Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic caprolactam market rose in early February, and the spot price generally rose. As of February 9, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises in the business community was 11466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.71% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

The price of caprolactam in China rose rapidly and the market was positive. At present, Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price 12000 yuan / ton, cash factory, factory capacity 300000 tons, the actual deal can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 12400 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, about 80% of the unit operating rate. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 12100 yuan / T. The 450000 T / a unit is now back to normal operation, and it will be delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 12100 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

The price of upstream pure benzene is different from that of last month. In February, the price of pure benzene rises rapidly. According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average domestic spot price rose by 18.49% in the first week alone. At present, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream concentrated goods preparation, the high-level inventory of pure benzene enterprises in the early stage empties rapidly, and the pure benzene inventory of East China port continues to decline. In addition, the unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some units in East China led to the decrease of supply and the rapid rise of prices. In addition, the early downstream of pure benzene Market bearish psychology, mainly on-demand procurement. And the reduction of transportation before the festival and the increase of freight also promoted the price of pure benzene to rise. Pure benzene market is expected to stabilize prices during the Spring Festival consolidation.

Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe that: at present, the upstream pure benzene market is strong, strong and strong support for caprolactam cost. The improvement in the supply side of caprolactam seems to be very limited. As soon as the shipment volume recovered at the beginning of last month, Haili Chemical Co., Ltd. reported that the unit load was reduced. In addition, the operating rate of Baling Hengyi also fluctuates, and the pattern of tight supply of goods in the yard has not changed substantially. In terms of downstream PA6, the starting level before the festival is relatively high, and caprolactam price is just needed to be raised, while high price and small orders are often seen in terms of transaction and investment. At present, the domestic caprolactam cost side, supply side, demand side three good convergence, market direction is clear. It is expected that caprolactam market will continue to run high after the festival.

During the week (2.1-2.5), the price of NBR was mainly stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of NBR was stable at 18866.67 yuan / ton this week, and 18266.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price drop of 2.12%.

The ex factory price of NBR in China is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 5, the price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable: n41e was 15200 yuan / ton; 3305e was 16300 yuan / ton; 3308e was 16600 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of NBR in Ningbo shunze was stable, 3355 was 16500 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of NBR is stable, and there is no market near the Spring Festival. The mainstream market of NBR n41e is 15600-15900 yuan / ton, and shunze 3355 is around 17000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials decreased slightly, and the cost did not support nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of February 5, the butadiene price was 6051 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.08% compared with 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Finally, the operating rate of NBR downstream rubber products is low in the near future, the demand is cold near the Spring Festival, and there is little willingness to replenish more storage in the downstream, which weakens the support for NBR.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business community believe that raw material prices are low, downstream demand is weak, and NBR is mainly weak and stable before the Spring Festival.

On February 4, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there are 0 kinds of rising commodities, 0 kinds of falling commodities and 5 kinds of rising and falling commodities. Stable products include: hydrofluoric acid, fluorite, aluminum fluoride, cryolite and chloroform.

On February 4, the price trend of fluorine chemical raw material market was temporarily stable, with the price of raw material fluorite at 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight, but the downstream market rose recently, and the fluorite price was affected and went up. As of April 4, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of the supply in the market, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising. As of the 4th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10566.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the hydrofluoric acid in the market is in stock The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong is weak. The downstream market is in the off-season as a whole, and the demand for trichloromethane is poor. With the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the starting of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipment situation of enterprises is flat. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics transportation is limited to a certain extent, and the enterprises bid for shipment in order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of January 31, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 8333 yuan / ton, which was up 1000 yuan / ton or 13.12% compared with the lowest point of the month (7366 yuan / ton on January 11), and down 933 yuan / ton or 10% compared with 9266 yuan / ton on January 1. The maximum amplitude of n-butanol was 20.50%.

