Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of August 15, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton, which was 2.85% lower than the previous year and 36.27% lower than the previous year. The domestic market climate for cyclohexanone has improved.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market low price reduction, factory spot pressure is not large, part of the factory quotation increase, shipment is still acceptable, solvents on demand procurement. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in cash from 8100 to 8200, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash from 8300 to 8400, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash from 8700 to 8800.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: East China Pure Benzene offer is firm. It will be delivered at 5150-5250 yuan/ton in August, negotiated at 5100-5200 yuan/ton in September and sold at 5100 yuan/ton in October. Informational factors and external market support TRADERS’high reports, but the market mentality is still acceptable, low is difficult to find.

Caprolactam: The market climate of caprolactam has improved, the US and China tariffs have released good news again, crude oil has risen, and cost support is still acceptable. The main spot price of caprolactam liquids is 12000-12200 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered at a slightly lower price. Some of the prices in the north are 11500 yuan/ton. The intermediaries in the solid market are accompanied by shipments at the price of 1230-12600 yuan/ton. The spot price of some domestic sources is lower.
3. Future Market Forecast

Cost support is acceptable, but given the release of new capacity. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to consolidate.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, since the beginning of August, the quotation of dealers in the n-propanol market has slightly declined. By August 14, the price of the domestic n-propanol packaged dealers was around 11,000 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan from the average price at the end of July (31 July), down to 0.60%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Since the beginning of this month, the n-propanol market has experienced a slight shock adjustment. According to the quotation of n-propanol traders, the price of imported n-propanol (including packaging) in Taiwan has slightly declined. The quotation of a small number of imported n-propanol traders has been reduced by 200 yuan/ton from the end of July, and the quotation of some domestic n-propanol traders has also been reduced. The overall price of some traders remains stable. The price of domestic n-propanol in Shandong distributors is 10,800 yuan/ton (including tax and package). The price of domestic n-propanol in Shanghai distributors is 11,400 yuan/ton (including tax and package). The mainstream price of imported n-propanol in Dalian, Taiwan is 11,600 yuan/ton (including barrel tax). ) Nearby. However, unlike the distribution quotation, the quotation of domestic n-propanol producers has remained firm and increased slightly. The quotation of domestic n-propanol producers has increased by 400 yuan/ton compared with the end of July. At present, the quotation of Nanjing n-propanol producers is around 8900 yuan/ton (water with tax acceptance).

Industry Chain: Propylene oxide market prices have been rising recently. The propylene oxide Market is expected to continue to rise in the short term because of the low inventory, tight supply and no pressure on goods. On August 14, 10000, Wanhua Chemistry Shandong mainstream market cash delivery price is 10450 yuan/ton, East China mainstream market cash delivery price is 10750 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the business association’s forecast, the price of domestic n-propanol has remained stable in the near future, and the import of n-propanol has declined slightly. The specific trend is closely related to the overall market environment of products and the demand of upstream and downstream.

Price Trend

Taking rutile titanium dioxide with sulphuric acid process as an example, according to the data of a large number of business associations, the market of titanium dioxide rose steadily, from 15 200 yuan/ton on August 1 to 15 233.33 yuan/ton on August 9, an increase of 0.22%.

On August 9, the commodity index of titanium dioxide was 72.32, which was the same as yesterday. It was 27.68% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-04), and 39.94% higher than the 51.68 point on December 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market of titanium dioxide has steadily increased, compared with the previous period, the price hardness has increased significantly. On August 2, Longbaili announced that the price of titanium dioxide had been raised by 500 yuan/ton on August 15. The market was facing a tide of price increase. After the price increase, the order situation of enterprises has improved, and the market transaction price has been steadily rising. At present, the domestic price of rutile titanium dioxide with tax is 14100-16000 yuan/ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide with tax is 11300-12800 yuan/ton, and that of chlorinated titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of titanium concentrate in Panxi is stable this week. Titanium ore price without tax is 700-730 yuan/ton and 46,10 titanium ore price without tax is 1080-1200 yuan/ton. The price of 47,20 mines ranges from 1200 to 1230 yuan per ton. Titanium dioxide prices rose, the supply of ore climbing was balanced, and the price of titanium ore temporarily maintained stable operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: Titanium dioxide market prices will soon usher in a rising tide, Titanium dioxide Market leader, other manufacturers follow up one after another, Titanium dioxide market prices will gradually rise on the basis of stability.

