China’s crude oil production has fallen three times in a row.

Influenced by resource endowment conditions, poor economic benefits of high-cost resources under low oil prices and insufficient upstream investment, China’s crude oil output in 2018 is expected to be 189 million tons, down 1.3% year on year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year. For the first time, the external dependence of crude oil has broken through 70%, rising to 70.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the previous year.

On January 16, the Institute of Economic and Technological Research of China Petroleum Group released the above data at the press conference of the “Development Report of the Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry 2018″ (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”).

Since the domestic crude oil output fell below 200 million tons in 2016, it has been declining for three consecutive years. In 2016 and 2017, domestic crude oil production was 199 million tons and 191 million tons respectively.

Due to the decline of crude oil production and the rapid growth of refining capacity, the net import of domestic crude oil continued to grow in 2018, with a net import of 460 million tons, an increase of 10.9% over the previous year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous year.

According to the report, domestic crude oil production is expected to reach 190 million tons in 2019, an increase of 0.02% over the same period last year.

In addition to the gradual warming of international oil prices, policy-driven is also one of the reasons for China’s crude oil production growth. In 2018, the State Council put forward in “Some Opinions on Promoting the Coordination and Stable Development of Natural Gas”, that oil and gas enterprises should increase the investment of domestic exploration and development funds and workload in an all-round way to ensure the completion of the objectives and tasks of national planning and deployment.

At the end of last year, new oil and gas discoveries were announced in Xinjiang Oilfield and Southwest Oilfield of PetroChina. Among them, the crude oil production plan of Mahu Oil Area in Xinjiang Oilfield has increased from 940,000 tons in 2018 to 3,000,000 tons in 2021, and will reach 5 million tons in 2025 with stable production for six years.

On Dec. 15, 2018, Shatan Well 1 in Shawan Sag, Junggar Basin, Xinjiang Oilfield, obtained high-yield industrial oil flow. According to Interface News, the daily oil production of 2.5 mm nozzle is stable at more than 20 cubic meters.

PetroChina indicated that the Shawan depression is expected to become another area of increasing reserves and production scale after the Mahu depression.

On December 16 last year, PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company announced that Yongxuan 1 well, located in Zhouxiang, Janyang City, Sichuan Province, had drilled high-yielding gas at the bottom of volcanic rocks. At present, the natural preliminary test of natural gas production has reached 225,000 cubic meters per day, which indicates that a new atmospheric region will emerge in this area.

In addition, PetroChina’s dependence on foreign countries is approaching 70%. According to the report, the apparent consumption of domestic oil in 2018 topped 600 million tons, reaching 625 million tons, an increase of 7%. The net import of petroleum in the whole year was about 440 million tons, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and the degree of dependence on foreign oil reached 69.8%.

In view of the difference between crude oil external dependence and petroleum external dependence, Wang Lining, Director Engineer of the Institute of Petroleum Market Research, Institute of Economic and Technological Research, China Petroleum Group, explained that the former is the import of domestic crude oil divided by the total consumption of crude oil (i.e., crude oil import plus domestic crude oil output), and the latter is the import of domestic petroleum products divided by the total consumption of petroleum (i.e., crude oil Net oil import.

Petroleum refers to the general term of oil, including crude oil and various products in a broad sense.

The report points out that the degree of oil dependence is related to the security of energy supply, but it is not causal. The safety of oil supply is generally affected by the stability of import sources, the safety of corridors and the level of reserves. At present, China has established mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation with most resource countries. In a long period of time, it is unlikely that China will encounter the embargo imposed by resource countries.

“As long as we increase domestic oil and gas exploration and development, ensure the diversification of import sources and channels, improve reserve capacity and safeguard channel safety, high external dependence will not necessarily lead to supply crisis.” According to the report.

In 2018, domestic demand and supply of refined oil maintained a low growth rate. The report estimates that crude oil processing will break through 600 million tons for the first time in 2018, reaching 606 million tons, an increase of 6.7% over the same period of last year, and the annual output of refined oil will reach 365 million tons, an increase of 1.8% over the same period of last year. The net export volume of refined oil will break through the 40 million tons mark for the first time, reaching 40.9 million tons, an increase of 12.4% over the same period last year.

On January 16, the closing price of phenol Market in Europe was stable, with the latest offer of Euro 1026-1030 per ton.

In January 16th, the U.S. Gulf phenol market closed stable, the latest offer is $1088-1108 / ton, FOB us gulf.

In January 16th the United States Gulf acetone market closing price stability, the price is 738-762 dollars / ton, FOB us gulf.

The closing price of p-xylene in Europe rose $1.5 per ton on January 14, closing at $971-973 per ton FOB Rotterdam.

On Jan. 14, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by US$1 per ton. The closing price was US$1051-1053 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1071-1073 per ton CFR in China.

