According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 10th to 14th, the domestic BDO price was adjusted to 7442 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.28%. There are many restarts in terms of equipment, and the support from the supply side has weakened. But the industry has been suffering long-term losses, and the mentality of stabilizing the market still exists among suppliers. Downstream demand has increased, but under cost pressure, contracts are being followed up, and spot purchases are light and negotiated. The intensifying supply-demand game makes it difficult for the market center of gravity to fluctuate.
In terms of supply and equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased to around 56%, and the supply of goods has increased, exacerbating the cautious wait-and-see attitude of industry players. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The price of raw material blue charcoal has been raised by 60 yuan/ton, further increasing the loss pressure on calcium carbide enterprises. Under cost pressure, the increase in maintenance equipment has led to a narrow decline in supply, and the destocking performance in the production area market is obvious. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is weak and consolidating. As of 10:00 am on November 14th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively weak, and the cost of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the demand side, with the restart of maintenance equipment, the main downstream PTMEG industry has also increased its negative operation, while other downstream loads have remained stable, resulting in an overall increase in demand side consumption. However, downstream industries face significant loss pressure, with multiple parties holding contracts to follow suit, and spot purchases being light and negotiated. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the supply side will experience a slight reduction in supply due to equipment maintenance in Sichuan. There is no significant change in downstream industry demand, and it is necessary to follow up on essential needs but negotiate accordingly. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak and stable.