1. Nickel Spot Trend
2. Nickel Trend in London
3. Nickel Trend in Shanghai
As shown in the figure above, nickel prices rose sharply on the 8th, with Shanghai nickel, LME nickel and spot nickel Trinickel rising simultaneously. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on August 8 was 125,166.67 yuan/ton, up 5.48% from 118,666.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, which recorded the biggest one-day increase in recent years. The main contracts of Shanghai nickel futures touched the price limit, up 5.99%, to 124,890 yuan/ton, leading the commodity futures market. LME nickel station reached a new high of $16,000 per ton since April 2018, an increase of more than 10%.
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Indonesia’s Mine Ban Policy Suspended and Nickel Price Rising Wilfully
Earlier, there were rumors in the market that the Nickel Mine Association informed all its members on the 4th that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia had signed a ministerial decree banning the export of raw ores, and on Monday (5) the specific content would be announced to the outside world. The market began to speculate that Indonesia might implement the export ban of raw ores ahead of schedule and the price of nickel soared. Rise. But a senior Indonesian mining ministry official said on Monday that he declined to say whether the ore export ban would be implemented ahead of 2022. “As long as there are no new regulations, the existing ones will remain in force,” he said. As soon as the news came out, nickel prices slowed down and even fell slightly yesterday.
But today (8) nickel prices rose sharply again, Shanghai nickel even stopped. Has the news that Indonesia banned the export of raw ore been implemented? But not yet. Bambang Gatot Ariyono, Director-General of the Indonesian Mining Authority, said the industry would follow existing rules and that the market would ignore rumors as long as no new rules were introduced.
Inventory matching of double-low nickel prices is in line with expectations
4. LME Global Nickel Inventory at Historically Low Level
5. Shanghai nickel futures inventory is at its lowest level since 2015
6. Historical Trend of Spot Nickel
(Nickel will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2015)
Through the above three graphical analysis, the value of LME inventory is inversely proportional to the nickel spot price, and the high nickel inventory price is the bottom, and vice versa, indicating the amount of nickel inventory, which has full reference significance for nickel spot price. The current LME global nickel inventory is equivalent to the level of LME global nickel inventory at the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013. The corresponding price is 12400 yuan/ton, which is exactly where nickel is now. It shows that the spot nickel price is basically affected by the LME nickel inventory, and also meets the current price expectations. The current Shanghai nickel futures inventory is equivalent to the level of Shanghai nickel futures inventory at the beginning of 2016. The corresponding price is 67568 yuan/ton, which is far from the current price and has little reference significance.
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7. Downstream Stainless Steel Rising
As of August 8, the daily average price of 304/2B stainless steel plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14085.71 yuan/ton (including tax), a slight increase of 1.74% compared with 13845 yuan/ton (including tax) of the previous trading day, an increase of 8% from the lowest level since June 19 this year. Stainless steel prices follow the rise of nickel prices, which supports nickel prices.
Can Nickel Price Stay Strong Waiting for More Stories
The crazy rise in nickel prices should not be due solely to an pending ban on nickel mines. Moreover, senior Indonesian Mining Ministry officials said that as long as there were no new regulations, the current regulations would still be in effect. It shows that the import of nickel ore from Indonesia will not be greatly affected, at least in the short term. On the contrary, the second round of field reviews in the Philippines has more or less affected the import of nickel mines, but on the whole, the scale of only 17 mines will not be too large or too large. Today (8) nickel prices soared sharply, according to the historical LME global inventory corresponding prices, did not exceed expectations, fundamentals did not change significantly, more is caused by speculation. But to rise further, more stories are needed, such as whether nickel stocks can fall sharply further. However, it is clear that Indonesian government officials are playing Taiji, and their attitude is very unclear. The Indonesian government has always been thunderous and raindrops are small. It is wise not to make directional choices in the short term.
In summary, Liu Meimei, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that today’s rise in nickel prices is on the one hand capital speculation, play to rumors, on the other hand, LME nickel inventory is indeed at a historic low, in line with the corresponding price expectations. But whether there is a sustained upward momentum, we need to wait for more story guidance. On the demand side, in addition to the new drive of new energy vehicles, in the context of the trade war, are all walks of life safe and sound? Fortunately, in the early part of the off-season of August and the peak of September, the price of nickel is still strong despite the shortage of supply, but if there is a particularly high increase, see if there are stories that can be told that affect nickel stocks.
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