Price Trend

This week (8.5-8.9) the domestic price of 1_antimony ingot fell

On August 10, the Sb Commodity Index was 53.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.55% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 14.24% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: the average price of antimony trioxide is 99.5% at 33250 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 34750 yuan/ton. Antimony trioxide price is weakened by the influence of antimony ingot, mainly by the limited impact of long-term trading, downstream wait-and-see, strong market intentions, more low-price supply. Antimony trioxide market will be in a weak position in the short term.

Domestic market: This week’s domestic antimony ingot Market is still off-season market, manufacturers still have a high bid sentiment, but less transactions, downstream demand is flat, wait-and-see. As of Friday, the average price of 2 # low bismuth antimony ingots was 37500 yuan/ton, 1 # antimony ingots 38000 yuan/ton, 0 # antimony ingots 39000 yuan/ton and 2 # high bismuth antimony ingots 36250 yuan/ton. The price is lower than last week.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the performance of basic metals first restrained and then increased. The offshore renminbi “unexpectedly” broke seven, while the US Treasury Department classified China as a currency manipulator. China-US relations deteriorated further. Subjects such as stock markets and bonds in the global financial system suffered a systematic slump. Gold continued to soar. Commodities fell sharply at the beginning of the week. Then, when the US dollar fell, the market panicked. Emotions gradually recovered, commodities showed a low rebound, repair the upward trend, most of the weekend recovered some of the early week’s decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s economic data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated, and worries in the macro environment are not recovering. This week’s low rebound has lifted most metals out of the trough. However, the sustained rebound still needs the promotion of each metal’s own fundamentals and the degree of favor of funds. We should be alert to the gradual withdrawal of large-scale capital into the market in the next week. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels next week, but it is not ruled out that the high may fall. Antimony industry chain will be in the downward channel.

Recently, paint industry giants have announced their first half of 2019 earnings. From the performance of these enterprises, in the first half of 2019, the overall paint industry market was depressed, the downward pressure of the industry increased, and entered a period of deep adjustment.

PPG

PPG’s annual sales in the first half of 2019 were $7.648 billion, down 3.34% from the same period last year, and its net profit was $584 million, down 17.16% from the same period last year. Among them, the first half annual sales of high-performance coatings business was 4.538 billion US dollars, down 2.58% from the same period last year; the profit of the branch was 722 million US dollars, up 2% from the same period last year. The annual sales of industrial coatings business in the first half of the year were 3.11 billion US dollars, down 4.4% from the same period last year, and the profit of the branch was 453 million US dollars, down 2% from the same period last year.

Akzo Nobel

Akzo Nobel’s annual sales in the first half of 2019 were 4.636 billion euros, an increase of 0.3% over the same period last year, basically the same as the same period last year, an increase of 1% in terms of fixed exchange rate. Price/portfolio as a whole increased by 5%, mainly driven by pricing initiatives. As Akzo Nobel focused on value rather than quantity, volume fell by 6%. Except for China, sales fell by 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 296 million euros (2018: 524 million euros), of which 16 million euros belong to the terminated business. In 2018, 226 million belonged to the continuing business and 298 million to the terminated business related to the stripped special chemicals business. The adjusted earnings per share of the going concern business increased to 1.40 euros (2018: 0.87 euros).

The annual sales of decorative coatings business in the first half of the year were 1.849 billion euros, down 0.16% from the same period last year. Adjusted revenue increased to 196 million euros (2018: 179 million euros), and continued pricing initiatives and cost savings offset higher raw material costs and lower production. Sales fell by 5% due to the strategy of over-value production and the decline in sales in China (excluding China).

Sales of high-performance coatings were $2.784 billion, down 0.43% year on year. Pricing initiatives and acquisitions offset lower sales. The impact of acquisition on the income of decorative coatings is 2%, and the impact on Akzo Nobel’s overall income is 1%. On July 18, 2019, Akzo Nobel announced the acquisition of Mapaero to further consolidate its global position in the growing aviation coating industry. Raw material inflation continued in the second quarter of 2019, although lower than in 2018, but increased the cost by 33 million euros in the second quarter. In response to these higher raw material costs, Akzo Nobel will continue to implement pricing initiatives and cost-saving plans.

