Price Trend
According to the data of business associations, propylene (Shandong) in China has been rising continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7669 yuan/ton per week. On Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 8,056 yuan/ton per week, with a weekly increase of 5.05%.
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II. Analytical Review
Products: Recently, the price of propylene enterprises in Shandong began to rise on July 2, rising 100 yuan/ton on the 3rd and 150 yuan/ton on the 4th. Today, the price of propylene enterprises has risen 100 yuan/ton again. At present, the mainstream transaction in the market is about 7900-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is as high as 8050 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of existing refineries is low, and the shutdown devices of propylene production enterprises are too many, and the supply side has been tight.
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Industry chain: upstream, this week’s international crude oil price volatility, rise and fall back to stability, propylene has little impact. On the downstream side, the market price of propylene oxide has risen this week, with a weekly increase of nearly 2%. Some factories have reduced the negative overhaul and the supply of propylene has decreased. Acrylic acid prices have remained stable throughout the week, with little impact on propylene. Polypropylene futures have continued to strengthen and spot prices have risen by more than 2.5%. However, the spot market slightly declined during the weekend, or the effect on propylene price was limited; the epichlorohydrin market rose this week, the spot supply was still tight, the low-price supply was difficult to find, the high offer of the holder, the weekly increase was close to 3.5%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene; and the butanol market rose this week. Although the start-up rate is still low, the upward pressure of propylene decreases in the later stage.
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3. Future Market Forecast
Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that, in general, the recent consolidation of crude oil market, polypropylene futures spot market began to stabilize, propylene oxide rose slightly, acrylic acid market remained flat, epichlorohydrin rose, butyl octanol market rose, some refineries were shut down, downstream plants also reduced production, refineries. Propylene prices are expected to consolidate at a high level in the near future, with minor fluctuations.