According to the latest data of Korean Customs, Korea imported 8.2519 million tons of power coal (bituminous coal and sub-bituminous coal) in February, 10.83% less than 9.2546 million tons imported in the same period last year and 23.49% less than 10.7849 million tons imported in January, the lowest since June last year.

Bituminous coal

In February, Korea imported 802.98 million tons of bituminous coal, down 7.95% and 24.48% respectively from the same ring.

In terms of different countries, South Korea imports the most bituminous coal from Australia, which is 301.27 million tons, up 45.07% year-on-year, but down 26.71% year-on-year.

In the same month, South Korea ranked second in imports of bituminous coal from Indonesia, with 26875,000 tons, an increase of 3.88% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 32.24% annually.

In February, South Korea’s bituminous coal imports from Russia ranked third, at 10111,000 tons, down 21.73% year-on-year and 10.66% year-on-year.

South Korean bituminous coal imports in the same month amounted to $671 million, down 26.9% from the previous month. Based on this, the average import price of bituminous coal in that month is estimated to be 83.6 US dollars per ton, down 5.41% from 88.39 US dollars per ton in the same period last year and 3.2% from 86.37 US dollars per ton in the previous month.

Sub bituminous coal

In February, South Korea imported 2221,000 tons of sub-bituminous coal, down 58.23% year-on-year and up 46.21% year-on-year. South Korea imported bituminous coal from Indonesia that month.

In February, South Korea imported 14.571 million US dollars of sub-bituminous coal, an increase of 74% over last month’s imports. Based on this, the average import price of bituminous coal in that month was US$65.6 per ton, down 3.36% from US$67.88 per ton in the same period last year, and up 19.03% from US$55.1 per ton in January.

anthracite

In February, South Korea imported 7819,000 tons of anthracite, an increase of 33.98% over the same period last year and an increase of 45.39% annually.

On March 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 12th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2100 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 13th day, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, up to 13th day, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3143.33 yuan/ton. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream market is not good. They expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period will decrease slightly.

Elliott Abrams, the chief envoy of the United States to Venezuela, said the United States was urging India to stop buying Venezuelan oil. Venezuelan oil is the main source of revenue for the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government. Meanwhile, the Trump administration this week threatened to impose more sanctions on Venezuela to cut off Maduro’s financial lifeline.

Elliott Abrams said that instead of helping the regime, you should stand by the Venezuelan people. The Trump government has conveyed the same message to other governments and has made similar views to foreign banks and private enterprises that have business with the Maduro government.

Under pressure from India, the United States and its regional allies supporting Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido threatened to impose more sanctions to cut off Maduro’s government’s revenue stream and force him to step down.

Washington regards Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate leader, imposes sanctions on the country’s oil industry, and announces asset freezes and travel bans on senior Venezuelan government officials.

The Indian market is crucial to Venezuela’s economy because historically, India has been the second largest cash payment customer for crude oil in the OPEC country, after the United States. By imposing sanctions on Maduro, the United States handed over most of its revenue to Guaido.

Oil shipments to China, another major importer of Venezuela, cannot generate cash because they will be used to repay billions of dollars in loans from the Chinese government to the Venezuelan government.

The talks on Venezuela came as trade tensions between the United States and India intensified and the United States urged India to stop buying Iranian oil.

The United States plans to end preferential trade treatment with India. This preferential treatment allows duty-free imports of $5.6 billion worth of goods exported by India to the United States.

U.S. sanctions usually prevent U.S. companies from doing business with specific foreign governments or companies.

Seeking to prevent India from buying Venezuelan crude oil will be part of the so-called “secondary sanctions” strategy. In this strategy, Washington will punish companies that are not in the United States.

This strategy, and even the threat of using it, is crucial in Washington’s campaign to cut off pressure on Iran’s fiscal revenues. But it has also attracted criticism from foreign governments that the United States should not impose its policy decisions on companies in other countries.

