According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA rebounded slightly. On November 14, the average market price was 4762 yuan / ton, up 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, down 29.08% year on year. The trading atmosphere is light, and the buyers are mainly traders and suppliers. The futures market was warm and volatile, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4706 yuan / ton, up 14 yuan / ton or 0.30% compared with the previous trading day. Daily trading volume increased by 316900 to 12811000, and position increased by 9462 to 1725200.

In terms of devices, on the 13th, Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million ton PTA device was shut down for maintenance due to failure, and it is planned to restart within 4-5 days. Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart the 700000 ton PTA plant near November 27 after shutdown for maintenance. Up to now, the starting load of PTA is 91%.

Statistics of changes in domestic mainstream PTA plants unit: yuan / ton

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down on November 12, with planned maintenance of 2 weeks

Ningbo Taihua ＞ 120, Nov. 13, fault short stop

Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on November 13 and planned to restart on November 27

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. load 50% on October 30, 1990

Chuanneng Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped short on November 1, with current load of 80%

Jialong Petrochemical will stop for maintenance on August 2 and restart on November 15

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

The raw material market has formed a good support for PTA. The decline of crude oil inventory has pushed up the international oil price. As of November 13, the closing price of WTI main futures of international crude oil was $57.12/barrel, up $0.32/barrel compared with the previous day, and the closing price of Brent main futures was $62.37/barrel, up $0.31/barrel compared with the previous day. The closing price of PX market in Asia is 768 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 4 US dollars / ton from the previous day,

The downstream polyester production and sales are light, and the market is once again in a cold phase. The quotation of mainstream factories is basically stable. Due to the continuous loss of some specifications of products, some enterprises have increased 50 yuan / ton, including the poy150d / 48F report 6800-7200 yuan / ton. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%. Next spring and summer, some orders and regular customers’ orders will be stable all the year round. The price of some partial thick silk fabrics will be increased compared with the previous period. However, the overall domestic market demand is still weak, and the sentiment of material inquiry is still poor.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, thinks that at present, PTA operation is at a low level due to the cost support and the increase of plant maintenance. Under this support, PTA is expected to maintain shock consolidation in the short term.

On November 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.06% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.37% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China continues to fall. The downstream factories maintain the rigid demand for purchasing. The factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5900-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers’ prices in the site are recalled, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, the import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, and the quotation has declined. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port has declined, and the stock in the port is at a low level. The external quotation of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are given, The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7300-7600 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is declining, and the upstream ox price remains low. Affected by the cost decline, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly lower trend in the later period.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 12, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5460 yuan / ton, the price rose 1.11% month on month, and the price fell 1.62% year on year. The domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and the market in some regions is strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic ethanol market is stable temporarily. The ethanol market in Northeast China operates stably for the time being, and large-scale factories execute contracts, while liquor companies wait and see; the ethanol market in Jilin Province transits stably for the time being, and large-scale factories execute contracts for the time being, and liquor companies temporarily hold prices; the ethanol market in East China maintains stable operation, and there are not many stocks in the market, and Su alcohol stops, and liquor companies have a stable mentality; the ethanol market in Shandong Province operates stably, and the demand is stable, and under the support of contracts, the mentality of large-scale factories is stable Stable; the ethanol market in Northern Jiangsu maintains stable operation, the actual single and rigid needs to be promoted and maintained, the supply declines, there are not many spot goods, and the mood of liquor enterprises is temporarily stable; the ethanol market in southern Jiangsu is in light and stable operation, the downstream demand continues to be light, and there is no significant fluctuation in negotiation; the ethanol market in Henan Province is temporarily stable operation, the on-site device shutdown arrangement, and the terminal stock demand is high. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is temporarily stable, with local turbulence.

Industry chain: corn: the peak of corn production in Northeast China has not yet arrived, the demand for feed in the downstream is still weak, and the demand for corn starch is not strong in the peak season. The supply of corn market in the future will be gradually relaxed, a small number of enterprises will raise prices to supplement the stock, which is difficult to support the overall recovery of corn market prices, and the corn market will once again turn to the situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the domestic corn prices will continue as a whole in November Continue to adjust slightly.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is stable at the beginning of the week. Due to export and shipment, the inventory of the enterprise is tight. However, domestic demand is not good, and the market is expected to stabilize in the near future.

III. future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market may be at a high level, and the long-term market may be weak with the increase of supply.

I. price trend:

November 9 hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 56.11, flat with yesterday, down 45.00% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.92% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week, the number of hydrogenated benzene enterprises decreased slightly. As of Friday, it was about 5150 yuan / ton in East China, 4975 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 50 yuan / ton lower than last week. This week, the price of pure benzene and its downstream products first rose and then fell. The transaction situation of pure benzene industry chain was not good, which had a certain impact on the market of hydrogenated benzene. In addition, this week, the commencement of hydrogenated benzene enterprises dropped to the recent low, the market atmosphere was weak, the pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remained, and the price of manufacturers was firm, but the price of downstream products fell in the second half of the week, the market atmosphere was poor, and hydrogenated benzene It’s hard to get a good price.

