Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and fell in July. As of July 16, the price of zinc was 19470.00 yuan/ton, down 3.98% from 20276.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices fell by 8.55% over the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Product output statistics:

According to a recent report by Fitch Solutions, global zinc production increased by 2.1% to 13.3 million tons in 2019 from a year earlier, then to 15.8 million tons in 2028, an average growth of 2.0%. Fitch expects China’s zinc production to rise from 4.3 million tons in 2018 to 4.4 million tons in 2028, an average annual growth of 0.2%. Despite its low growth rate, China will remain the world’s largest producer of zinc. Fitch predicts that China’s position will fall from 33% of global mine production in 2018 to 28% in 2028. Overall, the global zinc mineral production has increased steadily, and the supply of zinc in the city has increased, which is bad for zinc price.

Overseas enterprises:

New Century Resources, a basic metals mining company, reported that its zinc production had reached a quarterly high in the three months to June. The company’s production of the same name project in Queensland continues to climb. From April to June, the project produced 20450 tons of zinc from 42500 tons of zinc concentrate. In the same period last year, the output of zinc concentrate was 37500 tons. Nyrstar, a metals and mining company, recently said it had delayed force majeure at Port Pine Lead and Zinc Smelter in Australia until the last week of July. Overall, the output of zinc mining enterprises has risen, the supply of zinc has increased, and the pressure of zinc price dropping in the future has increased.

Downstream demand:

According to the statistics bureau, GDP grew by 6.3% in the first half of the year. China’s GDP in the second quarter was 6.2% year-on-year, with an estimated 6.3% and a previous value of 6.4%. In the first half of the year, investment in real estate development in China increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last year, and increased by 11.2% from January to May. From January to June, urban fixed assets investment in China increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with an estimated 5.6% and a previous value of 5.6%. Macroeconomic environment performance is still acceptable, overall zinc price has a certain advantage; infrastructure, real estate and fixed investment growth, zinc market demand has increased, zinc ingot demand has a certain advantage.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business associations, believes that: on the supply side, global zinc mineral energy continues to climb, zinc supply growth, zinc market is positive; on the demand side, overall macroeconomic growth is stable, and investment in infrastructure is also warming up, which is good for zinc market demand, but macroeconomic growth is not as expected, and zinc market has insufficient momentum to rise. It is expected that the fluctuation of zinc price will remain stable in the future.

On July 15, 2019, the price of fluorine chemical industry rose and fell in a total of 1 commodities, fell in a total of 0 commodities, rose and fell in a total of 4 commodities. The main commodities on the rise were aluminium fluoride (1.68%) and stable products including trichloromethane, hydrofluoric acid, fluorite and cryolite.

On July 15, the market price trend of fluorine chemical raw materials was temporarily stable. The price of fluorite raw materials was 3150 yuan/ton. Recently, some domestic fluorite plants started to work normally. Mines and flotation plants in the field started to work normally. The supply of fluorite in the field was tight. However, the recent downstream market has risen, and the price of fluorite has been affected to rise. In the southern fluorite market, the start-up of installations is general, and the price of fluorite market in the southern region has risen. As of the 15th, the domestic price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of fluorite negotiations in Fujian is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of fluorite in Henan is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton.

Recent downstream refrigerant industry trend is general, the starting rate remains low, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general, but due to the reduction of on-site supply, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising. As of the 12th day, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the domestic starting rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. More, enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is adequate and regular. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid on the spot has improved. Some enterprises’ex-factory prices have risen slightly. Until now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton. However, people in the field reflect the near future. Hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the market for hydrofluoric acid may be temporarily stable.

Aluminum fluoride products price trend is rising, supply is normal on the market, trading market is general, Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. Aluminum fluoride ex-factory quotation 11,000 yuan/ton, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum fluoride ex-factory quotation 10,800 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. Aluminum fluoride quotation 9,800 yuan/ton, Henan Zhongse Dongfang Shaoxing Aluminum fluoride quoted 9500 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been temporarily stable. The ex-factory price of trichloromethane enterprises is around 3050 yuan/ton. The start-up rate of production is low. The 440,000 tons/year plant in Jinling, Shandong Province, has started normal operation. The 120,000 tons/year plant in Jinmao, Dongying, has been overhauled. The 220,000 tons/year plant in Luxi Chemical Industry has started 60 percent. The supply of trichloromethane production enterprises in China is relatively tight. Inventory is low.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of on-site equipment is stable and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. Generally speaking, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain turbulent in the later period.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week (7.8-7.12) domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices fell slightly. At the beginning of the week, the price was 10,675 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 10,550 yuan/ton. The overall decline was 1.17%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (7.8-7.12) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price is stable, as of July 12, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 10400 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: In June 2019, China imported 441,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, and 307.6 tons in January-June. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 7.7%.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices rose slightly this week, cis-butadiene rubber cost surface performance was stable. According to the business association monitoring, butadiene at the beginning of this week was 8423 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week was 8490 yuan/ton, with an overall slight increase of 0.80%.