Sherwin Williams

Xuanwei’s annual sales in the first half of the year were 8.92 billion US dollars, an increase of 180 million US dollars (2.1%) and its net profit was 716 million US dollars, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year. Sales in the second quarter increased by $104 million (2.2%) to $4.88 billion. This quarter’s growth was mainly due to increased paint sales in North American stores, new customer plans launched in 2018 and rising sales prices, partly offset by weak demand in some terminal markets outside the United States and adverse currency conversion changes.

In the first half of the year, sales of the Americas Group amounted to $4.91 billion, an increase of 4.36% compared with the same period last year, while profits of its branches amounted to $943 million, an increase of 4% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the sales of consumer brand groups amounted to $1.46 billion, up 1.8% from the same period last year, while the profit of branches amounted to $229 million, up 38.8% from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, sales of high-performance coatings group were 2.548 billion US dollars, down 2% from the same period last year, and profit of branch was 249 million US dollars, up 6% from the same period last year.

Chairman and CEO John G. Morikis commented that “Xuanwei achieved record results in net sales, EBITDA, pre-tax profits and net operating cash in the second quarter, overcoming imbalances in the demand for terminals outside the United States. Our sales growth in North American paint shops and the continued progress of our pricing initiatives in all segments of the market have jointly pushed the combined adjusted gross margin to 44.9% and supported our continued investment solutions for our customers. We have also continued to manage costs effectively, coupled with higher gross profit margins, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in adjusted earnings per share. We expect gross margin to continue to improve in the second half of the year due to continued sales growth and projected lower raw material prices. We expect that the combined net sales in the third quarter will increase by a low-digit percentage compared with the same period last year. The combined net sales for the whole year of 2019 will increase by 2% to 4% over 2018.

Asher

On July 25, Hershey announced its second quarter results for the first half of 2019. In the first half of the year, net sales of Hershey were $2.276 billion, down 4.5% from a year earlier; net income was $144 million, down 2.7% from a year earlier. In the second quarter, its net sales were $1.158 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, including 3.5% negative foreign exchange impact and 0.9% negative merger and acquisition impact, including the sale of equity in China’s powder coatings joint venture. The main reason for the decline in turnover is the decline in sales of the light vehicle terminal market of Axel, while high-performance coatings are also facing some volume pressures, including the obvious global production slowdown trend in the industrial terminal market.

Basf

Basf’s annual sales in the first half of 2019 were 31.335 billion, down 0.5% from a year earlier. Net profit was 7.866 billion euros (3.159 billion euros in the same period last year), an increase of 149% over the same period last year. The growth was mainly attributed to the merger of Basf’s oil and gas business Wintershall and DEA Deutsche Erdoel, which was completed in May.

In the second quarter, BASF’s pre-interest and pre-tax profit before deducting special items affected by oil and gas trading was 1.05 billion euros, down 47% from the same period last year. Basf said net profits were particularly affected by the decline in profits in the chemicals and materials sector.

In the first half of the year, the sales volume of chemical business was 4.728 billion euros, down 18% from the same period last year; the sales volume of materials business was 5.892 billion euros, down 15% from the same period last year; the sales volume of industrial solutions business was 4.327 billion dollars, down 6% from the same period last year; the sales volume of surface treatment technology business was 7.443 billion euros, up 11% from the same period last year; the sales volume of nutrition and nursing business was increased 11%. The total amount was 3.056 billion euros, an increase of 2% over the same period of last year; the sales volume of agricultural solutions business was 4.445 billion euros, an increase of 38% over the same period of last year.

In the first half of the year, the highest sales were Xuanwei, with $8.92 billion, followed by PPG and Akzo Nobel. Except Xuanwei’s sales and net profit increased slightly, the performance of the other four coatings companies was either flat or declined to varying degrees. The main reasons for the decline in performance include continued weakness in downstream demand, rising prices of raw materials in the upstream and other business problems.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, many enterprises believe that the grim situation of the paint market will continue further, and the profit target for the whole year has been adjusted.