Industrial chain: crude oil: pure benzene: this week, the atmosphere of pure benzene negotiation in East China is stronger, driving the market to be better. This week, the spot supply of pure benzene market was tight and the source of goods was concentrated. The port inventory continued to be less than 100000 tons, and the price of pure benzene was supported higher.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, the crude oil market will be boosted by the macro benefits. The supply pressure of pure benzene is large, but the downstream demand is weak, so the market is difficult to have a strong support, mainly consolidation. As a result, the price of hydrogenated benzene market is difficult and there is room for shocks.

I. trend analysis

According to data from the business agency, nickel prices fell sharply this week, followed by a narrow range of shocks. At the beginning of the week, the nickel price was 137200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the nickel price fell to 134483.33 yuan / ton, slightly down 1.98%, up 50.25% compared with the beginning of the year, up 32.93% year on year.

II. Market trend analysis

This week, Indonesia’s ban on mining policy came into effect, which has a significant impact on nickel enterprises. The Philippines is hard to meet the import demand of China’s nickel mines, and nickel mines will face a shortage. However, the positive factor has been fully realized in the price, nickel price has increased by 50% compared with the beginning of the year, and the short-term action is insufficient.

The Shanghai nickel index was 131920 at the beginning of this week, and since then prices have been weak, closing at 127900 on Friday, down 3.27% on a weekly basis. At the beginning of this week, LUNI LME3 was $16735, closing at $16220 at the end of Friday, down 3.28% on a weekly basis.

Downstream, the recent spot price of 304 stainless steel continued to decline, showing weak performance. Although the 300 series stainless steel inventory is at a historical high level, unless there is a serious loss, the output may remain at a high level, and at present, some of the steel plant inventory begins to shift to the middle and lower reaches. If there is no abnormal improvement in later demand, the supply and demand pattern of 300 series stainless steel will continue to weaken.

Market aspect: this week, nickel transaction was flat, the supply of goods was normal, and the downstream delivery was limited.

III. future prospects

According to nickel analyst of non ferrous branch of business cooperation, there is no major change in nickel fundamentals this week, supply is tight, downstream stainless steel inventory is high, demand is weak, and nickel price is expected to remain volatile.

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite has been kept at a low level. According to statistics, the average price of domestic fluorite as of November 7 is 2877.78 yuan / ton, and the price trend of domestic fluorite is mainly stable. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3000 yuan / ton 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the price trend of domestic fluorite has remained low and fluctuated. First, the national environmental protection inspection shows that the operation rate of fluorite is average. In 2019, some domestic mines and flotation units were shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite in the site normal. Some merchants still have a strong price intention, and the price of domestic fluorite has not continued to decline. Second, as the temperature drops, the northern fluorite manufacturers will be limited, and the domestic supply of fluorite will decline. The price of fluorite in the site will be supported to a certain extent, and the price of fluorite will remain stable. Third, the price of hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant in the downstream market is at a low level in the near future, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite price has not improved. In the near future, the hydrofluoric acid Market and the refrigerant industry have no obvious positive support, and it is expected that the price of fluorite will rise under greater pressure in the later period.

The upstream and downstream market is general, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

As of 7 days, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9640 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is weak. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is 8500-9500 yuan / ton. The supply of hydrofluoric acid market is sufficient The market price is low.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is more than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is sufficient at present. In the near future, the goods in the site are in general condition. In the near future, due to the poor demand in the downstream and the support of the upstream fluorite price, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers report serious losses, but the good support is insufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is not expected to rise. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the mainstream price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the transaction price in the market is low, and businesses purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low. In the near future, the demand for refrigerants is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is expected to remain low in the later period.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), the domestic PVC price on November 6 was 6632.5 yuan / ton, up 0.19% compared with the domestic PVC price on the previous day (05), up 3.1%%.

II. Market analysis

Products: PVC spot market generally stable, individual quotations slightly up, the market as a whole trading tepid. At present, the spot supply is tight, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream products industry is general, the rigid replenishment needs to be maintained, the market transaction center moves down, and the seasonal off-season, there is no obvious good signal. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 6580-6680 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6620-6670 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 6640-6860 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Recently, the ex factory price of calcium carbide has fallen, the market supply is sufficient, the inventory is overstocked, and the price is under pressure. The downstream products enterprises are generally acceptable, the market demand has not been significantly improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm is poor, which is difficult to boost the PVC market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 5, 2019, there are three commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, namely, pet (1.71%), natural rubber (0.66%) and PP (0.39%) A total of 1 kind of goods declined on a month on month basis, and PVC (- 0.26%) was the product that declined The average price of this day is 0.16%

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, PVC spot supply is tight, the downstream product industry continues to maintain the rigid demand for replenishment, the market transaction center moves down, coupled with the seasonal off-season, the market confidence is insufficient, and it is expected that the PVC market will mainly be consolidated in the short term.