N-butanol in early January with “cold air” market fell to the bottom

At the beginning of 2021, China’s domestic n-butanol market encountered the “cold air” of weak demand, Especially in the first ten days of January, affected by the strong wait-and-see sentiment of downstream procurement, slow replenishment, poor demand and other factors, the domestic n-butanol market went down for several days, with a daily drop of 100-300 yuan / ton. As of the 11th, the average factory reference price of domestic n-butanol had dropped from 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7300 yuan / ton, with a price drop of nearly 2000 yuan / ton, or 20.50%.

The trend is still strong, n-butanol rose by 13% in the second half of the year

Then, after n-butanol rose to a high level, the market transaction situation was general, 16. On the 17th, the n-butanol market entered a narrow consolidation operation. The spot inventory of n-butanol in East China and South China was low, and the factory offer was still strong. On the 18th, the downstream purchasing intention continued to weaken, and the new orders in Northwest China were not smooth, which suppressed the shipment in Shandong market. Some factories in Shandong began to slightly reduce the ex factory price of n-butanol by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market fluctuated for two days. On the 21st, the turnover of n-butanol market in East China improved, which gradually warmed up the trading atmosphere of Shandong factories. The manufacturers supported the prices. The trading center of n-butanol market continued to move upward, and the factory quotation continued to rise. As of the 31st, the average reference price of n-butanol market had been adjusted back to around 8400 yuan / ton, up more than 13% compared with the low price in January (7300 yuan / ton).

As of January 31, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 8333 yuan / ton. Compared with the lowest price of the month (7366 yuan / ton on January 11), the average price increased by 1000 yuan / ton, or 13.12%; compared with 9266 yuan / ton on January 1, the average price decreased by 933 yuan / ton, or 10%. The maximum amplitude of n-butanol was 20.50%.

Upstream, in the middle and early January, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price showed a ladder like rise. As of the 19th, the market turnover was between 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7450 yuan / ton. In late January, the trading atmosphere in the market was cold and mainly wait-and-see, and the propylene market began to fall. As of January 31, the market turnover was between 7000 and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7000 yuan / ton.

Downstream factories just need to purchase, the trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the market will be stable and strong

The downstream factories just need to purchase, the overall trading of n-butanol is acceptable, the inventory pressure of the factory is small, and the confidence of the industry is still there years ago. Therefore, the n-butanol analysts of the business community believe that the domestic n-butanol market will be stable and strong in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market in January showed an “inverted V”, with a slight decline on the whole. By the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 5725 yuan / ton, which was 0.87% lower than the price of 5775 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decline of 7.29%. The spot supply on the floor was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was firm.

In the first ten days of January, the price of phthalic anhydride decreased slightly, but in the last ten days, the market price of phthalic anhydride recovered, the market situation of phthalic anhydride was normal, the downstream demand was normal in the near future, the price trend of o-benzene was stable, the plasticizer Market improved slightly, and the price of phthalic anhydride remained firm. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride in the market was firm. The downstream plasticizer industry rose slightly. The actual transaction was not significantly favorable, and the price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China remained volatile, with limited high-end transactions on the market. In East China, the mainstream of negotiation on the supply of neighboring France was 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of negotiation on the supply of naphthalene was 5500-5600 yuan / ton. In North China, the mainstream quotation on the market of phthalic anhydride was 5600-5800 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride remained, and the downstream procurement did not increase significantly, and the power of continuous rise was insufficient.

In January, the price trend of domestic o-benzene declined. The market price remained at 4700 yuan / ton. In January, the price dropped by 6.0%. The decline of domestic o-benzene price was due to the bad influence of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import o-benzene market in port area remained at a low level. The external quotation of o-benzene did not change much. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual transaction price was discussed in detail. In addition, there was a strong wait-and-see mood among o-benzene merchants in the market, The price of o-benzene fluctuated at a low level, the price of raw material o-benzene was low, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride was bad, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the market dropped slightly.