Industry downturn to reduce profit targets

McGarry, chief executive of PPG, said, “Looking ahead to the third quarter, terminal demand in the industry is expected to continue to slump. As we work with customers and suppliers to further offset the impact of rising raw material costs over the years, our profit margin recovery momentum will continue. We will continue to focus on actively managing various businesses, including achieving our goals, to completely offset the revenue impact of changes in customer classification of building coatings from the previous year. In the future, we will continue to maintain strong financial flexibility, and maintain self-discipline in cash allocation, focusing on creating long-term shareholder value.

PPG expects its diluted earnings per share in the third quarter to be between $1.57 and $1.67. At present, PPG adjusts its adjusted earnings per share growth rate to 7% to 10% for the whole year of 2019. It also expects annual sales to grow in single digits, excluding currency conversion effects.

Herschel also updated its performance guidance for 2019 in its semi-annual report, expecting a 2% decline in net sales for the whole year in 2019, with adjusted pre-interest and tax profits of $675-7255,000 and adjusted earnings per share of $170-1.90.

In June this year, Hershey announced the establishment of a Strategic Review Committee to start a comprehensive review of strategic options, including potential sales of the company, changes in capital allocation and the continued implementation of the strategic plan, in order to maximize shareholder value. At present, Asher is actively involved in this process.

“Global economic risks have increased significantly in recent months,” said Bo Mule, executive board chairman of BASF Europe. This is mainly due to geopolitics and the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and its trading partners. These conflicts are not expected to ease in the near future, which will significantly slow global macroeconomic growth, especially in China.

BASF sharply reduced its growth expectations for global industrial production and global chemical production to 1.5% in 2009, down from the previous forecast of 2.7%. Bo Mule said: “The automotive industry is a very important customer industry for BASF, and this year is also a rare recovery. We expect the global automotive industry to decline by 4.5% this year. Customers in all industries are very cautious about future expectations and ordering behavior. Demand growth we can foresee is also relatively sluggish.

Basf is undergoing major overhauls aimed at improving profitability. It said in June that it would reduce its staff by about 5%. So far, about 1100 of the 6,000 employees affected have signed the severance agreement.

In view of the challenging macroeconomic environment, BASF Group adjusted its outlook for 2019 on July 8: BASF now expects sales to decline slightly. The company expects a 30% decline in pre-tax earnings excluding special items. The annual return on capital (ROCE) in 2019 is expected to decline significantly compared with last year.

Akzo Nobel said that in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, demand trends vary according to region and market segments. In the second half of 2019, raw material prices are expected to stabilize. Active pricing strategies and cost-saving projects are in place to meet current market challenges.

Akzo Nobel will continue to implement the transformation plan, hoping to save one-time costs between 2019 and 2020, and achieve the goal of saving 200 million euros by 2020. The goal is to leverage (i.e. the ratio of net debt to pre-interest-tax depreciation and amortization profit) to 1.0-2.0 times by the end of 2020, and strive to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating.

1. Nickel Spot Trend

2. Nickel Trend in London

3. Nickel Trend in Shanghai
As shown in the figure above, nickel prices rose sharply on the 8th, with Shanghai nickel, LME nickel and spot nickel Trinickel rising simultaneously. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on August 8 was 125,166.67 yuan/ton, up 5.48% from 118,666.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, which recorded the biggest one-day increase in recent years. The main contracts of Shanghai nickel futures touched the price limit, up 5.99%, to 124,890 yuan/ton, leading the commodity futures market. LME nickel station reached a new high of $16,000 per ton since April 2018, an increase of more than 10%.

Indonesia’s Mine Ban Policy Suspended and Nickel Price Rising Wilfully

Earlier, there were rumors in the market that the Nickel Mine Association informed all its members on the 4th that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia had signed a ministerial decree banning the export of raw ores, and on Monday (5) the specific content would be announced to the outside world. The market began to speculate that Indonesia might implement the export ban of raw ores ahead of schedule and the price of nickel soared. Rise. But a senior Indonesian mining ministry official said on Monday that he declined to say whether the ore export ban would be implemented ahead of 2022. “As long as there are no new regulations, the existing ones will remain in force,” he said. As soon as the news came out, nickel prices slowed down and even fell slightly yesterday.