John Bolton, the U.S. national security adviser, warned foreign banks this week that they might be subject to U.S. sanctions for hiding Venezuelan assets.

An Indian official said that the United States and India would hold diplomatic consultations in Washington next week to discuss whether India would agree to stop buying Venezuelan oil. He added that India “knows very well the position of the United States on Venezuela”.

Venezuela’s oil minister, Manuel Quevedo, attended a meeting in New Delhi in mid-February to seek to “double” its crude oil exports to India and increase Venezuela’s imports of refined products from India. He also said he was open to barter payments.

But Venezuela’s exports to India have remained relatively stable this month since the Trump government imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company (PDVSA), which means Venezuela’s exports to India are far from enough to offset the decline in U.S. exports.

According to Refinitiv Eikon, Venezuela exported 297,000 barrels of crude oil directly to India every day in February, excluding crude oil first shipped to other ports such as Singapore or Rotterdam. India imported 342,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil in January, compared with an average of 340,000 barrels per day last year. This is far below India’s average daily imports of more than 400,000 barrels in the past, and is not enough to compensate for the drop in February imports from more than 500,000 barrels before the sanctions to 104,800 barrels.

India is also under pressure from members of the two major U.S. political parties. Republican Senator Marco Rubio said on Twitter February 13 that the purchase of Venezuelan oil by Reliance Petroleum, an Indian refiner, would undermine Guaido’s “legitimate government” and “lead to calls for a second sanction against Reliance Petroleum of India”.

Albio Sires, chairman of the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee of the United States House of Representatives, wrote to the Indian Ambassador to Washington on February 12, expressing concern that Venezuela “tried to bypass the efforts of the United States, hold Maduro accountable and engage with one of our strongest partners in the process”.

In an interview at the end of February, Democrat Sires said: “We will start lobbying to see if India can stop buying oil from Venezuela.

Data show that Venezuelan oil accounted for only 4.2% of India’s total oil imports in January. Mooses Rendon of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said Venezuela, like other major buyers such as Russia, was not a priority for India’s foreign policy.

“The United States has enough influence to get India out of its relationship with Venezuela,” Rendon said. That’s why America’s role here is crucial. ”

On March 10, the PX commodity index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 8, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 8 US dollars per ton. The closing price is US$1096-1098 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1115-11177 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 8, the price of WTI crude oil in April fell to $56.07 per barrel, a decline of $0.59. Brent crude oil in May fell to $65.74 per barrel, a decline of $0.56. The price of crude oil slightly declined, which had little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene was stable. Recently, the textile industry has risen slightly. PTA prices have risen on the 11th. The average offer price in East China is raised near 6700-6900 yuan/ton. As of the 8th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%. In addition, the hobby sales rate has risen. The PTA market price has risen, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Commodity Name: Acetone

Market Price (March 11, East China):3500 yuan/ton

The main points of analysis: Last week, the domestic acetone market was weak, the overall market changed little, the market turnover was general, and the supply side was relatively adequate. The stock of acetone port in East China was 67,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from February 25, including 45,000 tons in West China and 22,000 tons in Hengyang. However, the downstream start-up was limited, and the upstream suppliers were low-priced frequently. Up to now, the price around Yanshan is more than 3600 yuan/ton, the offer price in East China is 3500 yuan/ton, and that in South China is 3600 yuan/ton. Business associations expect that the short-term market consolidation of acetone will be dominated by a discussion of about 3500 yuan per ton of acetone in East China.

Battery Terminal Market

According to the statistics of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February 2019, China’s power battery loading volume totaled 2.24GWh, an increase of 118.03% year on year, and a decrease of 54.81% year on year. Among them, the three-element battery loading was 1.85GWh, up 178.92% year-on-year, with a decrease of 46.47%. The lithium iron phosphate battery loading was 0.32GWh, down 4.78% year-on-year and 77.30% year-on-year. The lithium manganate battery loading was 0.04GWh, up 2163.49% year-on-year, up 19.30% year-on-year, and the lithium titanate battery loading was 0.03GWh, up 5.30% year-on-year, down 49.30% year-on-year.