On November 5, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.18% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the 5th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid price remains low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the stock situation in the fluorite field is general, and the price trend in the fluorite market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of the 5th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remained low. As of the 5th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9640 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant was generally, the demand for fluorite was weak, and the price of fluorite remained low and volatile. In the near future, the transaction market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is general, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market is volatile. From the perspective of market supply, the market of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the supply capacity of the market source has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the affected price of fluorite market is at a low level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is low and the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite in the North may decrease. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may maintain a low trend.

On November 3, the rare earth index was 340, unchanged from yesterday, 66.00% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.46% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 365500 yuan / ton, 20000 yuan / ton to 2.05 million yuan / ton and 660000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 289500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1515000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 355000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 365500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1515000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the market price trend of rare earth has continued to decline, and the domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Due to the increase of Myanmar’s supply, the prices of dysprosium, terbium and oxide have been falling continuously, and the prices of heavy rare earth have fallen sharply. In the near future, the inquiry list of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has declined, and the price of light rare earth oxide has declined slightly. In the near future, the light rare earth merchants in the field are not in good condition, and the recent trading situation in the field is general. The supply of rare earth in China is normal. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the environmental protection supervision in the whole country. The production of rare earth is special, especially the radiation hazards of some products make the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future There is a strong wait-and-see mood among large enterprise groups in the market. The rare earth market is generally trading, and the trading volume is at a low level.

In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business society expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, and the domestic order of rare earth industry will be rectified, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level, but the downstream demand for rare earth will not improve in the near future, and the supply of heavy rare earth import will increase, and the rare earth market is expected to continue to decline.

I. price trend

In October 2019, the butadiene market fell sharply, and the price curve was like a “slide” business agency monitoring. At the beginning of the month, the price of butadiene was 11581 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of butadiene was 9345 yuan / ton, down 19.30% in the month, down 8.04% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in October, the domestic butadiene market fell sharply. Before the festival and during the National Day holiday, the Northeast manufacturers actively exported to ease the holiday inventory pressure, and some manufacturers continued to ship during the National Day holiday. Under the supply pressure of the northern market, the market gradually weakened. After the festival, the market bearish atmosphere is obvious, in addition to the weak external market, a large number of ocean shipping prices are low, dragging the market into the downward channel. Although it is necessary to replenish the position at the low price node and digest part of the spot inventory in the middle and late period, it is difficult to open a significant price difference in the north and South markets. The spot supply is abundant in the north region, and the downstream bearish expectation leads to the low inquiry. Meanwhile, the low price news of the far month cargo affects the bearish expectation of the merchants on the future market, and the downward trend of the market is hard to change. In terms of price, as of October 30, the delivery price of superior products in Shandong was 8500-8600 yuan / ton, down 2550 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the price in East China was 9000 yuan / ton, down 3400 yuan / ton.

For enterprises: Sinopec East China butadiene supply price dropped by 2600 yuan / ton to 9900 yuan / ton in total; by the end of the month, the base price of North Huajin butadiene was 8710 yuan / ton, and the total volume of domestic and foreign sales was 1118 tons due to the poor transaction of some nodes; by the end of the month, Fushun Petrochemical’s base price was 7900 yuan / ton, the transaction price was 7900-7950 yuan / ton, and the total volume of monthly sales was 2040 tons; Inner Mongolia Gujutai 70000 T / a unit was shut down for maintenance on October 14-20, and the listing price was 8200 yuan / T by the end of the month, with a drop of 3800 yuan / T on a month on month basis; shenhuaning coal butadiene unit was in stable operation, with a reference to 7560 yuan / T on a month on month basis, with a drop of 2840 yuan / T on a month on month basis; India haldiya Petrochemical’s 97000 T / a butadiene unit and Malaysia pengerang’s 180000 T / a butadiene unit in the month Set to restart one after another.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%). There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the future market, the positive aspects are: the rigid demand in the north and the lower reaches is still there; the pressure of profit has the expectation that the operation of the oxidation and dehydrogenation unit will decline; the profit of the lower reaches industry will slightly increase. On the negative side, the external market is weak; the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is difficult to support; in November, the ocean shipping supply is abundant; from December to January, there is no lack of low price news. In the near future, the supply of ocean going cargo is abundant, the external market is wide and falling, and there are many lower prices. In addition, the pressure of spot supply in the north is obvious, and it is difficult for the downstream to effectively alleviate the current supply pressure, so the short-term market is hard to find good support. On the one hand, the recent market pressure comes from the arrival supplement of imported ships. It is heard that Iran and some ocean going ships are expected to arrive at the port, and the price is relatively low on the spot. At the same time, some businesses began to pay attention to the production of new butadiene units of Dalian Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical in the later stage, and the inquiry intention for the far month ships is low, which continues to drag the market. Generally speaking, butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that although the domestic downstream rigid demand will temporarily support the spot market at the low price node, the market trend may continue to be weak as a whole. It is suggested to pay attention to the supply side news and the internal and external price guidance.