But today (8) nickel prices rose sharply again, Shanghai nickel even stopped. Has the news that Indonesia banned the export of raw ore been implemented? But not yet. Bambang Gatot Ariyono, Director-General of the Indonesian Mining Authority, said the industry would follow existing rules and that the market would ignore rumors as long as no new rules were introduced.

Inventory matching of double-low nickel prices is in line with expectations

4. LME Global Nickel Inventory at Historically Low Level

5. Shanghai nickel futures inventory is at its lowest level since 2015

6. Historical Trend of Spot Nickel

(Nickel will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2015)

Through the above three graphical analysis, the value of LME inventory is inversely proportional to the nickel spot price, and the high nickel inventory price is the bottom, and vice versa, indicating the amount of nickel inventory, which has full reference significance for nickel spot price. The current LME global nickel inventory is equivalent to the level of LME global nickel inventory at the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013. The corresponding price is 12400 yuan/ton, which is exactly where nickel is now. It shows that the spot nickel price is basically affected by the LME nickel inventory, and also meets the current price expectations. The current Shanghai nickel futures inventory is equivalent to the level of Shanghai nickel futures inventory at the beginning of 2016. The corresponding price is 67568 yuan/ton, which is far from the current price and has little reference significance.

7. Downstream Stainless Steel Rising

As of August 8, the daily average price of 304/2B stainless steel plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14085.71 yuan/ton (including tax), a slight increase of 1.74% compared with 13845 yuan/ton (including tax) of the previous trading day, an increase of 8% from the lowest level since June 19 this year. Stainless steel prices follow the rise of nickel prices, which supports nickel prices.

Can Nickel Price Stay Strong Waiting for More Stories

The crazy rise in nickel prices should not be due solely to an pending ban on nickel mines. Moreover, senior Indonesian Mining Ministry officials said that as long as there were no new regulations, the current regulations would still be in effect. It shows that the import of nickel ore from Indonesia will not be greatly affected, at least in the short term. On the contrary, the second round of field reviews in the Philippines has more or less affected the import of nickel mines, but on the whole, the scale of only 17 mines will not be too large or too large. Today (8) nickel prices soared sharply, according to the historical LME global inventory corresponding prices, did not exceed expectations, fundamentals did not change significantly, more is caused by speculation. But to rise further, more stories are needed, such as whether nickel stocks can fall sharply further. However, it is clear that Indonesian government officials are playing Taiji, and their attitude is very unclear. The Indonesian government has always been thunderous and raindrops are small. It is wise not to make directional choices in the short term.

In summary, Liu Meimei, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that today’s rise in nickel prices is on the one hand capital speculation, play to rumors, on the other hand, LME nickel inventory is indeed at a historic low, in line with the corresponding price expectations. But whether there is a sustained upward momentum, we need to wait for more story guidance. On the demand side, in addition to the new drive of new energy vehicles, in the context of the trade war, are all walks of life safe and sound? Fortunately, in the early part of the off-season of August and the peak of September, the price of nickel is still strong despite the shortage of supply, but if there is a particularly high increase, see if there are stories that can be told that affect nickel stocks.

Price Trends of Spot Precious Metals

On August 7, 2019, domestic precious metal prices of spot gold and silver rose sharply again. Among them, the spot price of silver rose sharply, the average daily price rose by 1.99%, and the spot price of gold rose by 1.33%.

Data from business associations showed that the average spot price of domestic gold on the 7th day was 339.45 yuan/g, up 7.44% from 315.93 yuan/g on the 1st day, and 19.48% from 284.10 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (01.01). The spot price of silver in China is 4082.67 yuan/kg, which is 5.84% higher than the spot price of 3857.33 yuan/kg on the 1st day, and 12.85% higher than the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), which is 3617.67 yuan/kg.

Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Increase Convergence Since June

Since June, the price of gold, silver and precious metals has increased by about 16 percentage points.