In terms of power battery enterprises, in February 2019, there were 35 power battery enterprises in China’s new energy automobile market, 15 fewer than in January. The top three, the top five and the top 10 power battery enterprises have 1.64 GWh, 1.81 GWh and 2.06 GWh respectively, accounting for 73.16%, 80.82% and 91.95% of the total load respectively.

Upstream raw material price

Cobalt: The domestic cobalt price declines sharply, the volume of cobalt sulphate price increases below 60,000, and the price of cobalt chloride bottoms at 65,000. Affected by the downstream demand downturn, the price has further downward pressure.

Lithium salt: There is polarization in the lithium carbonate market. For large lithium salt factories, brand awareness and product quality stability rank first, orders are abundant and stocks are small, and prices remain firm. The lithium salt factories of other small and medium-sized enterprises tend to seize the market for themselves through price advantage. Therefore, the trading range of lithium carbonate is enlarged. Lithium hydroxide transaction is less, the domestic market demand is light. With the increase of trading volume, its price is expected to fall further.

Lithium manganate: Sales of capacity type and power type are not good. Poor sales of capacity lithium manganate are mainly due to overcapacity and near saturation of downstream demand. The demand for power lithium manganate is very small, the price of ternary materials is lower, and the doping amount of power lithium manganate is reduced.

Lithium Ferrophosphate: The supply of long orders is stable, the spot transaction is scarce, and the price is 5,000 yuan/ton lower than before. Ternary orders have remained stable and show no significant growth for the time being. Spot trading price of lithium cobalt acid declined with the price of raw materials. News: Lubon Industry Co., Ltd. announced that according to the company’s strategic master plan for the capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium battery cathode materials, through its wholly-owned subsidiary,  it has implemented the projects of 10,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and 5,000 tons of ternary cathode materials annually.

According to Bloomberg, Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mining said copper production in January fell by 12.6% to 20217 tons, the lowest since July last year.

But Peru’s largest mine, Freeport’s Cerro Verde, has increased production by 10.1% to 43,594 tons. MMG’s Las Bambas mine produces 41692 tons of copper, up 31.4% from the same period last year. Gold production fell 9.4% to 10,463 kg from January last year. Zinc mineral production fell by 7.8% to 10,1604 tons.

Mining investment increased 48% year on year to $335 million. Anglo-American Resources Group, Antapaccay and Marlborore, owned by Glencore, ranked first. Mining employment was flat at 194,030 last year, but fell by 5.4% from last month.

In 2018, China’s aluminium industry deepened the structural reform of the supply side, strictly controlled the new capacity of electrolytic aluminium, promoted the replacement of the capacity of electrolytic aluminium, and the overall operation of the industry was stable. However, the impact of trade frictions gradually emerged, production costs continued to rise, industry benefits declined, and the overall development situation was not optimistic. First, the output increased year on year, and the growth rate of aluminium materials decreased. In 2018, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminium and aluminium materials reached 72.53 million tons, 35.8 million tons and 45.54 million tons, respectively, increasing by 9.9%, 7.4% and 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Considering the adjustment of statistical data, the output growth rate of electrolytic aluminium increased by 5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Due to the impact of trade frictions and the low domestic consumption, the growth rate of aluminium production fell by 7 percentage points last year.

Second, prices have fallen, costs have risen and benefits have declined significantly. In 2018, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminium was 14262 yuan/ton, down 1.8% year on year. Due to environmental protection rectification, bauxite prices continued to rise, coal prices rose, energy saving and emission reduction costs of enterprises increased, the comprehensive production cost of electrolytic aluminium increased significantly year on year. In 2018, the profit of the aluminium industry was 37.2 billion yuan, down 40% from the same period last year. Among them, the profit of aluminium mining and processing is 700 million yuan, up 19.6% from the same period last year; the profit of aluminium smelting and aluminium processing industry is 112 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan, down 54.6% and 31.4% respectively.

