply side of the butadiene market will be supported by favorable conditions, with a focus on stable, moderate, and strong operations.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (7.14-18), with prices rising within the week and then falling back. As the weekend approached, prices basically returned to the level at the beginning of the week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4731 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.04% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, most PVC manufacturers maintained price stability, with some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and the futures market fluctuating repeatedly, making it difficult to maintain a long-term strong pattern. After the PVC price rose at the beginning of the week, it stopped rising and stabilized, with a weak price and a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4700-4850 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market was sluggish this week, and the price did not continue to decline this week. The price has stabilized, and according to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation this week was 0. But there has still been a nearly 1% decline since July. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is average, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates and average demand. The supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 7th to 11th, MTBE prices first rose from 4957 yuan/ton and then fell to 4965 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.15% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.03%. The domestic MTBE market is weakly consolidating, with prices operating in a low range. The market experienced a significant decline in the early part of the week, mainly due to the increase in resource supply and the weak trend of crude oil, with manufacturers offering discounts for shipments. At present, the operating profit of the equipment is relatively high, the resource supply is abundant, and the substantial positive demand is limited. However, the domestic MTBE market maintains a weak operating trend.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the increased instability in the Middle East caused by the Houthi armed attack on Red Sea ships. In addition, market concerns about US tariffs have weakened, and the traditional peak consumption season in the United States is still ongoing, providing support for oil prices. As of July 10th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $68.64 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international oil prices may fall, and the expected retail price limit for refined oil products in this round will be lowered. Therefore, the news will have a certain negative impact on the oil market. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Resource supply will further increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 10th, the Asian MTBE market closed at $8.53/ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $663.79-665.79/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $18.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $898.49-898.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $10.80 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $715.19-715.55 per ton (201.94-202.04 cents per gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost pressure remains significant. The supply of resources will further increase. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market situation may continue to be weak.

The acrylic acid market continues to weaken
The current acrylic acid market continues its downward trend. As of July 15th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% compared to the beginning of this month (7266.67 yuan/ton). The market is showing a situation of oversupply. With the continuous increase in supply, downstream factories are mainly digesting contract sources, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment is strong, leading to a continuous fluctuation and downward shift in the focus of market negotiations.
Differentiation of ester market performance
In terms of acrylic ester products, there is a clear differentiation in market performance. The average market price of methyl acrylate remained at 8800-8900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; Ethyl acrylate remains stable, with a market average price of around 10300-10400 yuan/ton. In contrast, the market performance of butyl acrylate is relatively weak, with an average price drop of 25 yuan/ton to 7650 yuan/ton. Holders of goods can adjust their quotes flexibly, but terminal procurement is cautious, and the actual transaction focus is relatively weak. The market for isooctyl acrylate remains stable, with an average price of 8800-8900 yuan/ton.
Lotion and MAA markets remain stable
Among other related products, the average market price of acrylic pure acrylic lotion is stable at 4800~5800 yuan/ton, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. The average market price of methyl acrylic acid is 10600 yuan/ton, with prices fluctuating between 10800-11000 yuan/ton in mainstream regions. Due to insufficient follow-up of downstream terminal demand, the market trading atmosphere is slightly sluggish, and many holders adopt a quoting strategy that follows the market trend.
Outlook for the future: weak consolidation as the main focus
The acrylic acid market is expected to continue to operate weakly. Supplier quotations tend to be flexible, end users tend to seek low-priced sources, and market negotiations tend to focus on the low-end. The butyl acrylate market may maintain a consolidation trend, and downstream users are cautious in purchasing, mainly focusing on digesting contracts or existing inventory. The actual transaction price may remain stable. It is expected that the acrylic acid market in East China will continue to operate weakly in the short term, while the butyl acrylate market may maintain a consolidation pattern.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from July 14 to July 7, 2025. On July 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5560 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%. The toluene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations has fallen. The recent shipment situation in Shandong region is not good, and the listing price was significantly reduced at the beginning of last week. With the decrease in prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market has improved significantly, and refinery shipments have rebounded. The demand in the oil blending industry is still acceptable, while others are weak. The downstream consumption situation in East and South China has remained lukewarm, with a lack of demand to boost the weak market situation.