Precious metal gold spot rally started slightly earlier than silver spot. Spot gold prices bottomed in late April in 2019, while spot silver prices bottomed in late May. According to data from business associations, the lowest price of spot gold in a year (April 18) is 278.11 yuan/gram, with an annual amplitude of 22.06%, and the lowest price of spot silver in a year (May 29) is 3481.33 yuan/kg, with an annual amplitude of 17.27%.

A Comparison of Price Trends of Precious Metals Gold and Silver

Increased expectations of global monetary easing

Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in 10 years by 25 basis points from 2.5% to 2.25%, lowered the discount rate from 3% to 2.75%, and adjusted the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 2.35% to 2.10%. Market expectations for US economic policy to enter a counter-cyclically adjusted interest rate reduction cycle have risen, and it is reported that the possibility of a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting of the Federal Reserve (FED) is increasing due to increased downward pressure.

At the same time, monetary policy in developed economies such as the United States and Europe has shifted to easing. At present, with the global economy resonating downward, many central banks are considering interest rate cuts. After Australia, India, Russia, South Korea and other countries announced interest rate cuts, the ECB recently expressed a strong willingness to ease, 7 New Zealand Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Analysts believe that central banks will make insurable interest rate cuts and expect to see more cuts. The external uncertainty caused by the trade situation has prompted all central banks to consider easing policies.

With expectations of global monetary easing intensifying, interest rate cuts by central banks are in itself a good thing for precious metals with hedging and hedging functions. The allocation value of precious metals to maintain and increase value and resist inflation has been highlighted.

Increased uncertainty in the global economic and trade situation

On the trade side, US President Trump said on August 1 that the US would impose a 10% tariff on 300 billion US dollars of imports from China from September 1 this year. The devil’s technique of extreme pressure by the US side has added enormous uncertainties to the ongoing Sino-US trade negotiations.

A press release released by the Ministry of Commerce early Tuesday (August 6) showed that Chinese companies suspended new U.S. agricultural purchases. The State Council Tariff and Tax Commission does not exclude tariffs on imports of new US agricultural products after August 3. Chinese enterprises have suspended purchasing American agricultural products.

At the financial end, on Monday (August 5), the U.S. Treasury Department listed China as a “currency manipulator”. The People’s Bank of China issued a statement Tuesday saying that China deeply regrets this. This label does not conform to the so-called “exchange rate manipulator” quantitative standard formulated by the U.S. Treasury. It is a wayward unilateralism and protectionist act, which seriously undermines international rules and will have a significant impact on the global economy and finance.

The global economic and trade situation is not optimistic, the market demand for hedging has surged, and the price of precious metals has risen.

Bullish sentiment in the market

BlackRock’s iShares Gold Trust gold holdings have climbed to record highs, and hedge funds have increased their bullish bets on gold. According to relevant data, the world’s largest gold ETF – SPDR Gold Trust position increased by 1.76 tons, an increase of 0.21%, compared with the previous day, and the current position is 836.92 tons. COMEX gold futures rose above $1,500 per ounce in the 7th session, spot gold topped $1,490 per ounce, up 1.13 per cent in the day.

The price of precious metals in domestic futures market is rising rapidly.

In Asian market on Monday (August 5), the main contract of gold on Shanghai Futures Exchange (Gold 1912) rose and stopped in the afternoon. The price was 334.00 yuan/g, up 9.55 yuan/g, up 3.99% per day. The highest price was 334.00 yuan/g, the lowest price was 323.40 yuan/g, and the settlement price was 329.20 yuan/g. On Wednesday (August 7), the price was 324.45 yuan/g. In Shanghai, the main gold contract (gold 1912) of Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 341.80 yuan/g, opening at 336.00 yuan/g, up 5.8 yuan/g, a daily increase of 1.41%, a maximum price of 343.30 yuan/g, a minimum price of 335.55 yuan/g and a settlement price of 339.70 yuan/g.

On Monday (August 5), the main contract of silver on Shanghai Futures Exchange (Silver 1912) closed at 4067 yuan/kg, up 170 yuan/kg at 3897 yuan/kg, a daily increase of 4.10%, the highest price was 4088 yuan/kg, the lowest price was 3893 yuan/kg, and the settlement price was 3995 yuan/kg; on Wednesday (August 7) in Asia, Shanghai Futures Exchange, the settlement price was 3995 yuan/kg. The main bank contract (Silver 1912) receives 4124 yuan/kg, starting at 4038 yuan/kg, up 86 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1.70%. The highest price is 4154 yuan/kg, the lowest price is 4043 yuan/kg, and the settlement price is 411 yuan/kg.