Third, capacity replacement has been accelerating and industrial structure has been further optimized. Since the issuance of Notice on Capacity Replacement of Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprises through Mergers and Restructuring (No. 12, 2018), more than 4 million tons of capacity of electrolytic aluminium have been replaced across provinces. Among them, more than 3 million tons of capacity have been transferred to energy-rich areas such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. While maintaining strict control over the high-pressure situation of capacity of electrolytic aluminium, the industrial structure of electrolytic aluminium has been continuously improving. Change.

Fourthly, the export of aluminium materials has increased substantially, and the international trade environment is not optimistic. Influenced by the fluctuation of the price difference of aluminium materials at home and abroad and the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, China’s aluminium exports in 2018 amounted to 5.23 million tons, an increase of 23.4% over the same period last year. The suspension of production at Heidelou Alumina Plant in Brazil has resulted in a shortage of alumina supply overseas, with China exporting 950,000 tons of alumina annually. China Bauxite Group, Weiqiao and other overseas bauxite resources development projects continued to advance. The chain reaction of trade frictions such as the United States, the European Union, Mexico and Vietnam is highlighted. The external development environment is becoming increasingly severe. The future export of aluminium materials will face a severe situation.

In 2019, the environment at home and abroad is becoming more and more complex, the deep impact of trade friction is about to emerge, the downstream consumption situation is not optimistic, and the downward pressure of the aluminum industry is still large. Our department will continue to deepen the structural reform of the supply side, continue to unite with relevant parties to maintain a high-pressure situation of strictly controlling the new capacity of electrolytic aluminium, strictly implement the policy of replacing the capacity of electrolytic aluminium, study and establish a long-term mechanism of resolving excess capacity by means of market-oriented legalization, actively expand the application of aluminium, and guide the high-quality development of the aluminium industry.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price trend of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in China continued to diverge in late February 2019. The details are as follows.

In late February, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) was 4568.2 yuan/ton, up 232.2 yuan/ton, or 5.4% over the previous period.

In late February, the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was 3886.7 yuan/ton, down 35.7 yuan/ton, or 0.9% from the previous period.

Around the Lantern Festival, snowfall prevailed in North China and rainy and snowy weather in South China. Low temperatures and downstream enterprises that resumed work in succession resulted in a short-term surge in demand for LNG. However, production of LNG factories and receiving stations decreased before and after the Lantern Festival, and inventories were low, and production was still recovering after the year, resulting in tight supply. Under the pull of supply and demand, LNG prices have risen in some areas.

However, at present, the continuous rise of LNG has caused acceptance pressure on the undertaker, the downstream conflicting sentiment is obvious, and high-price shipments gradually fade. However, the factory liquid level is very low, in the near future, it is expected that the market is still dominated by high-level consolidation. In the long run, imports are sufficient, domestic production is increasing, demand is limited after heating, and the market may fall again.

According to the monitoring of Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, on February 27, the national LNG ex-factory price index was 4451 yuan/ton, which was 381 yuan/ton higher than the status of 4070 yuan/ton on February 12, an increase of 9.4%. As of March 1, the latest trading day, the ex-factory price of LNG had fallen to 4313 yuan/ton, 138 yuan/ton lower than the price on February 27, a decrease of 3.1%.

As far as LPG is concerned, there is no obvious improvement in the overall market demand. The international crude oil market continues to rise under the favorable conditions, which gives LPG a certain price support, while adequate supply also restrains the upward price of LPG.

The rising price of lithium and cobalt has been declining since 2018. In 2018, however, new energy vehicles are growing against the trend. Whether the cobalt and lithium prices of the “rapid development” of new energy vehicles can be “two degrees” or not depends on the development trend of the downstream new energy vehicles besides the external factors.