Products: This week, the price of domestic agricultural ammonium chloride runs smoothly: the mainstream quotation of agricultural ammonium dry ammonium varies from 740 to 760 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation of wet ammonium is 620 to 660 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream liquid ammonia is running smoothly this week, which is affected by environmental protection control and gas limitation in the upstream of liquid ammonia. For the rising price of raw materials in the upstream, ammonium chloride will cause serious shortage of start-up rate in the later stage. Affected by environmental protection and gas limitation, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. Urea and ammonium chloride are both nitrogen fertilizers. They are replaceable before the second one. Affected by the sales of compound fertilizers in winter this year, the price of urea in nitrogen fertilizer series is declining. The price of ammonium chloride is affected to a certain extent, and the price of ammonium chloride may fall.

Prediction: Ammonium chloride market atmosphere is weak now, the start-up rate of manufacturers is low, orders are few, downstream manufacturers have a certain impact. The pending orders are generally executed, the new orders are light or even stagnant, and the downstream forward order delivery progress is slow. Therefore, it is anticipated that the market price will increase again with limited contact force. In the short run, enterprises will also be mainly stable, and may fall in part.

On January 9, the PX commodity index was 64.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.72% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 42.26% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Unit has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit has been in shutdown. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is less than 70%. The closing price of PX plant in Asia increased by 38 US dollars/ton on Jan. 9. The closing price was US$1022-1024/ton FOB in Korea and US$1042-1044/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of PX plant in China needed to be imported. The rise of foreign price has a positive impact on domestic market price of paraxylene, and the intra-site price maintained 8,100 yuan/ton.

On January 9, the price of WTI crude oil in February rose sharply to $52.36 per barrel, an increase of $2.58. The price of Brent crude oil in March rose to $61.44 per barrel, an increase of $2.72. The closing price of crude oil rose slightly, which supported the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene was stable temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has risen, downstream PTA market has risen, PTA price has recently risen slightly. The average price of offer in East China is raised near 6400-6500 yuan/ton. As of the 9th day, domestic PTA start-up rate is about 75%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 84%. In addition, the upstream production and marketing market is general, PTA market price is declining, and the price of PX market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

On January 7, China’s urea wholesale price index (CNPI) was 213.99.

The ring fell 25.14 points, or 1.23%.

It rose 26.96 points, or 1.36% over the same period last year.

The biki period rose 150.74 points, or 8.09%.

On January 7, China’s urea retail price index (CNRI) was 2144.91.

The ring fell 14.41 points, or 0.67%.

It rose 66.44 points, or 3.20% over the same period last year.

Biki rose 239.95 points, or 12.60%.

On January 7, the wholesale price index (CPPI) of diammonium phosphate in China was 2931.11.

The ring-to-ring ratio fell 0.51 points, or 0.02%.

It rose 98.17 points, or 3.47% over the same period last year.

The Biki period fell 290.66 points, or 9.02%.

The retail price index (CPRI) of diammonium phosphate in China on January 7 was 3031.22.

The ring fell 5.03 points, or 0.17%.

It rose 77.59 points, or 2.63% over the same period last year.

The Biki period fell 190.55 points, or 5.91%.

The wholesale price index (CKPI) of potassium chloride in China on January 7 was 2326.98.

Ring up 0.36 points, an increase of 0.02%;

A year-on-year increase of 269.04 points, an increase of 13.07%;

The biki period fell 963.61 points, or 29.28%.

On January 7, China’s Composite Fertilizer Wholesale Price Index (CFCI) was 2266.53.

The ring fell 15.52 points, or 0.68%.

A year-on-year increase of 80.26 points, an increase of 3.67%;

The Biki period fell 112.31 points, or 4.72%.

On January 7, the retail price index (CCRI) of compound fertilizers in China was 2518.55.

Ring up 3.29 points, an increase of 0.13%;

It rose 91.70 points, or 3.78 percent, over the same period last year.

The biki period rose 71.84 points, or 2.94%.

On January 7, China’s Urea Export Price Index (CNEI) was 1967.95.

The ring fell 10.97 points, or 0.55%.

It rose by 24.34 points, or 1.25% over the same period last year.

Biki rose 108.95 points, or 5.86%.

Dubai, Jan. 4, Reuters reported that Iraq said on Friday that it was committed to the OPEC + cut production agreement and would maintain a daily output of 4.533 million barrels in the first half of 2019.

In a statement, Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said he had instructed oil officials to take urgent measures to comply with the reduction policy.

The statement added: “The minister reiterated the ministry’s commitment to maintain national oil production at an average of 4.533 million barrels per day over the next six months.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-member countries, an alliance called OPEC+agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2019. OPEC cut its share by 800,000 barrels per day.

In December 2018, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-member countries agreed to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2019. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut production by 800,000 barrels a day.