Demand: According to statistics, in May 2019, domestic rubber tyre tyre output was 72.043 million, down 2.33% annually, up 0.2% year-on-year; in January-May, domestic rubber tyre output was 33.3767 million, down 2.4% year-on-year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream crude oil such as butadiene remains high, which supports the price of synthetic rubber, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber continues to be weak, forming a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber as a whole. In the later period, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will remain weak and stable.

On July 11, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 11th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Creative Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 10, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 19 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 860-862 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 879-881 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 10, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $60.43 per barrel, an increase of $2.60. Brent crude oil futures fell to $67.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.85. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased 11 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6700-6800 yuan/ton, as of 10 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 89%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 88%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price rises, the PX market price is expected to be later. Maintain shock.

1 Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic market price on July 10 was about 4500 yuan/ton, up 0.74% compared with last Wednesday (July 3). The domestic mainstream price of phosphoric acid was 4200-4900 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Phosphoric acid market is rising. At present, phosphoric acid enterprises have started construction steadily, the spot supply is tight, the stock of raw materials is urgent, the supply is difficult to find, and the holder offers high. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is closely related to the rise and fall of phosphoric acid. Under the influence of some factors such as partial shutdown of Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan yellow phosphorus enterprises, sudden drop of output and policy, the price of on-site yellow phosphorus enterprises soared, which led to the rise of phosphoric acid prices, and some enterprises suspended quotations and orders. Today, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is around 4500 yuan/ton, 85% industrial phosphoric acid of Mingli Group of Guangxi is 4750 yuan/ton, 4 900 yuan/ton of Xingfa Group of Hubei, 4 400 yuan/ton of Kanglong of Shifang of Sichuan, and 4 500 yuan/ton of Hongda of Hangxing, with little regional difference.

The price of phosphorus ore in the upstream of the industrial chain is stable, and the raw material yellow phosphorus market is rising at a high level. It is unlikely that the price will be lowered in the short term. The downstream phosphate Market has a wide supply. At present, monoammonium phosphate is mainly used as raw materials for compound fertilizers. It has been actively traded and has increased its enthusiasm for upstream phosphate procurement. The domestic demand for diammonium is light, the international market performance is relatively stable, and the goods are basically on demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts believe that the current price of yellow phosphorus soared, phosphoric acid follow the trend of volatility is obvious, the supply of goods in the late market may be tight, and prices are expected to continue to rise substantially.

On July 9, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China was temporarily stable on the 9th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 8, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 13 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 831-833 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 850-852 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 8, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.66 per barrel, an increase of $0.15. Brent crude oil futures fell to $64.11 per barrel, a decrease of $0.12. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of Brent crude oil futures is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA prices declined on the 9th. The average price of East China bid was raised near 6500-6700 yuan/ton. As of the 8th day, domestic PTA start-up rate was about 99%, polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%, and downstream production and sales rate remained high. However, PTA market prices declined, and PX market prices are expected to remain shocky in the later period. Swing.

On July 7, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 8th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was in the range of 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recent domestic nitric acid price fluctuation, as of 8 days, the market price is 1793.33 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is stable, the market performance is weak, the market turnover is still acceptable, and the quotations of most manufacturers are stable. The price quotation of manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 2850-3600 yuan/ton. The price quotation in the northwest region is around 2750-2900 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high. Normal shipment, rational purchasing of downstream manufacturers and declining price of raw materials in the upstream have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, propylene (Shandong) in China has been rising continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7669 yuan/ton per week. On Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 8,056 yuan/ton per week, with a weekly increase of 5.05%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: Recently, the price of propylene enterprises in Shandong began to rise on July 2, rising 100 yuan/ton on the 3rd and 150 yuan/ton on the 4th. Today, the price of propylene enterprises has risen 100 yuan/ton again. At present, the mainstream transaction in the market is about 7900-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is as high as 8050 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of existing refineries is low, and the shutdown devices of propylene production enterprises are too many, and the supply side has been tight.