The price of lithium carbonate, which has risen since 2015, has fallen steadily since 2018. According to business association data, on February 24, 2019, the comprehensive price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 73,000 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day’s data, down 5.19% from February 15. In terms of cobalt price, the price of cobalt trioxide has been rising steadily since 2016, and has exceeded 300,000 yuan per ton by the end of March 2017. Since 2018, MB UK Metals reported that cobalt prices have fallen steadily. Data show that on February 20, 2019, MB UK Metals reported cobalt prices of $22.5 per pound, down 8.35% from February 15.

Lithium and cobalt are important raw materials in new energy batteries, and they are at the top of the new energy industry chain. Lithium deposits are mainly distributed in South America, North America and Asia. According to data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2017, the global lithium resources are about 47 million tons and the proven reserves are about 14 million tons. Among the proven lithium reserves, Bolivia and Argentina rank first in lithium resources, while China ranks fourth. The distribution of cobalt in the world is uneven, and the supply of cobalt in Congo (Kinshasa), the main mineral area in the world, is mainly composed of Mines owned by large mining enterprises and surface hand mining. With the decline of cobalt price, global mining and surface manual mining profits have been compressed. According to Huatai Securities, on February 8, 2019, the gross profit margin of Congo Kingdom hand mining decreased from 320,000 yuan/ton in April 2018 to 140,000 yuan/ton.

Market analysts believe that the continued decline in lithium and cobalt prices is due to excess production capacity caused by previous excessive mining, resulting in a market of supply exceeding demand. At present, cobalt and lithium prices are still in the process of bottoming.

Once upon a time, lithium and cobalt prices went up all the way. From 2015 to 2018, due to the rapid growth of the scale of new energy vehicles, orders for power batteries increased dramatically, driving the price of lithium and cobalt soaring. The price index of lithium carbonate has been growing steadily since 2015, declining somewhat in 2017, then rising again, and the price of cobalt has also been outstanding in the period from 2015 to 2018. The continuous rise in raw material prices has led to increasing investment in new energy minerals and rapid increase in production capacity. Overcapacity has kept lithium and cobalt prices under pressure since the beginning of 2018.

Unlike the price of lithium and cobalt under pressure, the production and sales of new energy automobiles are still growing rapidly in 2018. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association on January 14 this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2018 were 1.27 million and 1.256 million respectively, up 59.9% and 61.7% respectively from the same period last year. Among them, 986,000 pure electric vehicles and 984,000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold, up 47.9% and 50.8% respectively from the same period last year; 283,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 271,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles were produced and sold, up 122% and 118% respectively from the same period last year; and 1527 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold. Globally, according to BNEF forecasts, global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 11 million by 2025, with a penetration rate of 11%. Luke Kissam, chief executive of Albemarle, a lithium producer that accounts for one-third of the world’s total production, told analysts in a recent conference call that as new capacity increases, large producers such as Albemarle, SQM and Tianqi will continue to dominate the likely oversupply market in 2019. With the increasing demand for lithium for new technologies, the market will continue to be tight in the next few years.

Whether the price of lithium and cobalt can rise rapidly again depends on the expectation of the demand for new energy vehicles in the future. According to Fortune Securities estimates, in the long run, new energy vehicles will drive demand for millions of tons of lithium carbonate and hundreds of thousands of tons of cobalt by 2030. If the new energy industry continues to grow in the future, lithium and cobalt prices are expected to return to a reasonable range.

In the short run, the lower profits of lithium and cobalt in the upstream lead to accelerated liquidation of some enterprises, and the industry will shift from excessive supply to balanced supply and demand. Huatai Securities believes that the lithium price in February 2019 has approached the industry cost, and the head enterprises still have the advantage of mastering high-quality lithium resources because of their large-scale operation. Under the neutral assumption, the domestic supply and demand pattern of cobalt in 2019-2021 will change from balance to surplus, and the price will face further downward pressure. It is expected that the excess value of the cobalt industry will reach a stage high in this year and next two years.