Cost aspect: The international crude oil market has mainly fluctuated within the range of this cycle, with frequent fluctuations and limited impact on downstream markets. Market influencing factors have returned to the supply and demand side. As of July 11th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.45 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $70.36 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 14th, East China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5650-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On July 14th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable, and sales are normal. The price remains unchanged compared to July 7th. As of July 11th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $811-813/ton FOB Korea and $836-838/ton CFR China, a decrease of $4/ton from July 4th.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is volatile, with significant fluctuations and insufficient guidance for the market. Market influencing factors are returning to the supply and demand side. The recent performance of the supply side has been relatively stable, with no significant positive factors. The demand side has been relatively rigid in the near future, while the demand in the oil blending industry is still acceptable, and other aspects are relatively stable. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is relatively weak, and it is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. The focus will be on the impact of downstream demand changes on the spot market.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 25300 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.93% compared to the same period last year. On July 10th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 88.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.79% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 50.66% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has remained stable, with a reference price of 25500-26500 yuan/ton for spot bromine production in Shandong region. Due to environmental policies, some enterprises have not fully resumed production. Most manufacturers focus on stabilizing prices, while downstream enterprises prioritize urgent needs. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have fallen, with an average market price of 2321 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2304.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.72% and an increase of 78.17% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is generally average.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain stable. Bromine prices are expected to remain stable this week, while downstream purchases will be made as needed. Bromine enterprises focus on stabilizing prices. It is expected that bromine will continue to consolidate and operate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has shown a clear rebound trend recently. As of July 9th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate trading society was 62600 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month and down 35.6% from the same period last year; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 60966 yuan/ton, up 2.52% from the beginning of the month and down 35% from the same period last year.
Obvious fluctuation signal appears on the supply side
Since July, some high cost enterprises have actively adjusted their production pace, such as the online rumor that a lithium salt factory in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for two months, which is expected to affect monthly production of about 1000 tons. In the first quarter of this year, approximately 3 to 4 mines in Australia reduced production, including Pilbara
The closure of the mine resulted in a 6-7 point decrease in lithium concentrate in the first and second quarters compared to the previous quarter, with some mines experiencing a decline in grade, such as Greenbushes, which experienced a 0.1 point decrease in grade compared to the previous quarter, leading to an average cost increase of 24%. The strong upward trend in mining prices provides some support for lithium ore prices.
Downstream demand remains stable
The production of the power end fell in July. Some battery companies adjust their production plans based on market demand and their own inventory situation, resulting in limited incremental demand for lithium carbonate. However, with the continuous development of the new energy vehicle market, there is still room for growth in the demand for lithium carbonate in the long run.
Energy storage demand remains strong
Although the pace of energy storage project construction has slowed down due to the cancellation of mandatory allocation policies domestically, in the long run, the domestic energy storage market still has great potential for development.
Due to changes in export policies, the demand for overseas energy storage has brought uncertainty to the demand for lithium carbonate.
Policy favorable factors
Domestic policy: The General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on June 23 to organize and carry out the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season (July to December) in thousands of counties and towns, requiring the implementation of the policy of exchanging old cars for new ones. The People’s Bank of China and other six departments jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption on June 24, encouraging financial institutions to carry out auto loan business, and appropriately reducing and remitting the liquidated damages arising from the early settlement of loans in the process of replacing old cars with new ones. These policies aim to stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles and have a potential driving effect on the demand for lithium carbonate, but in the short term, the policy effect has not yet been fully reflected in the market.
Overseas policy: The extension of US tariff exemptions has to some extent supported the trend of energy storage competing for exports, which is favorable for the price of lithium carbonate. However, policy changes such as the US presidential election and the traceability requirements of the EU’s new battery law may disrupt demand. If the Trump administration suspends green energy subsidies and imposes tariffs, it will have a negative impact on the prospects of the US lithium battery market.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market still faces many uncertainties. If prices continue to rise, it may stimulate enterprises to resume production and invest in new production capacity, and the supply side will once again face incremental growth. In the short term, there is still a downward risk in lithium carbonate prices, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.