Current Trend Chart of Precious Metals Period

How far can the precious metal market go?

Influenced by unilateralism and trade protectionism measures, tariff expectations and listing China as an “exchange rate manipulator”, central banks’expectations of interest rate reduction have been strengthened. At present, there are many uncertain risk events, hedging sentiment in the market is high, and the advantages of precious metals’ hedging, preserving and increasing value, and anti-inflation have been favored by the market. Bank of America Merrill Lynch boldly predicts that gold prices will rise to $2000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2020.

According to historical data of business associations, the precious metal gold commodity index is 90.18, up 1.18 points from yesterday, down 13.36% from the peak of 104.09 points in the cycle (2011-09-06), and up 56.35% from the lowest point of 57.68 on August 02, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date); the Silver Commodity Index is 46.56, up 0.91 points from yesterday, down 54.69% from its peak of 102.76 points (2011-09-06), up 30.16% from its lowest point of 35.77 on Dec. 03, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date). Business analysts believe that the price of precious metals has tended to a relatively high level in the history of gold, but there is still room for a larger rise; silver has a stronger industrial attribute, and the correlation with non-ferrous plate is greater than gold. At present, the relatively low level, precious metals gold natural currency attributes lead to an obvious upward phenomenon. The future market is waiting to see the change of risk aversion enthusiasm, and it is expected that strong operation will be the main trend in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of August 6, the average price of ethanol in the domestic market was 5380 yuan/ton, rising by 0.19% annually and falling by 1.36% year on year. The domestic ethanol market remained stable, with some areas falling.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market is relatively stable. Enterprises in Northeast China have low inventories, orders are shipped one after another, parking enterprises start construction one after another, and downstream enterprises basically maintain just in need of purchasing; Henan enterprises start construction relatively low, some enterprises stop installations, enterprise quotations rise, downstream demand is general; Dongcheng installations in East China stop short, individual enterprise installations open this week, downstream demand. Limited, the market remains stable; enterprises in South China are reluctant to sell at low prices, downstream maintenance just needed to purchase, Guangdong Leizhou Runtai device opened, quotation increased, the market remains stable.

Industry Chain: Corn: Affected by the increase of the cost of maize stock and transportation, the price of maize has been rising recently from the price level. But there is hardly any sign that changes in the supply and demand structure of maize itself are driving prices up. Influenced by the relatively loose supply caused by the weak growth of breeding demand, it is difficult for corn prices to rise at present. Generally speaking, we believe that the overall price of Maize in the near future will continue to be stable, but there is still a risk of callback (not affected by the province itself). It is expected that the market of maize will reverse after the middle and late August. The chances of turning bullish are higher. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market for ethyl acetate is stable. After a temporary stabilization after the fall, the downstream market of ethyl acetate continues to be bearish. The volume of transactions in East China and North China has increased, and orders are concentrated in low-end producers. Ethyl acetate Market in South China continued to be light, with local enterprises offering a small increase of 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, intending to boost the enthusiasm of downstream acquisition, but the terminal demand is mainly rational, market turnover has not increased, traders are still mainly shipped.

3. Future Market Forecast

Enterprises in Northeast China have low inventories and are expected to maintain a stable short-term market supported by favorable supply side. In East China, Dongcheng has stopped short, and some enterprises have opened their devices this week. It is expected that the short-term market will remain in order and operation. Henan is expected to maintain a firm price supported by favorable supply side. Enterprises in South China are expected to keep firm quotations. Downstream to maintain just needed procurement, the short-term market is expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to run smoothly in the short term.