In late January, the market price of phthalic anhydride downstream DOP was lower. According to the monitoring of business agency, by the end of the month, the domestic DOP price was 9550 yuan / ton, and the price of isooctanol in the market was mainly lower. The equipment start-up of DOP enterprises was temporarily stable, the PVC price fluctuated, and the demand of downstream customers was low. Plasticizer market has a strong upward momentum and downward pressure still exists. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 9250-9600 yuan / ton. The downstream market has fallen, and the domestic price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly.

On the whole, the crude oil price has remained at a high level in the near future. In addition, winter is the peak sales season for the plasticizer industry, and the phthalic anhydride market is supported by favorable conditions, so the price is mainly volatile.

In the future, the domestic price trend of o-benzene is mainly volatile, but the transaction market of plasticizer has little change, and the DOP price still has room to rise. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the future.

The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream continued to rise slightly, and the market price of aluminum fluoride in some areas increased by 50 yuan / ton, but on the whole, the ex factory price of aluminum fluoride enterprises remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on January 29, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price trend of fluorite market rose, with the domestic fluorite price of 2741 yuan / ton as of the 29th. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply was tight. As the temperature dropped, some manufacturers in the North stopped their plants, the supply in the yard was slightly tight, and the domestic fluorite price rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite on the floor is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rises due to the positive support.

Although the market price of aluminum fluoride in some areas has increased slightly by 50 yuan / ton, the overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business society thinks: the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices continue to rise, the cost side is good for the aluminum fluoride Market, and the aluminum fluoride market price is expected to rise.

Commodity index: on January 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.11, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.75% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.30% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Market trend: data show that in January 2021, water treatment plants in main production areas of Henan resumed production one after another, and the output of polyacrylamide increased, but the market demand did not change much, leading to a slight decline in the market of polyacrylamide. According to local manufacturers, because environmental protection requirements are still strict, some manufacturers resume production, some still stop production, production increase is limited, some manufacturers do not have much inventory, and some downstream orders still need to be scheduled. Business Club (100) ppi.com ）Monitoring data showed that the domestic market of polyacrylamide (cationic, molecular weight 12 million, ionicity 10-30) declined slightly on January 1, with the mainstream quotation of 14560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 14420 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a slight decline of about 1%; among them, the highest price of 14560 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 14360 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 1.37%.

Industry situation: the market of upstream raw material acrylonitrile first went down and then went up, and then went back slightly; in terms of supply, domestic supply decreased, domestic acrylonitrile export increased significantly, and the domestic market was slightly tight towards the end of the month: the mainstream quotation at the beginning of the month was about 12150 yuan / ton, which went down to 11500 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, rebounded to 12000 yuan / ton in the last week, and then went back to 11700-11800 yuan / ton again . Main plant developments: Shandong Haijiang’s 130 kt / a acrylonitrile plant is in continuous shutdown; on January 10, Anqing Petrochemical’s 80 kt / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance due to failure, and it was restarted on January 28; Formosa Plastics stopped for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8; petkim stopped in July 2020 and is expected to resume in February 2021.

Downstream demand: in winter, the downstream demand is relatively stable. However, because the polyacrylamide manufacturers in the main production areas only partially resumed production at the beginning of this month, the supply first increased relatively. Later, due to the influence of environmental protection requirements, some of the resumed manufacturers stopped production again, and the supply tension of the whole market is more obvious than that in the earlier stage. Therefore, the biggest driving factor of price change this month is the influence of the supply side and the influence of downstream demand not big.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the production of the manufacturers in the main production areas in the heating season will continue to be limited by environmental protection, and the tightening of the supply side is conducive to the market; however, near the Spring Festival, the demand for water treatment projects is becoming increasingly weak, and the market is bad; the price of raw material acrylonitrile is slightly increased due to the tightening of supply at the end of the month, and several manufacturers stop production, which affects the output and increases the export volume, as the impact of the cost side In terms of influencing factors, it will boost the future market of polyacrylamide to a certain extent, but after all, during the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is not much, and manufacturers generally shut down during the holidays. Considering the current factors, it is expected that the polyacrylamide market will be stable.