I. trend analysis

According to data from the business agency, nickel prices fell sharply this week, followed by a narrow range of shocks. At the beginning of the week, the nickel price was 137200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the nickel price fell to 134483.33 yuan / ton, slightly down 1.98%, up 50.25% compared with the beginning of the year, up 32.93% year on year.

II. Market trend analysis

This week, Indonesia’s ban on mining policy came into effect, which has a significant impact on nickel enterprises. The Philippines is hard to meet the import demand of China’s nickel mines, and nickel mines will face a shortage. However, the positive factor has been fully realized in the price, nickel price has increased by 50% compared with the beginning of the year, and the short-term action is insufficient.

The Shanghai nickel index was 131920 at the beginning of this week, and since then prices have been weak, closing at 127900 on Friday, down 3.27% on a weekly basis. At the beginning of this week, LUNI LME3 was $16735, closing at $16220 at the end of Friday, down 3.28% on a weekly basis.

Downstream, the recent spot price of 304 stainless steel continued to decline, showing weak performance. Although the 300 series stainless steel inventory is at a historical high level, unless there is a serious loss, the output may remain at a high level, and at present, some of the steel plant inventory begins to shift to the middle and lower reaches. If there is no abnormal improvement in later demand, the supply and demand pattern of 300 series stainless steel will continue to weaken.

Market aspect: this week, nickel transaction was flat, the supply of goods was normal, and the downstream delivery was limited.

III. future prospects

According to nickel analyst of non ferrous branch of business cooperation, there is no major change in nickel fundamentals this week, supply is tight, downstream stainless steel inventory is high, demand is weak, and nickel price is expected to remain volatile.