Price trends:

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the implementation of quotation by Sinopec O-Benzene was stable in July. As of July 31, the executed contract price of O-xylene Sinopec was 5,900.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with 5,900.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 6,200.00 yuan/ton compared with the last price adjustment of o-xylene on June 10. The price fell by 4.84%. Prices fell by 13.71% over the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product Analysis

In July, the price of Phenyls fell sharply. In Europe, the price of Phenyls fell by about $120 per ton. External quotations fell sharply, the cost of imported Phenyls fell, the port inventory was low and stable, the inventory consumption was slow, the demand for Phenyls was general, and the market for Phenyls in the future was negative. The restart of Fuhai-Chuang’s 240,000 tons/year o-xylene plant was postponed to August. The o-xylene plant of Liaoyang Petrochemical Company and Luoyang Petrochemical Company stopped. The start-up rate of Sinopec’s o-xylene plant was low, and the supply of o-xylene was reduced. In the future, the price of o-phenyl has a greater driving force.

Factor Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, the price of mixed xylene has been rising concussively since the beginning of June, corresponding to the drop in the price of phenyl, the rise in raw material prices, the fall in the price of phenyl and the sufficient momentum for the rise of phenyl. Overall, Phenyls in the future market are good, and Phenyls have an upward momentum.

As can be seen from the figure, the price of phthalic anhydride has been adjusted by fluctuation, and the overall price is still on the rise. The downstream market is favorable, which has an upward momentum for phthalic anhydride. At the end of July, the price of phthalic anhydride rose again, and the rise of phthalic anhydride in the future may increase, which supports the rise of phthalic anhydride obviously, and the rise of phthalic anhydride in the future is full of momentum.

industry

Since June, the plasticizer market has fallen slightly, by 2.29%, less than the decline in the price of o-phenyl. Overall, there is limited profit margin for o-phenyl, and the rise of plasticizers in the future market may increase, which is good for o-phenyl market.

3. Future market forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data from business associations, the price of o-xylene remained stable in July, but the ups and downs of the parade were unpredictable. As for raw materials, mixed xylene price shocks have risen, downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer market shocks have been adjusted, but overall it is still good for o-phenyl. Compared with the implementation price of Sinopec in June, o-phenyl has accumulated a certain upward momentum. The increase of Sinopec’s implementation price in August is the support of the upward momentum. Adjusting the execution price, alleviating the pressure of the rise of Phenyls in the future, the market of Phenyls in the future is mainly stable. It is expected that the stability of o-phenyl will be maintained in the future, but a small increase in o-phenyl will not be excluded.

Price trends:

According to statistics, this week’s domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene showed a temporary stable trend, with an average weekend price of 7,000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 7,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 15.66% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%, Huizhou refining and chemical plant runs steadily, Fuhaichuang plant starts a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical plant runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX plant runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong plant runs at full load, Qi Luzhou Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Unit starts about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Unit runs normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, recent international crude oil prices rise, domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of p-xylene plant in Asia is more than 70% this week. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX external market fluctuates this week. By the end of the weekend, the closing price of P-xylene market in Asia is 817-819 US dollars per ton FOB Korea and 836-838 US dollars per ton CFR China. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The closing price of PX external market is 817-819 US dollars per ton FOB Korea and 838 dollars per ton CFR China. The shock has brought some support to the domestic market, and the price trend of domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Industry Chain: Domestic crude oil price closed down sharply this week. As of the 1st day, the price of WTI crude oil futures market fell sharply to 53.95 U.S. dollars/barrel, Brent crude oil futures price fell sharply to 60.50 U.S. dollars/barrel. This week, crude oil closing price declined sharply, losing some cost support for downstream petrochemical products. PX Market Price trend is stable for the time being. This week, PTA market prices in the downstream fell by 2.18% this week. By the end of the weekend, East China PTA market talks were around 5400-5500 yuan. Prices in the upstream raw material PX market were stable. This week, PTA plant start-up rate maintained about 96%, downstream polyester plant start-up rate was about 84%, and textile start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell to 62%. Right, downstream PTA and polyester products start-up rate maintained high, PTA price decline has a negative effect on the market price of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Industry: This week’s textile industry market trend shocks, textile industry startup rate has not changed much, crude oil prices have dropped substantially, raw material PX market trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that the recent decline in crude oil prices, coupled with lower PTA market prices, has little change in downstream textile industry start-up rate and normal supply of domestic PX market. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile next week.