Industry chain: upstream, this week’s international crude oil price volatility, rise and fall back to stability, propylene has little impact. On the downstream side, the market price of propylene oxide has risen this week, with a weekly increase of nearly 2%. Some factories have reduced the negative overhaul and the supply of propylene has decreased. Acrylic acid prices have remained stable throughout the week, with little impact on propylene. Polypropylene futures have continued to strengthen and spot prices have risen by more than 2.5%. However, the spot market slightly declined during the weekend, or the effect on propylene price was limited; the epichlorohydrin market rose this week, the spot supply was still tight, the low-price supply was difficult to find, the high offer of the holder, the weekly increase was close to 3.5%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene; and the butanol market rose this week. Although the start-up rate is still low, the upward pressure of propylene decreases in the later stage.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that, in general, the recent consolidation of crude oil market, polypropylene futures spot market began to stabilize, propylene oxide rose slightly, acrylic acid market remained flat, epichlorohydrin rose, butyl octanol market rose, some refineries were shut down, downstream plants also reduced production, refineries. Propylene prices are expected to consolidate at a high level in the near future, with minor fluctuations.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of mainstream refinery naphtha in China as of June 30 was 5537.50 yuan/ton, down-7.09% from 5960.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refinery naphtha in China continued to decline this month.

II. Market Analysis

International market: Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was $66.87 per barrel and at the end of the month was $66.55 per barrel, with a rise of – 0.48%. WTI crude oil at the beginning of the month was $56.59 per barrel and at the end of the month was $59.43 per barrel, with a rise of 5.02%. In June, U.S. crude oil stocks continued to decline, tensions between the United States and Iraq and optimistic expectations of Sino-US trade negotiations were the main factors leading the oil market in the near future.

On the naphtha side, the June 28-Asian naphtha cracking spread fell to a one-and-a-half week low of $19.60 a tonne on Friday, hitting a six-week high on the previous trading day, as spot market delivery was relatively quiet after earlier purchases. South Korea’s Hanhua Daodal and SK Energy purchased heavy full-fraction naphtha shipments delivered in the first half of August. Taipei Plastics also bought oil tankers of undetermined specifications delivered in August. South Korea SK Energy bought naphtha on the 24th, the spot demand was basically weak. Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) of India has offered two batches of naphtha with different paraffin content by tender closing June 26, which will be shipped in Bombay from July 8 to 10. Earlier, the company sold Shell a May 11-13 Bombay shipment at an offshore price (FOB) of about $8 per ton higher than its own pricing formula. Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings of Japan and Lichuan Naphtha Cracking Center of Korea (YNCC) finalized the shipment delivered in the first half of August. Titan, Malaysia, and CNOOC, China are seeking to lock in naphtha supply by signing 12-month contracts.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were four kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities rose, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.02%), MTBE (2.46%) and coking coal (0.82%). There are 12 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products with the first three declines are petroleum coke (-8.44%), liquefied natural gas (-7.64%) and naphtha (-7.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.07%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the rise in international crude oil prices has supported naphtha; however, terminal demand has not improved significantly, downstream demand-based procurement is dominant, the gasoline and diesel market is weak, and market sentiment is strong; refineries in mid-June are mainly de-stocked, and prices have dropped significantly. Downstream enterprises may enter the July standby period, and the market demand will increase. It is expected that naphtha refining will rebound in July. The average price of naphtha refining in July is expected to be between 5500 and 6000 yuan/ton.

On July 2, the rare earth index was 397 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.30% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 46.49% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 445,000 yuan/ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan/ton and praseodymium metal is 710,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 345,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.965 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 4.05 million yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 347,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 445,000 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.965 million yuan per ton.

In the near future, the price trend of rare earth is temporarily stable, the domestic rare earth market is generally trading, and the price trend of most commodities in the rare earth market is stable. However, in the near future, the prices of some products in the market have risen and fallen, the prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have fallen and the prices of neodymium series products have shocked in the near future, the supply in the market is normal, and the price of light rare earth has recently moved. The situation is temporarily stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell, and the market of rare earth has improved. However, the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry is general.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to remain volatile.